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Market commentary
- Thread starter ivica
- Start date
Market commentary for 07/20/2007
Good day!
We got the gap up as expected. The QQQQ gapped up on new daily/weekly highs and for the SPY and the DIA to previous daily highs. That was it. My analysis can stop there because the rest of the day we saw range action without an intraday trend. The QQQQ tried, but the DIA and the SPY didnât move in any direction after the open.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007qqqq.jpg
On the 60 min charts we can see how that looks. The QQQQ saw daily equal move resistance area and that area held for now. The QQQQ formed a daily doji bar. The DIA and the SPY formed a handle after Wednesday cup pattern. All the indices stayed above the 20sma which suggests strong behavior.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007qqqq60.jpg
A cup and handle is usually a continuation pattern and suggest more strength today. The daily resistance areas caution us. Risk remains high and if market will break up I will trade only with small risk. Today is option expiration Friday and we can expect whippy intraday action. To avoid whippy stops I will use larger stops than usual and I will take profit faster than usual. Also we are in the earning session and summer trading can effect action today. Because of all that you must ask yourself: is it worth it? Usually during option Friday Iâm not active and very possible that will be case today. Maybe I will take a trade or two, but only with small risk. If I see it is not worth it I will close all day trades. Cash is a position too and patience is our friend. Please remember that stops are our friend too. Yesterday QCOM action is live example of that. Please donât avoid them. Better to take a stop than come in to âpray modeâ. Market will be here next week and next year so donât fall in trap to lose money on a day like today when risk is high. A good trader must recognize risk and know when it is time to be more or less active.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
We got the gap up as expected. The QQQQ gapped up on new daily/weekly highs and for the SPY and the DIA to previous daily highs. That was it. My analysis can stop there because the rest of the day we saw range action without an intraday trend. The QQQQ tried, but the DIA and the SPY didnât move in any direction after the open.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007qqqq.jpg
On the 60 min charts we can see how that looks. The QQQQ saw daily equal move resistance area and that area held for now. The QQQQ formed a daily doji bar. The DIA and the SPY formed a handle after Wednesday cup pattern. All the indices stayed above the 20sma which suggests strong behavior.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07202007qqqq60.jpg
A cup and handle is usually a continuation pattern and suggest more strength today. The daily resistance areas caution us. Risk remains high and if market will break up I will trade only with small risk. Today is option expiration Friday and we can expect whippy intraday action. To avoid whippy stops I will use larger stops than usual and I will take profit faster than usual. Also we are in the earning session and summer trading can effect action today. Because of all that you must ask yourself: is it worth it? Usually during option Friday Iâm not active and very possible that will be case today. Maybe I will take a trade or two, but only with small risk. If I see it is not worth it I will close all day trades. Cash is a position too and patience is our friend. Please remember that stops are our friend too. Yesterday QCOM action is live example of that. Please donât avoid them. Better to take a stop than come in to âpray modeâ. Market will be here next week and next year so donât fall in trap to lose money on a day like today when risk is high. A good trader must recognize risk and know when it is time to be more or less active.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 07/23/2007
Good day!
The market has come to a crossroads. This is not the first time since I began my service but it is the first time we have been in an extended quagmire. Summertime trading, earnings season, option expiration, holidays, low volume etc., etc. have all contributed to trendless high risk trading. Everyday I mention in my commentary the market is high risk. I mention that because I want to save you the time, frustration and money it has cost me in the past learning when to trade and when not to trade. My style of trading requires a market trend specifically for break out plays. Many of you have noticed with a trendless market good setups break and then they either sit and do nothing or reverse against us causing us to take a stop. Patience and capital preservation is needed at this time. The market will change, it may be a few more days or possibly weeks but it will change. It is important to remain in the game until that time happens.
