Oh, lucky you. And unlucky me - we've just lost 0:2 to those damn Azzuros (read: Italians), so no worldcup for Germany this year.
Have you ever found value in a countertrend-strategy?
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Oh, lucky you. And unlucky me - we've just lost 0:2 to those damn Azzuros (read: Italians), so no worldcup for Germany this year.
Have you ever found value in a countertrend-strategy?
Congratulations on cracking the code. Now go sell your house and everything you own to put your money where your mouth is. You'll be rich by hte end of the week i bet...
Hope everyone had a great fourth. Did ya'll end it with a bang 
Bond King, I put me $$$ in the bank. I earn the equivalent of a mid manager's salary putting cash to work less than 30 minutes per day. Two losing days of the past twenty and average 12 ER ticks per day. I specialize in the pre open and open of my market and I think of trading as earning a salary, not making a killing.
And no, none of my strategies are counter-trend. It also depends on one's defination of counter trend. The crux of any method I design or evaluate is how does it identify the current trend and on what time frame. I learned the hard way that counter trend methods are fueled by ego and greed. One wants to be proven right AND grab every tick of a particular move. For the longer term strategy, if the market is down for the day and I get a signal to go long, I will take the trade because the immediate trend has changed.
For the money maker method, the rules are still hazy. But so far the maximum drawdown for the day will be 3 consecutive losing trades of any size, maximum 15 ticks per trade. If that occurs, stop trading for the day. I am considering using the opening method to build a profit a cushion, then switch to the longer term strategy after 9:00 am
Today's trades:
S 728.00 8:34
R 726.40 8:40 1.60
S 726.10 8:44 -.30
Total ticks: 13
Bond King, I put me $$$ in the bank. I earn the equivalent of a mid manager's salary putting cash to work less than 30 minutes per day. Two losing days of the past twenty and average 12 ER ticks per day. I specialize in the pre open and open of my market and I think of trading as earning a salary, not making a killing.
And no, none of my strategies are counter-trend. It also depends on one's defination of counter trend. The crux of any method I design or evaluate is how does it identify the current trend and on what time frame. I learned the hard way that counter trend methods are fueled by ego and greed. One wants to be proven right AND grab every tick of a particular move. For the longer term strategy, if the market is down for the day and I get a signal to go long, I will take the trade because the immediate trend has changed.
For the money maker method, the rules are still hazy. But so far the maximum drawdown for the day will be 3 consecutive losing trades of any size, maximum 15 ticks per trade. If that occurs, stop trading for the day. I am considering using the opening method to build a profit a cushion, then switch to the longer term strategy after 9:00 am
Today's trades:
S 728.00 8:34
R 726.40 8:40 1.60
S 726.10 8:44 -.30
Total ticks: 13
It's fantastic to witness this evolution.
My suggestion - stick with the plan of putting half of your trading earnings or more aside, so that, should the everchanging nature of markets hit you on the wrong foot unexpectedly, no mini LTCM arises.
My suggestion - stick with the plan of putting half of your trading earnings or more aside, so that, should the everchanging nature of markets hit you on the wrong foot unexpectedly, no mini LTCM arises.
My evolution as a trader has been thus:
Greed. Easy cash for the taking on Wall Street.
Not quite so easy. Holy Grail method failed miserably. But not so miserable that I could fade all its signals. Statistical equivalent of flipping a coin.
Scrambled to learn every indicator, its variations and equivalents. Spent hours and many late nights scrolling thru guru sites and salivated at the thought of purchasing someone's treasure map for a mere $99.99. Those systems were my lottery ticket. Shelling out $1 for a one-in-a-million chance for about as much cash is a tax for the stupid. I had no trouble shelling out $99 and above to learn to fish from someone's "proven" moneymaker.
Scoured message boards for tidbits and clues for winning systems. Hounded respondents for ever more information into their market ways.
Was fortunate that one of these respondents gave me the information I needed. Gave me the trading rules and even emailed me his indicators thinking they were custom and not available anywhere else. He was wrong.
The very first post of this thread is actually his method with a slight twist from me. I discovered the trades were too frequent and taking 20 trades for an average of 50 ticks gross profit and 40 tick net is too much risk.
Being half Chinese, one of our talents as a people is taking an existing idea and refining it to perfection.
And I took my cue from none other than Mr. William Gates III himself. The idea and method for DOS and thus Windows did not originate with MicroSoft-- It came from Xerox.
Now I watch the market because I love it. I can easily chill after 9:00am but I like to watch the market unfold during the day. One day, I will be a part of that unfolding.
Greed. Easy cash for the taking on Wall Street.
Not quite so easy. Holy Grail method failed miserably. But not so miserable that I could fade all its signals. Statistical equivalent of flipping a coin.
Scrambled to learn every indicator, its variations and equivalents. Spent hours and many late nights scrolling thru guru sites and salivated at the thought of purchasing someone's treasure map for a mere $99.99. Those systems were my lottery ticket. Shelling out $1 for a one-in-a-million chance for about as much cash is a tax for the stupid. I had no trouble shelling out $99 and above to learn to fish from someone's "proven" moneymaker.
