Market commentary
- Thread starter ivica
- Start date
Market commentary for 10/01/2007
Good day!
There is not much to say about Fridayâs action. It was the last day of the quarter and I didnât expect any different action then the last few days. On the 60 min charts we can see that all the Indices stayed in their consolidation areas. The DIA closed the strongest near highs and the triangle pattern looks very nice for a possible breakup. The QQQQ was the weakest and closed under its' 20sma. We had a difficult market last week and that is always the case when the direction is not supported by volume and pace.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007qqqq60.jpg
The end of the month/week is always a good time to look at the larger time frame charts. If we look at the monthly charts, we can see that the market held strong and looks like the July trend break didnât hurt the direction. Despite that the QQQQ closed at new yearly highs. The DIA and the SPY closed near highs. Looking only at charts, I would say that Friday's close and last week's action ended very nicely for the potential of new highs and a continuation of the long direction. The DIA weekly continuation pattern is one of my favorites. The nice small bar after the extended bar can bring great risk/reward opportunities. The SPY has a similar kind of continuation pattern, but not quite as nice. The possible double top and previous highs are still strong resistances for the DIA and the SPY. For any future swing direction, volume will be the key and my primary focus.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007qqqqweekly.jpg
On the daily charts we can see this much better. After the FEDâs rate cut, the Indices continued to new high without much rest and with volume declines. This is not the best situation for a swing long direction breakup. On the daily charts, the Indices look (the DIA and the SPY) extended and ready for corrections. But the weekly charts suggest that we could see another move up. We could break up to new highs with a strong buying pace and strong volume. However, volume will be the key next week. If the pace will be strong but without strong volume, then risk will increase and we will have to focus on smaller time frames (same as last weeks).
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007qqqq.jpg
Of course, there is an absolute real possibility that the previous highs will hold and the Indices will start a longer consolidation (cup and handle pattern). In that case we could see a handle consolidation which means several weeks without a trend (range action). That scenario could bring some great trading, but until we have that situation, we will have range action and that is always a difficult time for traders. Of course, there is a third possible scenario and that is a strong reversal from the resistance areas. In the second case (handle formation) I will expect to see low volume, but with any of the other 2 scenarios, I want to see the volume pick up. That will be a healthy reaction. If we don't see that, swing traders will have to stay in patience mode, because risk will remain high. If anyone has any questions, please email me and I will be happy to help if I can.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
There is not much to say about Fridayâs action. It was the last day of the quarter and I didnât expect any different action then the last few days. On the 60 min charts we can see that all the Indices stayed in their consolidation areas. The DIA closed the strongest near highs and the triangle pattern looks very nice for a possible breakup. The QQQQ was the weakest and closed under its' 20sma. We had a difficult market last week and that is always the case when the direction is not supported by volume and pace.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007qqqq60.jpg
The end of the month/week is always a good time to look at the larger time frame charts. If we look at the monthly charts, we can see that the market held strong and looks like the July trend break didnât hurt the direction. Despite that the QQQQ closed at new yearly highs. The DIA and the SPY closed near highs. Looking only at charts, I would say that Friday's close and last week's action ended very nicely for the potential of new highs and a continuation of the long direction. The DIA weekly continuation pattern is one of my favorites. The nice small bar after the extended bar can bring great risk/reward opportunities. The SPY has a similar kind of continuation pattern, but not quite as nice. The possible double top and previous highs are still strong resistances for the DIA and the SPY. For any future swing direction, volume will be the key and my primary focus.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007qqqqweekly.jpg
On the daily charts we can see this much better. After the FEDâs rate cut, the Indices continued to new high without much rest and with volume declines. This is not the best situation for a swing long direction breakup. On the daily charts, the Indices look (the DIA and the SPY) extended and ready for corrections. But the weekly charts suggest that we could see another move up. We could break up to new highs with a strong buying pace and strong volume. However, volume will be the key next week. If the pace will be strong but without strong volume, then risk will increase and we will have to focus on smaller time frames (same as last weeks).
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007qqqq.jpg
Of course, there is an absolute real possibility that the previous highs will hold and the Indices will start a longer consolidation (cup and handle pattern). In that case we could see a handle consolidation which means several weeks without a trend (range action). That scenario could bring some great trading, but until we have that situation, we will have range action and that is always a difficult time for traders. Of course, there is a third possible scenario and that is a strong reversal from the resistance areas. In the second case (handle formation) I will expect to see low volume, but with any of the other 2 scenarios, I want to see the volume pick up. That will be a healthy reaction. If we don't see that, swing traders will have to stay in patience mode, because risk will remain high. If anyone has any questions, please email me and I will be happy to help if I can.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 10/02/2007
Good day!
NEW QUARTER, NEW RECORD HIGHS!!! The Dow hit a new record high (14115.51), the COMPX closed at new highs (2740.99) and the S&P 500 came close to its' previous highs. The day started flat near Fridayâs close. Right after the open, the Indices started their strong move up. The DIA was the strongest and lead the market to new highs. The breakout pace was very strong with higher volume. Since we had synergy in the market everything moved in the same direction. The initial breakout was the strongest, with the highest volume and strongest pace. We had a higher percentage for a strong trend day up which resulted in new highs. If we look more closely, we can see that the big caps were the leaders and market movers, while the small caps failed and didnât follow along with the market strength.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007qqqq.jpg
Usually when the market has a trend day, we can expect a strong close with extended moves and increased volume. But since the volume decreased after the morning move up, that was questionable. On the DIA 60 min chart, we can see that the equal move resistance area was reached before the last hour. Volume decreased after the morning run and $141 was number resistance there as well. The SPY had the same situation as well as previous high resistance. The QQQQ didnât reach its' equal move resistance (still have half point), but $52 served as number resistance during Mondayâs action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007qqqq60.jpg
If you remember my Monday commentary, you can see that the DIA had its' weekly continuation pattern setup. That was one of the scenarios we expected, however Iâm not satisfied with the daily volume. The breakout pace was very strong and I will expect to see continuation with a volume increase. That means that my bias in on the long side, but we must remember that after a strong trend day, usually we will see a consolidation day. So, we can expect back and forth action. In case we see strong continuation, which is always possible, I will use that action only for intraday setups. Unfortunately swing traders still donât have a clear situation. It is always easier when the day is over, and yesterday's intraday decrease in volume made additional swing trade setups risky , so I stayed in RDEN http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007rden.jpg only overnight. Lack of volume is still a problem for me, but we can only follow the market action. My primary focus is still on smaller time frame moves. âOwn wayâ charts will be the ones to watch. Makes sure not to fall into the overtrade trap if Tuesday brings a consolidation day.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
NEW QUARTER, NEW RECORD HIGHS!!! The Dow hit a new record high (14115.51), the COMPX closed at new highs (2740.99) and the S&P 500 came close to its' previous highs. The day started flat near Fridayâs close. Right after the open, the Indices started their strong move up. The DIA was the strongest and lead the market to new highs. The breakout pace was very strong with higher volume. Since we had synergy in the market everything moved in the same direction. The initial breakout was the strongest, with the highest volume and strongest pace. We had a higher percentage for a strong trend day up which resulted in new highs. If we look more closely, we can see that the big caps were the leaders and market movers, while the small caps failed and didnât follow along with the market strength.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007qqqq.jpg
Usually when the market has a trend day, we can expect a strong close with extended moves and increased volume. But since the volume decreased after the morning move up, that was questionable. On the DIA 60 min chart, we can see that the equal move resistance area was reached before the last hour. Volume decreased after the morning run and $141 was number resistance there as well. The SPY had the same situation as well as previous high resistance. The QQQQ didnât reach its' equal move resistance (still have half point), but $52 served as number resistance during Mondayâs action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007qqqq60.jpg
If you remember my Monday commentary, you can see that the DIA had its' weekly continuation pattern setup. That was one of the scenarios we expected, however Iâm not satisfied with the daily volume. The breakout pace was very strong and I will expect to see continuation with a volume increase. That means that my bias in on the long side, but we must remember that after a strong trend day, usually we will see a consolidation day. So, we can expect back and forth action. In case we see strong continuation, which is always possible, I will use that action only for intraday setups. Unfortunately swing traders still donât have a clear situation. It is always easier when the day is over, and yesterday's intraday decrease in volume made additional swing trade setups risky , so I stayed in RDEN http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10012007rden.jpg only overnight. Lack of volume is still a problem for me, but we can only follow the market action. My primary focus is still on smaller time frame moves. âOwn wayâ charts will be the ones to watch. Makes sure not to fall into the overtrade trap if Tuesday brings a consolidation day.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 10/03/2007
Good day!
The consolidation day is behind us. As expected, after the strong rally on Monday, Tuesday brought a correction and rest. This is the usual action we would expect after a run like we had on Monday. Nothing goes up or down without rest. The day started flat without much change and for most of the day the Indices showed a gradual pullback from Monday's high. The DIA was the weakest while the QQQQ was the strongest. We can see that on the 60 min charts. On the DIA chart, we can see that the correction was gradual and the selling pace is much weaker then the buying pace into the new highs. Volume decreased all day and this is the kind of action that we like to see for a possible bounce from the 20sma back to highs, and possibly even new highs. I have drawn a line for the scenario we could possibly see in case the DIA bounces from the 20sma. For that possibility, we should see volume increase and a stronger pace then we saw in the correction. In case we see a slower pace, then Monday's high will serve as strong resistance and the likelihood for a triangle pattern increases. On the other side, if the 20sma doesn't hold, then I will look for a stronger correction from highs to the daily 10sma as the first support area. The same situation applies to the SPY and the QQQQ. If we look at the 60 min charts, we can see that the QQQQ was the strongest and the last hour's bounce brought it back nearly to its' highs.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007qqqq60.jpg
Today's action resulted in a daily continuation pattern, which is one of my favorite patterns. I have spoken in class about the continuation pattern. The setup is above the previous day's high and the stop is under the previous day's low. That is one way. I always like to look at the smaller time frames to see the better risk/reward possibilities. I would like to see the QQQQ consolidate during the morning before it sets up. That way the 20sma 60 min will pick up and it will bring us nice support for the breakout possibility. If it sets up right at the open that will be high risk for me and I will leave it alone. In that case I will follow the action for another setup. The same situation applies to the DIA chart. The QQQQ must stay above its' 20sma 60 min for a long possibility. Otherwise, I will start to watch short setups.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007qqqq.jpg
We must be very careful at the open. I always like to wait at least 5-10 min before any setup. The SPY still has room to meet its' previous high and a double top pattern is still possible. That is the situation we must watch. My bias is on the bullish side, but I must say, that the intraday action is very important. The market can easily turn and we can see a longer correction. We must pay particular attention to the previous pace and volume. Focus will continue to be on "own way" charts like TUP http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007tup.jpg yesterday. Those kinds of swing trades are always useful, because the market doesnât have as much of an influence on those kinds of charts. I will also pay special attention to the strongest and weakest names (%gainers and % losers lists). If anyone has any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
The consolidation day is behind us. As expected, after the strong rally on Monday, Tuesday brought a correction and rest. This is the usual action we would expect after a run like we had on Monday. Nothing goes up or down without rest. The day started flat without much change and for most of the day the Indices showed a gradual pullback from Monday's high. The DIA was the weakest while the QQQQ was the strongest. We can see that on the 60 min charts. On the DIA chart, we can see that the correction was gradual and the selling pace is much weaker then the buying pace into the new highs. Volume decreased all day and this is the kind of action that we like to see for a possible bounce from the 20sma back to highs, and possibly even new highs. I have drawn a line for the scenario we could possibly see in case the DIA bounces from the 20sma. For that possibility, we should see volume increase and a stronger pace then we saw in the correction. In case we see a slower pace, then Monday's high will serve as strong resistance and the likelihood for a triangle pattern increases. On the other side, if the 20sma doesn't hold, then I will look for a stronger correction from highs to the daily 10sma as the first support area. The same situation applies to the SPY and the QQQQ. If we look at the 60 min charts, we can see that the QQQQ was the strongest and the last hour's bounce brought it back nearly to its' highs.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007qqqq60.jpg
Today's action resulted in a daily continuation pattern, which is one of my favorite patterns. I have spoken in class about the continuation pattern. The setup is above the previous day's high and the stop is under the previous day's low. That is one way. I always like to look at the smaller time frames to see the better risk/reward possibilities. I would like to see the QQQQ consolidate during the morning before it sets up. That way the 20sma 60 min will pick up and it will bring us nice support for the breakout possibility. If it sets up right at the open that will be high risk for me and I will leave it alone. In that case I will follow the action for another setup. The same situation applies to the DIA chart. The QQQQ must stay above its' 20sma 60 min for a long possibility. Otherwise, I will start to watch short setups.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007qqqq.jpg
We must be very careful at the open. I always like to wait at least 5-10 min before any setup. The SPY still has room to meet its' previous high and a double top pattern is still possible. That is the situation we must watch. My bias is on the bullish side, but I must say, that the intraday action is very important. The market can easily turn and we can see a longer correction. We must pay particular attention to the previous pace and volume. Focus will continue to be on "own way" charts like TUP http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10022007tup.jpg yesterday. Those kinds of swing trades are always useful, because the market doesnât have as much of an influence on those kinds of charts. I will also pay special attention to the strongest and weakest names (%gainers and % losers lists). If anyone has any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 10/04/2007
Good day!
The correction from highs continued. Wednesday's session started flat and without much change at the open. There is not much to say because the correction from Tuesday continued into Wednesday. We can easily see that on the 60 min charts. The DIA stayed in a channel and the correction pace stayed the same. We saw lower lows, and the Indices broke under their 20sma 60 min support area. I explained in yesterday's commentary that the 20sma 60 min is an important support area and if the indices donât hold it then we can expect more of a correction. That is exactly what we saw. The previous high for the QQQQ is the support area now and we can see the reaction on the chart to that area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007qqqq60.jpg
The \correction is still gradual and the reversal volume was not strong. That suggests the possibility for a bounce on Thursday. But, before that, I will expect to see more of a correction, possibly until the 10sma support areas on the daily charts. Should downside volume and pace increase, this possibility could change. For now the action suggests a possible bounce and this time we can expect to see the previous high hold on the first try. That means, if the indices bounce, I will use that situation for a maximum move to the previous high, and that will be the target area. Again, all depends on pace and volume.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007qqqq.jpg
I took a few short trades like EME http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007eme.jpg and MINI http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007mini.jpg in case we see a stronger reversal, but is it important to note that every overnight trade is higher risk now and I will continue to use small risk. That is very important now. The market is still strong and the 10sma is the first trend test. If we look to the past, the daily move up is above the 10sma (brown line). On the daily SPY we can see that very easily. Every time after the FED rate cut, when the SPY starts to correct from highs, the 10sma is the bounce area into new highs. Because of that it is important for now to follow that support line. Unfortunately I must repeat again that the situation for swing traders isnât good. Iâm focused on "own way" stocks like NST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007nst.jpg , and again, it is important to use proper risk on them. I will watch for a bounce from the support areas. If we don't see a bounce, that will be good for our open short trades. If anyone has any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
The correction from highs continued. Wednesday's session started flat and without much change at the open. There is not much to say because the correction from Tuesday continued into Wednesday. We can easily see that on the 60 min charts. The DIA stayed in a channel and the correction pace stayed the same. We saw lower lows, and the Indices broke under their 20sma 60 min support area. I explained in yesterday's commentary that the 20sma 60 min is an important support area and if the indices donât hold it then we can expect more of a correction. That is exactly what we saw. The previous high for the QQQQ is the support area now and we can see the reaction on the chart to that area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007qqqq60.jpg
The \correction is still gradual and the reversal volume was not strong. That suggests the possibility for a bounce on Thursday. But, before that, I will expect to see more of a correction, possibly until the 10sma support areas on the daily charts. Should downside volume and pace increase, this possibility could change. For now the action suggests a possible bounce and this time we can expect to see the previous high hold on the first try. That means, if the indices bounce, I will use that situation for a maximum move to the previous high, and that will be the target area. Again, all depends on pace and volume.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10042007qqqq.jpg
I took a few short trades like EME http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007eme.jpg and MINI http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007mini.jpg in case we see a stronger reversal, but is it important to note that every overnight trade is higher risk now and I will continue to use small risk. That is very important now. The market is still strong and the 10sma is the first trend test. If we look to the past, the daily move up is above the 10sma (brown line). On the daily SPY we can see that very easily. Every time after the FED rate cut, when the SPY starts to correct from highs, the 10sma is the bounce area into new highs. Because of that it is important for now to follow that support line. Unfortunately I must repeat again that the situation for swing traders isnât good. Iâm focused on "own way" stocks like NST http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10032007nst.jpg , and again, it is important to use proper risk on them. I will watch for a bounce from the support areas. If we don't see a bounce, that will be good for our open short trades. If anyone has any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 10/05/2007
Good day!
The consolidation continued on Thursday. The SPY and the DIA formed NR7 bars (narrowest bar in last seven days). There is not much to tell about Thursday's action because if we look at the table above the intraday action produced this very narrow day. On the 60 min charts, this is quite clear. The QQQQ tried to break lower in the morning, but the daily 10sma (brown line) brought it back during the afternoon session and the indices closed above that daily support area. Right now we can expect a fight between the 10sma daily support area and the 20sma 60 min resistance area (blue line). Both are important areas for future direction.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007qqqq60.jpg
On the daily charts, we can see that the indices are holding very well for now with the resistance and gradual correction suggesting another possible move up. I think that the Indices have room for that. The QQQQ touched its' daily 10sma and bounced from that area. We can see that in the past this has resulted in new highs. After the NR7 bars, I will look for long possibilities and that will be my bias for Friday. But, as always, we will need to follow the market action. In the morning we have the jobâs data and that news can move the market in any direction. Jobs data comes out before the market opens and because of that I suggest members be careful with overnight trades. Open shorts did well, and we protected them. TUP is still strong and looks quite nice.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007qqqq.jpg
For Friday one thing is important and that is the NR7 bar. When we see an NR7 bar on the chart that situation increases the possibility for a trend day. Since we have news right before the open it is hard to predict the direction, but for now, the charts suggest a move up and that will be my focus. When we have the possibility for a trend day it is important to mark the 60 min high/low and very often when that is broken that direction will continue for the rest of the day. If we have a trend day, it will be important to follow the 10/20sma on the 5 min charts, because those two lines are the measure of a trend day. I will repeat from yesterday's commentary something that we can see on the daily charts. If you look at the daily SPY chart, you will see a bounce from the 10sma every time and that is what we want to see on the 5 min charts. Focus is on the long side, but with caution. Also I will pay attention to the 20sma 60 min and the daily 10sma. Both are very important areas for direction. As usual, if anyone has any questions, please contact me
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
The consolidation continued on Thursday. The SPY and the DIA formed NR7 bars (narrowest bar in last seven days). There is not much to tell about Thursday's action because if we look at the table above the intraday action produced this very narrow day. On the 60 min charts, this is quite clear. The QQQQ tried to break lower in the morning, but the daily 10sma (brown line) brought it back during the afternoon session and the indices closed above that daily support area. Right now we can expect a fight between the 10sma daily support area and the 20sma 60 min resistance area (blue line). Both are important areas for future direction.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007qqqq60.jpg
On the daily charts, we can see that the indices are holding very well for now with the resistance and gradual correction suggesting another possible move up. I think that the Indices have room for that. The QQQQ touched its' daily 10sma and bounced from that area. We can see that in the past this has resulted in new highs. After the NR7 bars, I will look for long possibilities and that will be my bias for Friday. But, as always, we will need to follow the market action. In the morning we have the jobâs data and that news can move the market in any direction. Jobs data comes out before the market opens and because of that I suggest members be careful with overnight trades. Open shorts did well, and we protected them. TUP is still strong and looks quite nice.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/10052007qqqq.jpg
For Friday one thing is important and that is the NR7 bar. When we see an NR7 bar on the chart that situation increases the possibility for a trend day. Since we have news right before the open it is hard to predict the direction, but for now, the charts suggest a move up and that will be my focus. When we have the possibility for a trend day it is important to mark the 60 min high/low and very often when that is broken that direction will continue for the rest of the day. If we have a trend day, it will be important to follow the 10/20sma on the 5 min charts, because those two lines are the measure of a trend day. I will repeat from yesterday's commentary something that we can see on the daily charts. If you look at the daily SPY chart, you will see a bounce from the 10sma every time and that is what we want to see on the 5 min charts. Focus is on the long side, but with caution. Also I will pay attention to the 20sma 60 min and the daily 10sma. Both are very important areas for direction. As usual, if anyone has any questions, please contact me
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic