Market commentary
- Thread starter ivica
- Start date
Thanks B
Always can be better but can't complain. I think we read market very well and we are ready for any suprises and all is explained in market commenatry. intraday is on other place. Hope you are doing well to. Please pm me today, like to ask you something.Thanks again.
best luck to all
Market commentary for 03/31/2008
Good day!
Another week is gone and the rounding lows pattern is more and more possible. Friday was another untradeable day. The choppy action started right after the open and continued until the end of day with more weakness again on the DIA/SPY side. We can see that on the 60 min charts. The QQQQ stayed in a channel while the DIA and the SPY broke down under it. Volume was light and under average.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq60.jpg
This kind of market action is expected after we see declining volume on an upside move from lows. It also brings higher odds for rounding lows on the daily charts. For that possibility the indices need to break under all their daily moving average support and break near the daily lows. The SPY closed under its' 20sma 5 min, while the DIA closed above it and the QQQQ is obviously the strongest and closed above itâs 10sma support area. As traders we must recognize risk level and it is very high. The reason for that is the number of support and resistance areas in a very small area and anyone of them can be trigger a reversal. We can clearly see that on the daily charts
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq.jpg
On the weekly charts we can see that the DIA bounced from its' 20/100sma resistance area. The SPY bounced from its' 10sma and its' 200sma support area is very close, and the QQQQ bounced from its' 100sma and closed above its' 10sma. That is another example of the number of close support and resistance areas. All that increases odds for more of this kind of action with daily bounces between the previous highs and lows (range action)
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq.jpg
Monday will be a very important day for that possibility. If we will see another selling day then very possibly the indices will retest their lows. If we see a strong reversal then odds for new highs will increase. My bias is, unfortunately, more daily choppy action with more weakness. A weekly pivot is another possibility as well. That is all that the charts are suggesting as possibilities and scenarios. All this indecision creates this very high risk environment, especially for swing trades and overnight trades. It is important to see a move in the right direction to even consider holding a position overnight and in addition it should be done only with reasonable lots. Intraday action and trading plans based on smaller time frames will be lower risk and therefore will be my focus. I will again scan for swing moves and I will use those ideas for day trades. CASH IS POSITION TOO!!!!. Please remember that. If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
Another week is gone and the rounding lows pattern is more and more possible. Friday was another untradeable day. The choppy action started right after the open and continued until the end of day with more weakness again on the DIA/SPY side. We can see that on the 60 min charts. The QQQQ stayed in a channel while the DIA and the SPY broke down under it. Volume was light and under average.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq60.jpg
This kind of market action is expected after we see declining volume on an upside move from lows. It also brings higher odds for rounding lows on the daily charts. For that possibility the indices need to break under all their daily moving average support and break near the daily lows. The SPY closed under its' 20sma 5 min, while the DIA closed above it and the QQQQ is obviously the strongest and closed above itâs 10sma support area. As traders we must recognize risk level and it is very high. The reason for that is the number of support and resistance areas in a very small area and anyone of them can be trigger a reversal. We can clearly see that on the daily charts
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq.jpg
On the weekly charts we can see that the DIA bounced from its' 20/100sma resistance area. The SPY bounced from its' 10sma and its' 200sma support area is very close, and the QQQQ bounced from its' 100sma and closed above its' 10sma. That is another example of the number of close support and resistance areas. All that increases odds for more of this kind of action with daily bounces between the previous highs and lows (range action)
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03312008qqqq.jpg
Monday will be a very important day for that possibility. If we will see another selling day then very possibly the indices will retest their lows. If we see a strong reversal then odds for new highs will increase. My bias is, unfortunately, more daily choppy action with more weakness. A weekly pivot is another possibility as well. That is all that the charts are suggesting as possibilities and scenarios. All this indecision creates this very high risk environment, especially for swing trades and overnight trades. It is important to see a move in the right direction to even consider holding a position overnight and in addition it should be done only with reasonable lots. Intraday action and trading plans based on smaller time frames will be lower risk and therefore will be my focus. I will again scan for swing moves and I will use those ideas for day trades. CASH IS POSITION TOO!!!!. Please remember that. If anyone has any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Market commentary for 04/03/2008
Good day!