Scoured message boards for tidbits and clues for winning systems. Hounded respondents for ever more information into their market ways.
Was fortunate that one of these respondents gave me the information I needed. Gave me the trading rules and even emailed me his indicators thinking they were custom and not available anywhere else. He was wrong.
The very first post of this thread is actually his method with a slight twist from me. I discovered the trades were too frequent and taking 20 trades for an average of 50 ticks gross profit and 40 tick net is too much risk.
Being half Chinese, one of our talents as a people is taking an existing idea and refining it to perfection.
And I took my cue from none other than Mr. William Gates III himself. The idea and method for DOS and thus Windows did not originate with MicroSoft-- It came from Xerox.
Now I watch the market because I love it. I can easily chill after 9:00am but I like to watch the market unfold during the day. One day, I will be a part of that unfolding.
Well, I read my Schwager wholeheartedly enough not to fall for any 99.99 , 999.99 or even 4,999.99 US$ systems. And never will.
But those boards are invaluable.
Do I understand you correctly - the method you initally introduced in this thread failed miserably? Or do you mean its predeccesor?
But those boards are invaluable.
Do I understand you correctly - the method you initally introduced in this thread failed miserably? Or do you mean its predeccesor?
My initial very very first strategy failed miserably. It was a 10 / 50 MA crossover on 1 minute chart for trading ES. Trade all the crosses and reverse at the uncrosses. No stops. How's that for a newbie's Holy Grail?
It was thru the scouring of message boards that lead me to ET.
The first post, I earned 290 ticks. The second day I earned 70 ticks and stopped trading it because of the discrepancy. It did not fit my later rule of average 10 ticks gross profit per trade. After thousands of hours of observation and thought, one develops an instinct of what is viable. Here's results for today's longer term strategy. Stop and reverse. 15 tick maximum stop loss. 3 losing trades consecutive and trading ends that day. Exit no later than 15:05
S 725.90 8:40
B 722.80 9:19 3.10
S 722.50 9:44 -.30
B 721.00 10:22 1.50
S 722.30 11:36 1.30
B 723.70 11:50 -1.40
S 723.70 12:56 0
B 725.00 13:35 -1.30
S 725.30 14:06 .30
B 724.20 14:47 1.10
S 724.10 15:04 -.10
Total trades: 10
Total Profits/Loss: 4.20
Avg Ticks Per Trade: 4.2
Not up to my criteria of 10 ATPT but half the trades for same amount of average points. If I were to trade this method live I would begin Sept. 1. I strongly advise against intraday trading during the month of August. Whipsaws abound.
It was thru the scouring of message boards that lead me to ET.
The first post, I earned 290 ticks. The second day I earned 70 ticks and stopped trading it because of the discrepancy. It did not fit my later rule of average 10 ticks gross profit per trade. After thousands of hours of observation and thought, one develops an instinct of what is viable. Here's results for today's longer term strategy. Stop and reverse. 15 tick maximum stop loss. 3 losing trades consecutive and trading ends that day. Exit no later than 15:05
S 725.90 8:40
B 722.80 9:19 3.10
S 722.50 9:44 -.30
B 721.00 10:22 1.50
S 722.30 11:36 1.30
B 723.70 11:50 -1.40
S 723.70 12:56 0
B 725.00 13:35 -1.30
S 725.30 14:06 .30
B 724.20 14:47 1.10
S 724.10 15:04 -.10
Total trades: 10
Total Profits/Loss: 4.20
Avg Ticks Per Trade: 4.2
Not up to my criteria of 10 ATPT but half the trades for same amount of average points. If I were to trade this method live I would begin Sept. 1. I strongly advise against intraday trading during the month of August. Whipsaws abound.
I specifically said August. August is one of the least decisive intraday trading months. usually flat overall.
To each their own. I may follow the markets in August, but I won't trade it. I like the idea of having a 4 week vacation.
Jesse Livermore observed over 100 years ago that August is the least tradable month of the year. He always took the first 3 weeks of August off. Things haven't changed much since. People take their last minute vacations in August.
I started with ES. I only trade ER. Other markets may fare well during the summer, crude, maybe? The market I trade does not.
Implicit learning perculates when one is not near the screen. Ideas and facts tucked in the deep recesses of the brain come to fruitation when one is relaxed and not thinking of anything in particular. Vacations are ideal for those discoveries.
To each their own. I may follow the markets in August, but I won't trade it. I like the idea of having a 4 week vacation.
Jesse Livermore observed over 100 years ago that August is the least tradable month of the year. He always took the first 3 weeks of August off. Things haven't changed much since. People take their last minute vacations in August.
I started with ES. I only trade ER. Other markets may fare well during the summer, crude, maybe? The market I trade does not.
Implicit learning perculates when one is not near the screen. Ideas and facts tucked in the deep recesses of the brain come to fruitation when one is relaxed and not thinking of anything in particular. Vacations are ideal for those discoveries.
Interesting. I am looking at seasonality in the Forex markets. I need to do some work on this.
Time to get Excel fired up!
Time to get Excel fired up!
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