Market Code Crack'd?

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Quote from floortradr542:



You want a big pond with no sharks. Too many sharks lurking in ES waters.
More...

There are also sharks playing in ER2 waters...

ER2 might have 2x the range and 2x the volatilty, but it also moves at
2x the speed of ES.

So you have to make your decisions at 2x speed.

And your slippage can be 2x of ES also... if you use mkt orders...

ER2 is not for rookies... (not saying you are a rookie btw)...
 
I'll stick with my opening range play until I have 10 losses in a row. Wife is icy today because her monthly "friend" made the usual visit. I want volitility in my markets, not my personal relationships.

I am tweaking the methodology to catch my 10 tick per trade criteria. NOTE: This is back-tested. These trades are posted from the benefit of hindsight. The times might be a little off.

This is for today's action. All trades are posted until 10:00 C.S.T. Then I got lazy:

S 686.30 8:30
B 684.00 8:33 2.30

B 684.40 8:35
S 687.20 8:38 2.80

B 688.10 8:38
S 694.60 8:46 6.50

B 695.80 8:51
S 697.30 8:54 1.50

S 694.20 9:01
B 692.90 9:05 1.30

S 692.50 9:05
B 693.20 9:07 -.70

S 692.60 9:07
B 692.60.9:09 0

S 692.60 9:11
B 690.70 9:16 1.90

S 690.20 9:17
B 687.10 9:23 3.10

S 686.70 9:24
B 687.30 9:24 -.60

B 690.40 9:33
S 689.30 9:34 -.90

S 688.70 9:37
B 687.70 9:41 1.00

S 686.70 9:43
B 686.00 9:44 .70

S 684.00 10:00
B 683.80 10:02 .20



Total Ticks: 191
Total Trades: 14

191 / 14 = 13.64 TPT

So far fits the maximum velocity criteria. But we're dealing with probabilities. The trade at 8:38 was an anomoly. You may catch trades like that once or twice a month. Still, I didn't check the whole day. Tomorrow if wifey permits, I'll (paper) trade this real-time. Looks promising. Then again, so did the beginning of this thread.
 
Quote from floortradr542:

I'll stick with my opening range play until I have 10 losses in a row. Wife is icy today because her monthly "friend" made the usual visit. I want volitility in my markets, not my personal relationships.

Tomorrow if wifey permits, I'll (paper) trade this real-time. Looks promising. Then again, so did the beginning of this thread.
More...

Run, don't walk to the phone and get your wife an appointment
for a Depo Provera shot. Saves you the montly horror trip. If she
is skinny, it will put some meat on her bones. If she is not, put a
lock on the fridge. The bitchiness comes out in little bursts during
the month instead of all in one week. Kind of like she is pregnant 24/7.

And keep up the thread. We need intraday entertainment...:D

Oh, and if you have a daughter, wait until SHE gets the monthly friend...

Oh the horrors of it all...:(
 
You guys are ridiculous!:D :D :D

I sincerely wish you luck on the "personal relationship" issues floortrader, i had to let mine (girlfriend) go, she just really didn't get it.

That's OK, after we broke-up, my trading improved by triple!!! :) :D :p

See you (after the open, I don't believe in posting & trading either).

Best,

Jimmy
 
if this has not been realtime, caution as it is probably a dream that won't come true until you crash and rebuild you emotions........only realtime counts.....hope i am wrong.....
 
i can tell you there is nothing cracked .......but you are not far off common sense approach with your methodology.......it is simple....just as you said.......i hope u make the millions, but first make the pennies.......if you already have, forgive the intrusion.....no offense intended.........
 
No offense taken, Porgie. Intelligent, thoughtful comments are always welcome.

I got hammered hard. Lost a couple of days gains just this morning. The market decided to turn the tables twice just I entered.

B 677.70 8:23
R 676.50 8:31 -.80

B 678.60 8:34 -2.10


Wifey's bitchiness tide has ebbed for now, so I was able to paper trade an abridged version of the methodology.

There is a hedge fund whose proprietor hires nothing but science and math PhDs, trades very frequently (read: scalps) during the day and whose salary alone was something like $500 million last year. What is this guy's business model?? Sounds like he puts ol' Stevie C out to pature.

I trade on a (single) 4-year-old desktop computer. I bring to the table the dinky TradeStation platform, customized indicators and 3 years of battle scars. How are we to compete with that?

Trading the abridged methodology, I realized the best way for us little guys to maximize returns is to minimize exposure. It is best to be nimble; Get in, Get out. Than to be a behemoth with poor retail execution. Forget trading all day. I was considering trading the first hour open but even that may be too much. First 30 minutes tops. The market has built up pressure all night and when the opening bell dings, the result is a release of pressure and sudden, violent moves. Today I got caught on the wrong side twice. What's a pro surfer without a couple of gnarly wipeouts.


Paper Trades:

B 676.70 8:31
S 681.10 8:35 4.30

B 681.60 8:36
S 681.20 8:38 -.40

B 682.00 8:38
S 682.00 8:39 0

S 680.30 8:46
R 680.60 8:50 -.30

S 681.30 8:51 .70

B 681.80 8:52
S 683.40 8:54 1.60

B 683.60 9:04
S 684.90 9:07 1.30

S 684.50 9:11 (ha!)
B 684.80 9:12 -.30

S 684.00 9:15
B 684.20 9:15 -.20

B 685.20 9:22
S 684.90 9:23 -.30

S 683.70 9:23
B 684.50 9:24 -.80

S 683.40 9:24
B 682.20 9:30 1.20


Total Ticks: 57
Total Trades: 13

57 / 13 = 4.3 TPT



The results have been less than stellar. Definately does not live up to my standard of 10 ticks average per trade. This abridged version does seem to keep me in my opening trades longer AND alerts me to the true dominant trend before the open instead of having to reverse.

10 losing days in a row is my rule for abandoning a method. Unless it is glaringly obvious it will not work ever. Still, I'm keeping my eye on this baby! I will retract to my origional premise: 20 to 50 ticks is all you really need.
 
Having a bitch-y wife is good training for the markets. Teaches one how to deal with (un)predictible mood swings.

Paper trading the abridged method, I decided that from 10:30 to 1:30 CST I will still take signals, but instead of trailing profits, it will be a 1:1 trade. 10 ticks profit goal. 10 ticks stop.

Miss ER is explosive during the morning and extremely undecisive during midday. Am I willing to take the additional risk? Methinks if I have at least a 20 tick profit cushion before 9:30, it may be worth the risk.
 
I will no longer be posting trades. What's the point? If I do well it is like rubbing it in. If not, it is like a public flogging. Either way, trading should be a private endeavor.

Yesterday was a heck of a ride, wasn't it? I got creamed yesterday in the morning. The market was indecisive after that huge run-up Thursday and continued throughout the day. It was like trading the noon session the entire day.

It was a great day for system development. When I first started this thread, I proclaimed I might have unearthed the trader's holy grail. Something about the method made me uneasy but I couldn't figure out what. Yesterday's action gave me the answers.

ANY method will work in a trending session. It is the NON-trending sessions that will tell you if your methodology is viable. You want it it be relatively self-adjusting. Scalp for ticks in an undecisive market, trail the profits in a trending one. My earlier method has great signals, but lacked versitility. I was focusing on too small a fractal. I brought up the microscope focus a bit to see the bigger picture. A back-tested look tells me the new adjustment would've been profitable yesterday.

Danger: you do not want to constantly tinker with your method. Losses in trading are inevitible. I have settled on the methodology. It is now a matter of choosing the cycles that I am 100% comfortable with.
 
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