The market opened with a strong gap down. CAT and GOOG did the opposite what IBM did the day before. Wednesday's low was the support area and held on Friday. That is the action of a chart that is topped out and is not unusual, especially during earnings season. It is important to follow the volume. If you remember I talked about light volume on the weekly breakup and I will like to cover that again because that is an important indicator. On the weekly charts we can see higher volume this week. The QQQQ and the DIA formed a doji bar which can be the indicator of changes, while the SPY was the weakest and finished in the red area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqqweekly.jpg
The volume difference is seen more clearer on the daily charts. Blue arrows show buying volume and red arrows show selling volume. The QQQQ is holding and the last few days buying volume is smaller than selling volume. Nothing dramatic, but it is still telling us about buying and selling interest. If we look at the DIA and the SPY chart we can see dramatic difference between them. The weekly and daily resistance areas and the light buying interest we can make conclusion that market has seen a top for now. That is important information for traders on the long side.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqq.jpg
The 60 min charts look like they are ready for a correction or bigger range action. The QQQQ is forming a possible head and shoulder pattern. Nothing for sure but something I will follow Monday. Depending on the 60 min correction from Fridayâs selling pressure we hopefully can predict the future of the DIA and the SPY action. If we see consolidation near support area (flag, base) then we can look for another selling wave. If we will see bounce above 20sma then we can expect range action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqq60.jpg
From last week my expectations haven't changed very much. The bull side is high risk now and I will use long days only for intraday moves, (âown wayâ charts are expectations) and I will trade them with small risk. Focus will be on possible swing shorts and I will start with small position and if it will improve then I will add. Reason for that it is not clearly a daily situation. I think that market is topped, but that does not mean we will see a strong reversal. We can see that but we can also see daily/weekly consolidation at the highs. The volume difference is telling us that bull are smug and they need rest. Right now we donât have a trend on the daily chart and before that we must be more cautious and use proper risk.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
The market has come to a crossroads. This is not the first time since I began my service but it is the first time we have been in an extended quagmire. Summertime trading, earnings season, option expiration, holidays, low volume etc., etc. have all contributed to trendless high risk trading. Everyday I mention in my commentary the market is high risk. I mention that because I want to save you the time, frustration and money it has cost me in the past learning when to trade and when not to trade. My style of trading requires a market trend specifically for break out plays. Many of you have noticed with a trendless market good setups break and then they either sit and do nothing or reverse against us causing us to take a stop. Patience and capital preservation is needed at this time. The market will change, it may be a few more days or possibly weeks but it will change. It is important to remain in the game until that time happens.
The market opened with a strong gap down. CAT and GOOG did the opposite what IBM did the day before. Wednesday's low was the support area and held on Friday. That is the action of a chart that is topped out and is not unusual, especially during earnings season. It is important to follow the volume. If you remember I talked about light volume on the weekly breakup and I will like to cover that again because that is an important indicator. On the weekly charts we can see higher volume this week. The QQQQ and the DIA formed a doji bar which can be the indicator of changes, while the SPY was the weakest and finished in the red area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqqweekly.jpg
The volume difference is seen more clearer on the daily charts. Blue arrows show buying volume and red arrows show selling volume. The QQQQ is holding and the last few days buying volume is smaller than selling volume. Nothing dramatic, but it is still telling us about buying and selling interest. If we look at the DIA and the SPY chart we can see dramatic difference between them. The weekly and daily resistance areas and the light buying interest we can make conclusion that market has seen a top for now. That is important information for traders on the long side.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqq.jpg
The 60 min charts look like they are ready for a correction or bigger range action. The QQQQ is forming a possible head and shoulder pattern. Nothing for sure but something I will follow Monday. Depending on the 60 min correction from Fridayâs selling pressure we hopefully can predict the future of the DIA and the SPY action. If we see consolidation near support area (flag, base) then we can look for another selling wave. If we will see bounce above 20sma then we can expect range action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07232007qqqq60.jpg
From last week my expectations haven't changed very much. The bull side is high risk now and I will use long days only for intraday moves, (âown wayâ charts are expectations) and I will trade them with small risk. Focus will be on possible swing shorts and I will start with small position and if it will improve then I will add. Reason for that it is not clearly a daily situation. I think that market is topped, but that does not mean we will see a strong reversal. We can see that but we can also see daily/weekly consolidation at the highs. The volume difference is telling us that bull are smug and they need rest. Right now we donât have a trend on the daily chart and before that we must be more cautious and use proper risk.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 07/24/2007
Good day!
