I believe a correction is in order over the next month (ES is currently at 1867 tonight). . My first target for swing low (talking over weeks to months) is 1763. But obviously not in straight line. But the process is underway and will take time to stair step down after false rallies. Final target is taking out 1714 , getting us to around 10 percent retrace.
Technicals view - as you stated, divergences of S&P and Dow to the Nasdaq and Russell. Weak new highs/new lows. Leadership is missing from the momentum names.
Chartists view - I can see the S&P with a "island reversal" pattern that just happened today on the daily chart. S&P recent all time highs were very very light volume .
Sentiment view - S&P just hit its high this week, the vix just bottomed at around 11.88-12.15. Meaning when it came to actual dollars to peoples point of views, they did not fear the downside at all as they did not put their dollars to that belief. This lack of fear in the face of what looks to be very weak internals, just means that people have become very very complacent at these levels and new highs over these past 3 years and are they are basically sleep walking.
Seasonal view - Sell in May , etc etc, you get the point.
What negates this view? if we get a quick rip roaring jump up on unexpected news where all technicals reset to new highs and get back in line.