Market commentary

Quote from Forex54:

I guess you are doing this for fun.
Your market commentary has been posted all over the internet.
You must have a lot a free time.

Good luck on your hunt.

:D
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You've been here only several days, and 2/3 of your posts are bitching about Ivica. Who's hunting/stalking????? What is your agenda? Ivica has been clear about his, he has something to sell. What is your agenda?
 
Quote from Brandonf:

You've been here only several days, and 2/3 of your posts are bitching about Ivica. Who's hunting/stalking????? What is your agenda? Ivica has been clear about his, he has something to sell. What is your agenda?
More...

The only reason I was asking is because I see his commentary on many financial websites.
 
Quote from Forex54:

The only reason I was asking is because I see his commentary on many financial websites.
More...


Well I hope you like what you see there. I try to promote myself and I think that my work is best way to do thta. I never talk about I do that much% per month or yoear. But everyone can find my results and see my work. Honestly, I hope you all like it, but if dont that is ok, because there are a lot other places.
Welcome on this place and I hope you will have good time. If you will have any question feel free to ask.

Good luck.:)
 
Market commentary for 02/15/2008

Good day!
Was Bernanke's comment about the economy the reason why the markets closed in negative territory? We can’t say for sure, but from a technical view it is not a surprise. The Indices stayed in a daily range and in this type of action up-down days are common. The DIA and the SPY closed above their 10/20sma support areas and volume was average so we can’t say (for now) that Thursday's action is the start of a new swing direction. It is a little different for the QQQQ. Selling volume was higher and that could be the start of the scenario that I explained before (3rd try triangle). Let’s take a look at the 60 min charts. The selling pressure was a little stronger than the buying pressure over the last few days and that suggests the possibility of a downside move, but that can easily turn into 60 min range action. Volume was average and that is another reason for range odds.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02152008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02152008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02152008qqqq60.jpg

On the daily charts we can see that the previous resistance held very strongly and the SPY/DIA closed at Wednesday's low, while the QQQQ was the weakest and closed under its' 10/20sma and under Wednesday's low. Thursday action didn't suggest any kind of strong bias for Friday but if I would have to bet, I would have a slightly bearish bias. But since we know that Friday is option expiration day, we can expect more intraday indecision what can result in whippy action without strong direction.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02182008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02182008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02152008qqqq.jpg

Usually I’m not too active on option expiration days because risk is high. One way to trade a whippy intraday market is using larger stops which will avoid the possibility of being stopped out and then seeing the trade continue after taking out your stop. We need to be faster with profits which will result with less risk/reward trades. Another way is to not trade and stay with cash which is also a position. As traders we must recognize trading risk and market action and determine whether it is worth trading. Also in whippy action we must be careful to not fall into overtrading which will result in poor results and keep only ours brokers happy. I expect that we might have some worthwhile market action in the morning, however, as the day continues, I expect that risk will increase. Focus remains on intraday moves like traps and gap trades.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Ivica
 
Market commentary for 02/19/2008

Good day!
It was a typical option expiration day, with lots of nothing. The first part of the day the indices went down without a strong intraday pace and without strong volume. This choppy indecisive action increased the trading risk. As I explained, the only way to trade this kind of action is to use larger stops or not trade at all. On the 60 min charts we can see how small the trading range was on Friday. The last hour finally showed a reversal, which was the chance for scalp traders, but with very light volume it was not an opportunity for new swing positions.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008qqqq60.jpg

The daily charts clearly show the market situation. We can see that the action is getting more and more tight which increases trading risk. We can see that the indices have room for this range continuation and because of that right now it is impossible to have a bias. After a break in any direction, the indices must deal with their previous support or resistance areas which forms the daily ranges (red lines). I don’t expect that we will have an easy trading situation over the next few days. That is all that we can do now as traders... recognize risk. We can’t fight the market, we can only follow it. So we have range action on the 60 min charts and on the daily charts. Maybe the weekly charts will give us some help for direction

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008qqqq.jpg

The QQQQ formed a doji bar and closed in the middle of the range. The same applies to the DIA and the SPY. Volumes decreased which is expected after a strong weekly move down. If we look only at the weekly charts than we can see that the indices need more time for rest after the strong move down. The daily charts also bring us to that same conclusion and thus we can expect more weeks without direction.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02192008qqqqweekly.jpg

It is good to look at the weekly charts for future expectations. The situation didn’t change after last week. The indices action is tighter and trading risk is higher. I will expect the same trading risk for the upcoming week or until the indices break their daily ranges. My focus will remain on intraday moves and “own way” charts for possible swing trades.

I wish you all a nice long weekend. Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions..

Wish you all good trading!!!

Ivica
 
Market commentary for 02/20/2008

Good day!
There is not much to say about the first trading day this week. The Indices opened with a strong gap up and we can see on the SPY daily chart that it opened above the daily triangle. But after the open the indices didn’t have the strength for continuation and attempted to fill the gaps. In the morning the indices stopped half way and during the midday action, a 15 min consolidation brought some indecision about the afternoon action. The 60 min avalanche made the decision and the indices continued their morning direction. This time, however, the selling pressure was much stronger and with an exhaustion move, the indices reached Tuesday's low. During the last reversal period the SPY and the DIA regained some of their afternoon losses, while the QQQQ closed near lows which suggests for the possibility for continuation on Wednesday.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02202008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02202008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02202008qqqq60.jpg

The DIA and the SPY bounced from their 10sma support areas and closed above their 10 and 20sma support area. The same applies to the QQQQ, however, it just wasn’t strong enough to close above its' 20sma. We can see that all the indices are still in triangles and soon, maybe a day or two, the triangles will be broken. Whatever direction will be taken, the next strong resistance/support area for the indices will be the range area (red lines). Right now it is a very tricky situation and we can see false breakouts in both directions. Volume is low and we don’t have any strong signs right now for direction.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02202008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02202008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02202008qqqq.jpg

My bias right now is on the down side, but that can be changed in a flash. First I want to see the direction on the 60 min range which will give us a possible direction for the daily charts. Before that risk will be high for anything longer than a day trade setup. On Tuesday was had nice setups and intraday moves and it is very important to protect open trades as soon is possible because with intraday range action, strong reversals are very common. Also risk for overnight trades remains higher because a morning gap up can change the direction. I believe that the next days we give us a more clear situation for a possible swing move.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Ivica
 
Market commentary for 02/25/2008

Good day!
Friday's action showed us all the risk of range action. The late Friday afternoon news of a potential bailout plan for the troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial brought the market from lows to a strong closing high. That was a surprise for all short traders, as before that all the charts suggested that we could see a short continuation. During Friday's session, the indices broke under their 60 min ranges, without strong volume which is important, and stayed with consolidations at lows until the news came out. We can say now that the morning break down was a false break and the indices are again in the middle of the range. Because of that the whole market commentary from Friday can just be repeated for Monday.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008qqqq60.jpg

We saw no change on the daily charts. The QQQQ's try for a 3rd try daily triangle failed. Volume was average and we can’t read now what next week will bring. We could easily see another consolidation week, which will increase risk every day on a higher and higher level. Lets take a look at the weekly charts.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008qqqq.jpg

After looking at the daily charts, this is not a surprise. Possibly the most frustrating thing about the weekly charts is that after a strong move down, this kind of action can easily continue for the next few weeks and possibly even for months. On the DIA and the SPY chart we can see that the 10sma is coming closer and that should be the first moving average resistance area.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02252008qqqqweekly.jpg

Generally, there isn't much to say about last week. We must keep in mind that it is best to wait for a range breakout, because before that risk will remain high. Right now it is better to leave the initial breakout and wait for a consolidation then trying to pick a possible breakout which could finish with a false move. That is what I will do. That mean we can expect that patience will be the name of the game because after a possible initial move I will again wait. Right now the traders that are selling tops and buying bottoms are the ones in the money with this range action.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Ivica
 
Market commentary for 03/03/2008

Good day!
Friday finally gave us healthy action. After a very choppy range week we had a day with stronger volume and good pace which resulted in a trend day. It is always easier to trade when we have synergy between pace and volume. The day started with a strong gap down and at the start the question was... can the DIA break under its' 20sma on the daily chart and continue. You all can note that lately in range action, every gap was filled and the indices didn’t have the strength or weakness for gap continuation. Friday was different and the indices didn’t have the strength to close the strong gap down. On the 60 min charts, after the weakness at the open, we can see that the DIA stalled at their 200sma support area. During the midday, the indices didn’t have the strength for a strong intraday bounce, which was the case for the last several days. We finally had a good continuation opportunity, which we took and we all know how that finished.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008qqqq60.jpg

Friday was the last day in February and that is always a good opportunity to look at the larger time frames. I will start with the daily charts. On the 60 min charts we saw that the indices reached their support areas, and we can see the same on the daily charts. We had a nice trend day, but for daily continuation, the indices need to break out of their daily ranges. We can see three selling waves on the 60 minute charts, which traded to the support areas and we can expect to see a correction before a possible daily break down. Friday's volume was higher which is in line with possible continuation.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008qqqq.jpg

On the daily charts, the indices are still in the range and for a swing move down, the support area must be broken first with volume confirmation. On the weekly charts we can see that the indices have room for a move down, not much, but enough for another leg down. Right now I can only guess, but I think that the indices could retest their previous lows which will result with double bottoms for the SPY and the DIA. That is one scenario. Another scenario is that the indices will stay in weekly consolidations for several weeks which will leave room for another, third, weekly selling wave and which could result with a lower low. But for that possibility let’s take a look at the monthly charts.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03032008qqqqweekly.jpg

On the monthly charts I see that the DIA and the SPY have more room for downside. It is important, however, to see that the monthly charts are extended and right now it is impossible to predict the next move. Right now from the market action I will expect a more bearish move, but I won’t blindly take swing trades and wait because a strong reversal can start at anytime. The Indices 50sma is a strong support area and so before a bounce we could see another leg down.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02292008diamonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02292008spymonthly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/02292008qqqqmonthly.jpg

In summary, on the 60 min charts we have already seen three selling waves. On the daily charts, the indices are at their range support areas, and on the weekly charts the DIA and the SPY are trying to break down from their 10sma resistance area (which is the trend test and possible continuation). The monthly charts are all extended. I believe that we can see two scenarios. One is that the indices will see their previous monthly low support areas and the weekly 10sma was the trigger for that. The second possibility is that the indices will make a higher low on the weekly charts which will result with more of a weekly/monthly correction and a consolidation on the weekly/monthly charts. One thing is for sure, before or after, we can expect a longer monthly correction. The question is will it be after retesting the lows or will it continue from this level. After Friday's trend day, we can expect a 60 min consolidation before any continuation. Usually after a trend day we can expect a consolidation day and I will go with that idea. Because of that we protected swing trades. Should the market continue with selling pressure our open shorts will still benefit. I’m not a big fan of a weak market because I think that it is easier to make money in a bull market, but we can only follow the market and hope that in the future we will see a new trend which will be of help to us. New education course will start at Wednesday 03/05/2008. Don’t miss it. If anyone will have any question please feel free to contact me

Wish you all good trading!!!

Ivica
 
Market commentary for 03/04/2008

Good day!
After a trend day we will usually see a consolidation day. Monday was no exception. The QQQQ was the weakest and made new lows, but that was the room that was left after Friday's trend day. We expected weakness at the open and that was the case with the SPY and the DIA which reached their previous low support areas. We can see that on the 60 min charts. The same applied to the weakest QQQQ. Just the QQQQ reached its' one leg down support area which we can see on the daily chart. Also we can see on the charts that the DIA and the SPY spent the day in their 60 min ranges which was expected, because after any big move, we need to see rest. For now that is a consolidation at lows and it is good for selling continuation. All the indices are still under their 10sma (first trend test resistance area), and if a correction will continue into Tuesday, I will follow the 20sma as another very important resistance area. Also, for the down trend continuation, it will be important that the indices bounce down from the 20sma. If that doesn’t' happen, than that will be a sign for more of a daily correction from the support areas.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03042008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03042008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03042008qqqq60.jpg

On the daily charts we can see that the daily range areas are still holding. If you all remember last week's 60 min range action, we now have the same with the daily charts. If the indices won't break down, then we could see a reversal into the range highs, which is the usual range action. Because of that it is very important to follow the consolidation (correction) which started on Monday. If we have a strong bounce, than we could expect a move up onto the daily range upper line. If we have a gradual move, than we can expect a break down and very possibly a retesting of the previous monthly low support areas. For any possibility it is important to watch volume and pace. Monday's volume was light and the intraday consolidation is moving in line with a possible break down.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03042008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03042008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03042008qqqq.jpg

But for low risk setups and enough rest for retesting the previous lows, the best case scenario would be if the indices will continue with a gradual correction and if they will wait for the 10sma on the daily chart (trend test= which will lead into a daily down trend after range break) That will reflect as a bounce down from the 10sma, on every touch, into new lows. Every fast break down from Monday's low will increase risk and it will cut the possibility for a move down into the previous lows. Generally, for lower risk setups the indices need more rest (few days). I hope that is clear to all, but if isn’t, please feel free to contact me.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Ivica
 
Market commentary for 03/05/2008

Good day!
The daily range is holding with Tuesday bringing an intraday reversal. The day started with a gap down to Monday's low support area for the DIA and the SPY. I was expecting that the gap would be filled after the open, but the indices showed weakness and the bounce after the open was very choppy on decreased volume which was not a sign for a true reversal. In the meantime, the QQQQ stayed in a range until 10:30 am EST. At that moment the SPY and the DIA touched their 20sma 5 min resistance areas which were a signal for the 5 min trend down. The Indices broke under Monday’s lows but the selling pace and volume was not strong for healthy. We can see that on the 60 min charts. It was more choppy action with nervous pullbacks from the 10sma 60 min resistance areas. After slightly lower lows, we saw bounces back to the resistance areas. Also volume didn’t confirm healthy action and at that point we just followed our open short trades, because for new setups it was just too high risk. If you remember I always repeat that volume and pace are great tools for future expectations. We were right and around the 14:00 pm EST reversal period, the indices bounced from lows. If you look at the smaller time frames (5 min), you can see that the bounce from lows was on higher volume and with a stronger buying pace. That was the start of the reversal, and the buying trigger.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03052008dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03052008spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03052008qqqq60.jpg

Since the buying pace was much stronger than the selling pace, it was expected that the 60 min 10sma would not hold. The SPY and the DIA almost filled their gaps before the close. On the daily charts we can see that the range support area held and Tuesday's action formed a daily pivot bar for the SPY and the DIA with heavier volume. This intraday action can lead us to be bullish for Wednesday. Additionally, Tuesday brought the 4th selling wave and we can say that the 60 min indices are extended.

http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03052008dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03052008spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2008/03052008qqqq.jpg

What next? After a strong reversal and heavier buying volume I will expect to see that the correction that started on Tuesday will continue for the next day or two. I will expect that the indices will trade back to their daily 10/20sma resistance area. It is very important to follow the correction pace, because that will give us answers. Can we expect to see daily selling continuation and a pullback from the 10/20sma resistance area, or can we can expect that the daily range action will continue. Right now it is impossible to say, but after day or two it will be more clear. For daily selling continuation it is best to see the correction pace much weaker than the selling pace. Any other action will increase trading risk. I will explain tomorrow in more detail during the education course. If anyone has any questions, please feel free to contact me.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Ivica
 
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