We had a very slow day with little change in the indices. Volume was very light and without MRK and the a large oil drilling merger the market did nothing. I would say there is little buying interest and I will be extra cautious on new long trades
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007qqqq.jpg
There really is nothing more to say about yesterday market action . We had a divergent market all day between the DIA strength and the QQQQ weakness which added to the already high risk. On the 60 min charts we can see that only the DIA is holding above 20sma while the SPY and the QQQQ have that area as resistance for now. Also we can see that all three Indices the last several days are acting in a wild range which is the result of consolidation after strong move into new highs. Daily and weekly charts still look strong but volume is a problem for me and we canât ignore light interest on positive days.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007qqqq60.jpg
On the 60 min charts I can possibly see the action which we might expect tomorrow and that is what I will follow. Conclusion is that I expect more daily correction and my bias is on short side. We can't forget that we are in earning session and this week we have number of earnings which can easily help gap the market in the morning. Until the Indices stay in a 60 min range risk will stay high. My way to trade this market is that I use small risk and I trade with less shares than usual. When I am confident that an open position will improve I will add on an intraday setup. Open positions that do not improve I will close and that way I try to save my capital. Right now (last days) we haven't gotten help from market for swing trades and because of that we must be very patient and trade with less risk. Focus is more on intraday moves. All day I compare chart actions with market action and on that way I try to find movers. I see number of good setups, but most of them end up not having intraday strength or weakness which we like to see after setup. Because of that , PLEASE be cautious and save money. This market is an elimination market and weak hands will be pushed from trading if they don't trade smart. Market will come back, it always has and always will. Together with summer slow trading we must be patient. Summer is the time of year when we have fewer opportunities and we must be very picky. Keep that in mind, because we will have action again and save your bullets for that
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
We had a very slow day with little change in the indices. Volume was very light and without MRK and the a large oil drilling merger the market did nothing. I would say there is little buying interest and I will be extra cautious on new long trades
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007qqqq.jpg
There really is nothing more to say about yesterday market action . We had a divergent market all day between the DIA strength and the QQQQ weakness which added to the already high risk. On the 60 min charts we can see that only the DIA is holding above 20sma while the SPY and the QQQQ have that area as resistance for now. Also we can see that all three Indices the last several days are acting in a wild range which is the result of consolidation after strong move into new highs. Daily and weekly charts still look strong but volume is a problem for me and we canât ignore light interest on positive days.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07242007qqqq60.jpg
On the 60 min charts I can possibly see the action which we might expect tomorrow and that is what I will follow. Conclusion is that I expect more daily correction and my bias is on short side. We can't forget that we are in earning session and this week we have number of earnings which can easily help gap the market in the morning. Until the Indices stay in a 60 min range risk will stay high. My way to trade this market is that I use small risk and I trade with less shares than usual. When I am confident that an open position will improve I will add on an intraday setup. Open positions that do not improve I will close and that way I try to save my capital. Right now (last days) we haven't gotten help from market for swing trades and because of that we must be very patient and trade with less risk. Focus is more on intraday moves. All day I compare chart actions with market action and on that way I try to find movers. I see number of good setups, but most of them end up not having intraday strength or weakness which we like to see after setup. Because of that , PLEASE be cautious and save money. This market is an elimination market and weak hands will be pushed from trading if they don't trade smart. Market will come back, it always has and always will. Together with summer slow trading we must be patient. Summer is the time of year when we have fewer opportunities and we must be very picky. Keep that in mind, because we will have action again and save your bullets for that
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 07/25/2007
Good day!
The correction from the daily highs continued yesterday with strong selling to the daily support areas. The day started with a gap down and the intraday (60 min) support areas held during the morning. The QQQQ was strongest and filled the morning gap but couldnât break above the 20sma 60 min. The morning correction from the gap held until 13:00 pm ET reversal period when the selling pressure started and brought the Indices to the area that I expected from the morning. The SPY couldnât hold above 20/50 sma daily support area and there was plenty of room for selling pressure. The SPY found support at the previous daily low. For the QQQQ and the DIA the next support was the 20sma on the daily chart. Again notice the buying and selling volume. This is the indicator that I talk about in every market commentary. Also, those who follow my commentary can remember Mondays update. The weekly charts gave us signal for yesterday action. We can never know exactly when the market will sell off, but light buying volume telling us there is weak buying interest.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007qqqq.jpg
On the 60 min charts we can see the scenario I expected and yesterday we got more than the equal move with a strong selling pace. We can see that the SPY is the weakest (couldnât hold 200sma) and we see that on the daily chart also.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007qqqq60.jpg
I mentioned yesterday that the only direction that I was interested in was the short side. This was because of the previous range and low buying volume. The brought us to a very risky long side or an easier and less risky short sale. Now what? We canât forget the larger time frames and on the weekly chart we still have uptrend and a bullish market. I donât expect that bulls will quit that easily. The daily support areas are also strong. Usually the 20sma will hold the first try and we have extended intraday action right now. I do not expect much more selling pressure today. Yesterday we got a move that is expected and now we need intraday consolidation for a continued move. It will be best to see consolidations at the lows and a possible daily continuation pattern, but market doesn't ask us what we want. I will look for a possible bounce from strong daily support areas what will be useful only for intraday moves (day and scalp trades). It is important not to overtrade and give back all of yesterday's profit. After a large move we need rest and that is usually back and forth action. Donât forget that we are still in earning season and morning gaps can destroy patterns from the previous day. Safest place is still with intraday setups. Risk is still high and I expect same throughout the summer. I will go day by day and we will see where the market will bring us.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
The correction from the daily highs continued yesterday with strong selling to the daily support areas. The day started with a gap down and the intraday (60 min) support areas held during the morning. The QQQQ was strongest and filled the morning gap but couldnât break above the 20sma 60 min. The morning correction from the gap held until 13:00 pm ET reversal period when the selling pressure started and brought the Indices to the area that I expected from the morning. The SPY couldnât hold above 20/50 sma daily support area and there was plenty of room for selling pressure. The SPY found support at the previous daily low. For the QQQQ and the DIA the next support was the 20sma on the daily chart. Again notice the buying and selling volume. This is the indicator that I talk about in every market commentary. Also, those who follow my commentary can remember Mondays update. The weekly charts gave us signal for yesterday action. We can never know exactly when the market will sell off, but light buying volume telling us there is weak buying interest.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007qqqq.jpg
On the 60 min charts we can see the scenario I expected and yesterday we got more than the equal move with a strong selling pace. We can see that the SPY is the weakest (couldnât hold 200sma) and we see that on the daily chart also.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07252007qqqq60.jpg
I mentioned yesterday that the only direction that I was interested in was the short side. This was because of the previous range and low buying volume. The brought us to a very risky long side or an easier and less risky short sale. Now what? We canât forget the larger time frames and on the weekly chart we still have uptrend and a bullish market. I donât expect that bulls will quit that easily. The daily support areas are also strong. Usually the 20sma will hold the first try and we have extended intraday action right now. I do not expect much more selling pressure today. Yesterday we got a move that is expected and now we need intraday consolidation for a continued move. It will be best to see consolidations at the lows and a possible daily continuation pattern, but market doesn't ask us what we want. I will look for a possible bounce from strong daily support areas what will be useful only for intraday moves (day and scalp trades). It is important not to overtrade and give back all of yesterday's profit. After a large move we need rest and that is usually back and forth action. Donât forget that we are still in earning season and morning gaps can destroy patterns from the previous day. Safest place is still with intraday setups. Risk is still high and I expect same throughout the summer. I will go day by day and we will see where the market will bring us.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 07/27/2007
Good day!
What a day! The indices gapped down at the open and only the QQQQ had the strength to the fill gap in the morning. During the day the QQQQ remained the strongest but it too sold off in the panic. After the morning try for a bounce and after 10:30 reversal period we saw a strong trend move down. The indices couldnât break above the 20sma 5 min and 10sma 15 min which is a signal for a strong intraday selling pace. In the room we followed that action and I explained why this action was not unusual from a technical view. The indices couldnât find support and the DIA was more than 400 points down. When the QQQQ couldnât get back above 20sma daily and when the DIA lost the 20/50 sma daily supports there was room for strong selling. During day we saw panic selling which may indicate that we (very possible) saw the daily bottom for now.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007qqqq.jpg
The DIA couldnât stay above 200sma 60 min, same as the QQQQ and gave us more than an equal move. This was expected because of a strong intraday selling pace. When we have that a strong pace we can look for more than an equal move especially when we have support on the bigger time frames for that action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007qqqq60.jpg
Yesterday we saw one of biggest bars in a while with huge volume. What does that indicate? A bottom perhaps. I donât think the market will come back fast unless we see an intraday âVâ bottom pattern. Usually that is not kind of action what we get after days like today. I will look for a consolidation day today which is usual after a strong move. Look at the QQQQ daily chart after todays market action. It is almost back and is telling us again it is the strongest. The SPY is the weakest and the DIA is in the middle. I wonât be surprised if the SPY will try to retest yesterday's low area. Right now I expect that this support area will hold and he SPY will close above 20sma on the weekly chart. Rght now we closed all trades. This is because a new short is too risk and most of them saw their lows. Right now Iâm not interested in swing trades unless I find âown wayâ charts and that will be the main focus for today's watch list. I will use the % column to find stocks with range action yesterday. Iâm not interested in extended charts for swing trade. They are good only for intraday reversal patterns and that will be second focus today. For possible reversals I will use max for day/scalp purposes. Donât forget that today is summer Friday in earning season.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
