Market Celebrating "Worse Than Expected" Jobless Claims

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

A week ago the market flinched on every virus report, good and bad.

Now it appears the virus has taken a back seat to stimulus.

A worse than expected jobless claims number = MORE STIMULUS... YEA!!!!!

Nothing the market likes more than stimulus (buybacks, too).

Maybe good for a bounce back to Dow 25K... then perhaps reality sets in.
 
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What the market hates more than anything is uncertainty. With the Jobs report they now have some sense of how bad the worst will be, at least economically, so they can start trading again.
 
Scataphagos said:
A week ago the market flinched on every virus report, good and bad.

Now it appears the virus has taken a back seat to stimulus.

A worse than expected jobless claims number = MORE STIMULUS... YEA!!!!!

Nothing the market likes more than stimulus (buybacks, too).

Maybe good for a bounce back to Dow 25K... then perhaps reality sets in.
More...

Tuesday's orderly ramp higher after the overnight limit up had a very different feel than the other "pump n dump" episodes over the past month. I'm also cynical enough to realize that the "job of the equity markets" is to crash enough to panic the central banks into forking it all over. Once it got what it wanted, it seems to me that the shock and awe phase was possibly complete.

(btw, check out the completed pattern on Russell 2000 and NY Composite. Since Tuesday, Russell has been a bigger tell that it's in ramp mode again.)
 
We had 1300 point loss in s&p ...we get a rally and everything in the headlines is associated with the move....no one is going all in at this point , stimulus might be considered good news to some but it's a start reality if you have any sense of economics....I can only hope we don't go another 35% down but what's the catalyst for buying risky stocks after a 10 year unprecedented bull run... Hoarding cash and waiting until clear sky's is what people are doing not loading up on risky assets.... A hard rally on a historic sell off is expected... Prepare for more downside when people run out of ways to interpret shitty news as good news
 
cdcaveman said:
We had 1300 point loss in s&p ...we get a rally and everything in the headlines is associated with the move....no one is going all in at this point , stimulus might be considered good news to some but it's a start reality if you have any sense of economics....I can only hope we don't go another 35% down but what's the catalyst for buying risky stocks after a 10 year unprecedented bull run... Hoarding cash and waiting until clear sky's is what people are doing not loading up on risky assets.... A hard rally on a historic sell off is expected... Prepare for more downside when people run out of ways to interpret shitty news as good news
More...

Here's a thought - buy gold and short SPY as a hedge. If the economy does actually come back quickly, you're going to see rampant inflation (i.e. - gold goes up). Since Fed has backstopped liquidity, I don't see gold going down like it did in March again, so if SPY goes down, gold should remain stable.
 
Since when on earth was the market in linear behavior with expectations?
 
DaveV said:
What the market hates more than anything is uncertainty. With the Jobs report they now have some sense of how bad the worst will be, at least economically, so they can start trading again.
More...

Yep, having no number at all is far worse than having a bad number.
 
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