As we expected, Wednesday brought a correction day. Very rarely will we see two trend days in row and when we do, volume will be much higher than average. I mentioned yesterday that volume was my biggest concern and Wednesday's correction proved that. After the open uncertainty and the pullback to the 5 min 20sma support area, the indices bounced to new highs and reached their previous resistance areas. The DIA and the SPY reached their equal move areas and their previous highs. We can see that on the 60 min chart. The QQQQ stalled at its' $46 whole number price resistance area. On the smaller time frames we can see that the selling pressure was stronger (second selling wave on the 5 min charts) and that brought concerns for long trades. The day closed with two selling waves on the 15 min charts which gives us room for possible selling pressure in the morning.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008qqqq60.jpg
Again, for a healthy daily trend reversal possibility, I would like to see more buying volume, what will be proof that interest on the long side is back. On the daily charts we can see that the indices show a 3rd buying wave (blue lines). It is very choppy action but still we can see three buying waves. Usually after three waves we will see a longer correction and that is another reason for concern on a long continuation. On a possible daily correction (that is what I will expect) it will be important to see the correction pace and the reaction to the daily 10 and 20sma support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008qqqq.jpg
I will expect to see a choppy correction on the daily chart. I know that it can be frustrating to see that we didnât take advantage of the three buying waves, but when we see the whole chart and how choppy it is, then for me it is reasonable to stay with intraday moves and faster trades. There were plenty of false moves and breakouts. In other words I will say that we presently have a battle between the bulls and bears for control of the market. On the larger time frames (weekly/monthly) Iâm not that optimistic and I think we will see more selling pressure and possibly even a move back to lows, but we will talk about that when the market gives us signals for that. For now we can say that the bulls are not yet strong enough for a recovery, only for a break (rest) from the trend down. Because of that my focus will continue to be with intraday action and scanning for the strongest and weakest charts and of course for own way charts.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
As we expected, Wednesday brought a correction day. Very rarely will we see two trend days in row and when we do, volume will be much higher than average. I mentioned yesterday that volume was my biggest concern and Wednesday's correction proved that. After the open uncertainty and the pullback to the 5 min 20sma support area, the indices bounced to new highs and reached their previous resistance areas. The DIA and the SPY reached their equal move areas and their previous highs. We can see that on the 60 min chart. The QQQQ stalled at its' $46 whole number price resistance area. On the smaller time frames we can see that the selling pressure was stronger (second selling wave on the 5 min charts) and that brought concerns for long trades. The day closed with two selling waves on the 15 min charts which gives us room for possible selling pressure in the morning.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008qqqq60.jpg
Again, for a healthy daily trend reversal possibility, I would like to see more buying volume, what will be proof that interest on the long side is back. On the daily charts we can see that the indices show a 3rd buying wave (blue lines). It is very choppy action but still we can see three buying waves. Usually after three waves we will see a longer correction and that is another reason for concern on a long continuation. On a possible daily correction (that is what I will expect) it will be important to see the correction pace and the reaction to the daily 10 and 20sma support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04032008qqqq.jpg
I will expect to see a choppy correction on the daily chart. I know that it can be frustrating to see that we didnât take advantage of the three buying waves, but when we see the whole chart and how choppy it is, then for me it is reasonable to stay with intraday moves and faster trades. There were plenty of false moves and breakouts. In other words I will say that we presently have a battle between the bulls and bears for control of the market. On the larger time frames (weekly/monthly) Iâm not that optimistic and I think we will see more selling pressure and possibly even a move back to lows, but we will talk about that when the market gives us signals for that. For now we can say that the bulls are not yet strong enough for a recovery, only for a break (rest) from the trend down. Because of that my focus will continue to be with intraday action and scanning for the strongest and weakest charts and of course for own way charts.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Market commentary for 04/04/2008
Good day!
We can say that today was a painful day for traders. Only scalp traders, over traders and patient traders had a busy day. We definitely donât have good market conditions right now for swing traders. Thursday brought another small daily range bar with choppy intraday action. There was intraday strength but it was expected that Wednesday's high would hold. For the rest of the day we saw choppy action without a trend. Look at the 60 min charts. It was the second day in a row with range action and light volume. We can see that the 10and 20sma are trying to crossover and if the indices break under the 20sma that will be a signal for more of a correction from highs. That is an important support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008qqqq60.jpg
After Tuesday's strong move up on lighter volume, the last two days correction is going on declining volume, so we can imagine how choppy that can be. I donât have a strong bias but for now I think that Wednesday's high will hold for the next few days and that we could see more of a daily correction from highs. We will see, but I know that any breakout try must be confirmed with volume. Generally the indices are stuck and the bounce from the daily low is on light volume and a weaker pace.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008qqqq.jpg
For now, the market action suggests that we will see more weekly weakness and new selling waves, but it is still too early to say for sure. Iâm not optimistic with a true market recovery until I see huge buying interest. My focus will continue to be with the intraday action and patience. Also we must keep in mind that tomorrow is Friday and usually we will see some action in the morning and then volume will decline and choppy action will take control. I will look over the gainers list for individual names, possibly traps or own way charts.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
We can say that today was a painful day for traders. Only scalp traders, over traders and patient traders had a busy day. We definitely donât have good market conditions right now for swing traders. Thursday brought another small daily range bar with choppy intraday action. There was intraday strength but it was expected that Wednesday's high would hold. For the rest of the day we saw choppy action without a trend. Look at the 60 min charts. It was the second day in a row with range action and light volume. We can see that the 10and 20sma are trying to crossover and if the indices break under the 20sma that will be a signal for more of a correction from highs. That is an important support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008qqqq60.jpg
After Tuesday's strong move up on lighter volume, the last two days correction is going on declining volume, so we can imagine how choppy that can be. I donât have a strong bias but for now I think that Wednesday's high will hold for the next few days and that we could see more of a daily correction from highs. We will see, but I know that any breakout try must be confirmed with volume. Generally the indices are stuck and the bounce from the daily low is on light volume and a weaker pace.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04042008qqqq.jpg
For now, the market action suggests that we will see more weekly weakness and new selling waves, but it is still too early to say for sure. Iâm not optimistic with a true market recovery until I see huge buying interest. My focus will continue to be with the intraday action and patience. Also we must keep in mind that tomorrow is Friday and usually we will see some action in the morning and then volume will decline and choppy action will take control. I will look over the gainers list for individual names, possibly traps or own way charts.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Market commentary for 04/07/2008
Good day!
Take a look at the table above and you can see that there are almost no changes and that speaks volumes about Friday's action. Over the last few days my commentaries continued to stress that we have had difficult trading days and Friday was no exception. Yes the indices made new highs but there was not enough volume for a true breakout. On the 60 min charts we can see that the indices broke on their 3rd try and usually that will be the charm, but we also know that if the 3rd try doesn't work we could see a strong reversal. On the charts we can see that the breakup didnât work. Pace was ok, but volume was lacking which means that buyers were not interested in the upward direction. Also we can see that the pullback was strong, and will we see if Monday will bring more selling continuation.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqq60.jpg
From the daily charts we can see why the indices didnât show significant changes. All the indices formed doji bars and that means indecision. Usually it means that whichever side is broken first will be the direction that we can expect. Overhead the SPY and the QQQQ have some room before their 100sma and their previous highs while the DIA already reached its' resistance area. I would like to note again that volume decreased on the move from lows. But letâs take a look at the weekly charts which might shed some more light.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqq.jpg
On first view we can see that all the indices are at their resistance areas of previous highs plus 20sma resistance areas. If we remember usually the first try to break a resistance area will fail and if we add the daily doji and the 60 min 3rd try failure breakup, all of that suggests that the long side will be higher risk. But that does not means that we can blindly go with short setups or even that the indices will bounce strongly from their resistance areas. It just means that that we must be cautious with new long trades because of the resistance areas.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqqweekly.jpg
I can say that that my bias is short because of volume, but I canât say that I see a clear technical signal for that. I think that the market is not ready for a true recovery and I think that the bear trend isnât finished yet. Right now it is important to remember that we are entering the earning season and as usual that will increase risk for o/n trades, in an already high risk market. I know that I sound like a broken record, but my focus will stay the same: intraday moves and focus on the strongest and weakest names. I will avoid o/n trades unless we will find âown wayâ charts.
If anyone has any questions or comments please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica
Good day!
Take a look at the table above and you can see that there are almost no changes and that speaks volumes about Friday's action. Over the last few days my commentaries continued to stress that we have had difficult trading days and Friday was no exception. Yes the indices made new highs but there was not enough volume for a true breakout. On the 60 min charts we can see that the indices broke on their 3rd try and usually that will be the charm, but we also know that if the 3rd try doesn't work we could see a strong reversal. On the charts we can see that the breakup didnât work. Pace was ok, but volume was lacking which means that buyers were not interested in the upward direction. Also we can see that the pullback was strong, and will we see if Monday will bring more selling continuation.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqq60.jpg
From the daily charts we can see why the indices didnât show significant changes. All the indices formed doji bars and that means indecision. Usually it means that whichever side is broken first will be the direction that we can expect. Overhead the SPY and the QQQQ have some room before their 100sma and their previous highs while the DIA already reached its' resistance area. I would like to note again that volume decreased on the move from lows. But letâs take a look at the weekly charts which might shed some more light.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqq.jpg
On first view we can see that all the indices are at their resistance areas of previous highs plus 20sma resistance areas. If we remember usually the first try to break a resistance area will fail and if we add the daily doji and the 60 min 3rd try failure breakup, all of that suggests that the long side will be higher risk. But that does not means that we can blindly go with short setups or even that the indices will bounce strongly from their resistance areas. It just means that that we must be cautious with new long trades because of the resistance areas.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/04072008qqqqweekly.jpg
I can say that that my bias is short because of volume, but I canât say that I see a clear technical signal for that. I think that the market is not ready for a true recovery and I think that the bear trend isnât finished yet. Right now it is important to remember that we are entering the earning season and as usual that will increase risk for o/n trades, in an already high risk market. I know that I sound like a broken record, but my focus will stay the same: intraday moves and focus on the strongest and weakest names. I will avoid o/n trades unless we will find âown wayâ charts.
If anyone has any questions or comments please feel free to contact me.
Wish you all good trading!!!
Kind regards.
Ivica