What a day! The indices gapped down at the open and only the QQQQ had the strength to the fill gap in the morning. During the day the QQQQ remained the strongest but it too sold off in the panic. After the morning try for a bounce and after 10:30 reversal period we saw a strong trend move down. The indices couldnât break above the 20sma 5 min and 10sma 15 min which is a signal for a strong intraday selling pace. In the room we followed that action and I explained why this action was not unusual from a technical view. The indices couldnât find support and the DIA was more than 400 points down. When the QQQQ couldnât get back above 20sma daily and when the DIA lost the 20/50 sma daily supports there was room for strong selling. During day we saw panic selling which may indicate that we (very possible) saw the daily bottom for now.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007qqqq.jpg
The DIA couldnât stay above 200sma 60 min, same as the QQQQ and gave us more than an equal move. This was expected because of a strong intraday selling pace. When we have that a strong pace we can look for more than an equal move especially when we have support on the bigger time frames for that action.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07272007qqqq60.jpg
Yesterday we saw one of biggest bars in a while with huge volume. What does that indicate? A bottom perhaps. I donât think the market will come back fast unless we see an intraday âVâ bottom pattern. Usually that is not kind of action what we get after days like today. I will look for a consolidation day today which is usual after a strong move. Look at the QQQQ daily chart after todays market action. It is almost back and is telling us again it is the strongest. The SPY is the weakest and the DIA is in the middle. I wonât be surprised if the SPY will try to retest yesterday's low area. Right now I expect that this support area will hold and he SPY will close above 20sma on the weekly chart. Rght now we closed all trades. This is because a new short is too risk and most of them saw their lows. Right now Iâm not interested in swing trades unless I find âown wayâ charts and that will be the main focus for today's watch list. I will use the % column to find stocks with range action yesterday. Iâm not interested in extended charts for swing trade. They are good only for intraday reversal patterns and that will be second focus today. For possible reversals I will use max for day/scalp purposes. Donât forget that today is summer Friday in earning season.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
For trading ideas look at: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=72864
Market commentary for 07/30/2007
Good day!
Where is the bottom? The indices continued to trade on fear and of credit concerns. With a strong downdraft at the close the indices closed at the lows for the day and week. The day began with a small gap on good GDP numbers but buying was weak. This was not the V bottom scenario we were hoping for. I was also looking for a double bottom or rounding lows for possible afternoon break up from intraday trend down, but market was to weak for that. Despite the weak market action we had several very nice day trades on both sides (GOOG, NAK, WCC). That was much more than I expected and we proved that traders can make money in both directions if they trade smart with reasonable risk.
Now what? We don't know but the charts can help us find a way. Letâs start with weekly charts to see damage what we saw last week.
On all the charts we can see extremely big volume and an extremely big red bar, opened at top and closed at the bottom. If you remember my worry about breaking up to new highs without volume this action is proof why I was hesitant at that time to institute new swing long trades. On the SPY weekly chart we can see a double top and false breakout. The SPY is on the support area and it still has a little room to see another strong support of the 50sma. As you know, usually the 1st try to break the 20sma will hold, but this time the SPY weekly chart is telling us about very strong weakness there. Lately the QQQQ has been the strongest which we can see on the chart. We found support at the 10sma and the previous resistance area, while the DIA found support at 20sma and the previous weekly low. Conclusion is that on the weekly charts Indices are holding here on a strong support area
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqqweekly.jpg
Letâs look at the daily charts. The DIA is at the previous low support area and has a little room until 100sma, the SPY is at 200sma (strong support area) and the QQQQ is at the 50sma. Conclusion is that we see strong support areas on the daily charts too
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqq.jpg
On the 60 min chart the SPY and the DIA are on the move. The SPY closed at 145 number support area, while the DIA have room for more selling to see 100sma daily. The QQQQ can see double bottom pattern.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqq60.jpg
Conclusion is that we don't know where the bottom is nor can we can see more selling We do know that Indices are on STRONG support areas and after several strong selling days obviously any new short trade any more than a scalp is a HIGH risk game. My focus for now will not be on the short side. Maybe we can find an intraday fast trade possibility like WCC on Friday, but I donât expect anything longer. We saw panic selling and strong correction from highs but on the weekly charts the Indices are still in an uptrend and I donât expect that we will see new highs soon and they will not be easy. I think that we can expect a bounce and correction from strong weekly/daily support areas. What kind of bounce we don't know right now, but our focus must be on the daily strong charts. Looking for them to predict market action and on intraday reversal patterns (double bottom, rounding low, phoenix). That will be my focus this week. I will look for stronger names and long trades. Not swing trades. For now, until we will see correction from lows (when we are sure that we have a low in place) best is to stay is with intraday moves. Last week we had extreme reaction to news etc. and this is not the time for full risk trades. We must see clear situation before that. In other words we got a move and now is time for rest. What kind of rest we will see that is something what we will figure. Looking at the past after a strong correction the Indices gave us another swing move up with new highs and that we see a 2nd weekly buying wave. Can we see this after this correction with the same action to the 3rd wave? I donât know, but I do know that our eyes must be open and we must follow the market and keep in mind that possibility also. We are still in a weekly uptrend market.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 07/30/2007
Good day!
Where is the bottom? The indices continued to trade on fear and of credit concerns. With a strong downdraft at the close the indices closed at the lows for the day and week. The day began with a small gap on good GDP numbers but buying was weak. This was not the V bottom scenario we were hoping for. I was also looking for a double bottom or rounding lows for possible afternoon break up from intraday trend down, but market was to weak for that. Despite the weak market action we had several very nice day trades on both sides (GOOG, NAK, WCC). That was much more than I expected and we proved that traders can make money in both directions if they trade smart with reasonable risk.
Now what? We don't know but the charts can help us find a way. Letâs start with weekly charts to see damage what we saw last week.
On all the charts we can see extremely big volume and an extremely big red bar, opened at top and closed at the bottom. If you remember my worry about breaking up to new highs without volume this action is proof why I was hesitant at that time to institute new swing long trades. On the SPY weekly chart we can see a double top and false breakout. The SPY is on the support area and it still has a little room to see another strong support of the 50sma. As you know, usually the 1st try to break the 20sma will hold, but this time the SPY weekly chart is telling us about very strong weakness there. Lately the QQQQ has been the strongest which we can see on the chart. We found support at the 10sma and the previous resistance area, while the DIA found support at 20sma and the previous weekly low. Conclusion is that on the weekly charts Indices are holding here on a strong support area
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007diaweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spyweekly.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqqweekly.jpg
Letâs look at the daily charts. The DIA is at the previous low support area and has a little room until 100sma, the SPY is at 200sma (strong support area) and the QQQQ is at the 50sma. Conclusion is that we see strong support areas on the daily charts too
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqq.jpg
On the 60 min chart the SPY and the DIA are on the move. The SPY closed at 145 number support area, while the DIA have room for more selling to see 100sma daily. The QQQQ can see double bottom pattern.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07302007qqqq60.jpg
Conclusion is that we don't know where the bottom is nor can we can see more selling We do know that Indices are on STRONG support areas and after several strong selling days obviously any new short trade any more than a scalp is a HIGH risk game. My focus for now will not be on the short side. Maybe we can find an intraday fast trade possibility like WCC on Friday, but I donât expect anything longer. We saw panic selling and strong correction from highs but on the weekly charts the Indices are still in an uptrend and I donât expect that we will see new highs soon and they will not be easy. I think that we can expect a bounce and correction from strong weekly/daily support areas. What kind of bounce we don't know right now, but our focus must be on the daily strong charts. Looking for them to predict market action and on intraday reversal patterns (double bottom, rounding low, phoenix). That will be my focus this week. I will look for stronger names and long trades. Not swing trades. For now, until we will see correction from lows (when we are sure that we have a low in place) best is to stay is with intraday moves. Last week we had extreme reaction to news etc. and this is not the time for full risk trades. We must see clear situation before that. In other words we got a move and now is time for rest. What kind of rest we will see that is something what we will figure. Looking at the past after a strong correction the Indices gave us another swing move up with new highs and that we see a 2nd weekly buying wave. Can we see this after this correction with the same action to the 3rd wave? I donât know, but I do know that our eyes must be open and we must follow the market and keep in mind that possibility also. We are still in a weekly uptrend market.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 07/31/2007
Good day!
Selling pressure finally abated. That was expected since the strong daily and weekly support held. The day started with small gap up and as usual a small gap will be filled right at the open. After the open the Indices started with choppy intraday action sort of like they didnât know what direction to take or with other words they needed a rest from the strong selling pressure last week.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqqq.jpg
Usually after strong move in any direction and we don't see a âVâ pattern and strong bounce. That pattern will come after the first pullback from the high to the support area. Last week we saw more than the first pullback from the highs. Especially for the SPY which broke under the previous daily low without rest. Most of time we will see a rounding bottom started. Continued with choppy action and finally a choppy phoenix pattern. That is what we saw yesterday on the 5 min charts. When we have strong daily/weekly moves we must go on smaller time frames to find the bottom possibility and 5 min chart is good time frame for that. On the 5 min charts, we can see that after double bottom, Indices form a choppy phoenix and that was bottom for yesterday. This kind of action is very usual after strong moves on the bigger time frames (daily/weekly). Buying pace was not strong which was again expected. As I said above we canât expect a âVâ bottom. After 3 buying waves every other buying wave breakout is more and more risky and we can look for a correction.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia5.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy5.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqq5q.jpg
We can see a clearer buying pace on the 60 min charts. The DIA was the weakest and we can see that yesterday's buying pace was weaker than Fridayâs selling pace. From that action we can expect more choppy action and possible 30/60 min rounding bottom which is more expected after the strong selling on the daily charts. The DIA and the SPY closed under 20sma 60 min, while the QQQQ stuck under 200sma and 20sma 60 min.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqqq60.jpg
Now what? I will look for 30/60 min rounding bottom as a real bottom from last weeks selling pressure and strong daily/weekly support area. That means we could see intraday up/down action today. Of course, nothing is 100% sure and since we are still in earning season we can see a strong gap up today in the morning. I tried to explain the situation which is most common after extended moves. Since I donât know if will see gap in the morning, I will look for selling pressure in the morning (Fridayâs low should hold) and bounce again into the 60 min 20sma resistance area. That action we call rounding bottom. This is a common scenario but we canât blindly follow that. We will see what market will bring at the open. From this explanation one thing is 100% sure. That is most important thing for us, and that is risk. Right now it is high and it will be same until market decides its direction. Best trades come from OWN WAY charts like NAK, VDSI and AMAT yesterday and that will stay in my focus. For others I will look for strongest and weakest names for intraday purposes.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
Selling pressure finally abated. That was expected since the strong daily and weekly support held. The day started with small gap up and as usual a small gap will be filled right at the open. After the open the Indices started with choppy intraday action sort of like they didnât know what direction to take or with other words they needed a rest from the strong selling pressure last week.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqqq.jpg
Usually after strong move in any direction and we don't see a âVâ pattern and strong bounce. That pattern will come after the first pullback from the high to the support area. Last week we saw more than the first pullback from the highs. Especially for the SPY which broke under the previous daily low without rest. Most of time we will see a rounding bottom started. Continued with choppy action and finally a choppy phoenix pattern. That is what we saw yesterday on the 5 min charts. When we have strong daily/weekly moves we must go on smaller time frames to find the bottom possibility and 5 min chart is good time frame for that. On the 5 min charts, we can see that after double bottom, Indices form a choppy phoenix and that was bottom for yesterday. This kind of action is very usual after strong moves on the bigger time frames (daily/weekly). Buying pace was not strong which was again expected. As I said above we canât expect a âVâ bottom. After 3 buying waves every other buying wave breakout is more and more risky and we can look for a correction.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia5.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy5.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqq5q.jpg
We can see a clearer buying pace on the 60 min charts. The DIA was the weakest and we can see that yesterday's buying pace was weaker than Fridayâs selling pace. From that action we can expect more choppy action and possible 30/60 min rounding bottom which is more expected after the strong selling on the daily charts. The DIA and the SPY closed under 20sma 60 min, while the QQQQ stuck under 200sma and 20sma 60 min.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/07312007qqqq60.jpg
Now what? I will look for 30/60 min rounding bottom as a real bottom from last weeks selling pressure and strong daily/weekly support area. That means we could see intraday up/down action today. Of course, nothing is 100% sure and since we are still in earning season we can see a strong gap up today in the morning. I tried to explain the situation which is most common after extended moves. Since I donât know if will see gap in the morning, I will look for selling pressure in the morning (Fridayâs low should hold) and bounce again into the 60 min 20sma resistance area. That action we call rounding bottom. This is a common scenario but we canât blindly follow that. We will see what market will bring at the open. From this explanation one thing is 100% sure. That is most important thing for us, and that is risk. Right now it is high and it will be same until market decides its direction. Best trades come from OWN WAY charts like NAK, VDSI and AMAT yesterday and that will stay in my focus. For others I will look for strongest and weakest names for intraday purposes.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 08/01/2007
Good day!
Today's early rally can be characterized in the same way as building a house without a foundation. Once enough people climbed on board and drove it high enough it came crashing down. A few big cap stocks in the DIA (GM, JNJ, CAT and MO) rallied early creating a huge gain in the DIA, unfortunately nothing else followed. With the price of oil closing at an all time high and HAM reopening down 90 percent on bad mortgages the market collapsed.
Looking at the daily charts the QQQQ broke daily support at the 50 sma, the DIA remained below support and the SPY held 200 sma support.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007qqqq.jpg
Looking at the 60 min charts all support now becomes resistance. After this type of selloff the market has more room to the downside, but it also needs to consolidate. Unless we get several days of consolidation we remain in a news and earnings driven market without a clear trend.
Fundamentally looking at sectors you can see the financials sold off on credit concerns and interesting is the oil and energy stocks sold off late even with oil closing at a high.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007qqqq60.jpg
The market is still in a longer term weekly uptrend, the daily is breaking down so swing trades are extremely high risk. I will look for own way and day trades tomorrow. My bias is bearish heading into today. Hopefully we will consolidate at these lows to provide lower risk short trades. Another possibility is we sell off very hard at the open, at least 250 to 300 DIA points and we put in a V bottom and I will look long trades.
With earnings and news I expect to open with a small gap and I will monitor the market from that point.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
Today's early rally can be characterized in the same way as building a house without a foundation. Once enough people climbed on board and drove it high enough it came crashing down. A few big cap stocks in the DIA (GM, JNJ, CAT and MO) rallied early creating a huge gain in the DIA, unfortunately nothing else followed. With the price of oil closing at an all time high and HAM reopening down 90 percent on bad mortgages the market collapsed.
Looking at the daily charts the QQQQ broke daily support at the 50 sma, the DIA remained below support and the SPY held 200 sma support.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007qqqq.jpg
Looking at the 60 min charts all support now becomes resistance. After this type of selloff the market has more room to the downside, but it also needs to consolidate. Unless we get several days of consolidation we remain in a news and earnings driven market without a clear trend.
Fundamentally looking at sectors you can see the financials sold off on credit concerns and interesting is the oil and energy stocks sold off late even with oil closing at a high.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08012007qqqq60.jpg
The market is still in a longer term weekly uptrend, the daily is breaking down so swing trades are extremely high risk. I will look for own way and day trades tomorrow. My bias is bearish heading into today. Hopefully we will consolidate at these lows to provide lower risk short trades. Another possibility is we sell off very hard at the open, at least 250 to 300 DIA points and we put in a V bottom and I will look long trades.
With earnings and news I expect to open with a small gap and I will monitor the market from that point.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 08/02/2007
Good day!
The only thing that can be taken from yesterday's market action is the indices may have put in a bottom. The whole day we saw slow, choppy and high risk intraday action. We tried a couple of trades with small risk and they did not do very well. We showed patience and just watched the market. The last 30 min finally brought action but that was to late for a solid entry others than scalps.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007qqqq.jpg
The buying pace was stronger than the selling pace and that indicates a higher possibility that Indices have found a daily bottom for now. Volume was higher which also helps that conclusion. The DIA was strongest all day and on last 30 min bounce it broke above 20sma 60 min without rest. The SPY and the QQQQ were not as strong and are still under that important intraday support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007qqqq60.jpg
I never try to pick a bottom and I always wait for the initial move (bounce). Right now, Iâm highly interested to see 30/60 min consolidation (base, triangle, flag). If we get something like that I will trade that because that is reversal pattern (phoenix). Without consolidation (pattern) risk is still too high and I will just wait. I donât expect (for now) to see daily âVâ bottom. I will expect more whippy daily action and because of that I think risk for swing traders remains the same. The safest way to trade now is trading intraday moves (day/scalp). So for me everything remains the same.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
Good day!
The only thing that can be taken from yesterday's market action is the indices may have put in a bottom. The whole day we saw slow, choppy and high risk intraday action. We tried a couple of trades with small risk and they did not do very well. We showed patience and just watched the market. The last 30 min finally brought action but that was to late for a solid entry others than scalps.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007dia.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007spy.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007qqqq.jpg
The buying pace was stronger than the selling pace and that indicates a higher possibility that Indices have found a daily bottom for now. Volume was higher which also helps that conclusion. The DIA was strongest all day and on last 30 min bounce it broke above 20sma 60 min without rest. The SPY and the QQQQ were not as strong and are still under that important intraday support area.
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007dia60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007spy60.jpg
http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/08022007qqqq60.jpg
I never try to pick a bottom and I always wait for the initial move (bounce). Right now, Iâm highly interested to see 30/60 min consolidation (base, triangle, flag). If we get something like that I will trade that because that is reversal pattern (phoenix). Without consolidation (pattern) risk is still too high and I will just wait. I donât expect (for now) to see daily âVâ bottom. I will expect more whippy daily action and because of that I think risk for swing traders remains the same. The safest way to trade now is trading intraday moves (day/scalp). So for me everything remains the same.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic