Market Calls

Quote from TrendyMohawk:

Thanks for the pos words Cluseau. We'll see if it works out. You got any short ideas? I'm inclined to short sub- prime lenders on a bounce.
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You got it. WMI is worthy of mention here.

Shorts?
-There's play in Wednesday's housing data.
-AIG options were pretty active so you may want to pull up a few series and poke around to find some juice.
-I have been keeping to indexes and ETF's, we don't want to get married into any management risk positions, at least, not now.
-It's tough to get excited about shorting after we just brought the market down. The cat is out of the bag. If anything, we can key in on a few select names but more or less employ a sideways strategy and try to pick up some bookings while we sort information and build possible directional positions. This is where i stand but am flexible.


-The bill comes monday morning and i don't see anyone grabbing for the check so we should anticipate testing key levels in EUR/USD and treasury benchmarks.

I'll post back if i see anything of interest but mostly i'll be buying and/or selling SPY, DIA, IWM, XLE, XLF, and a handful of others. Might as well use the expected increase in activity to our advantage. Let's just say, as Rearden Metal mentioned above, i don't want to tie up margin on a two legged horse when there will be stallions. :D

We will coin this week. Good trading to all.:D

EDIT:

1) Cost of living: "$20K per month"
2) Cost to grease the pan: "More than it should cost"
3) Cost of fear of committment in trading: "Priceless"

Can you tell i'm not leaning on anything as of yet? :D
 
Quote from Cluseau:

Thank you for the explanation. First, when you hunt for juicy premiums, short exp., and sizable move in the underlying how do you determine which is best of breed among the bunch and based on what order of criteria? Second, do you have access to an option screener and does a good one exist?

Hopefully, the underlying will stick in this price range but i'd like to know in general terms how you would fix this setup if we get deeper prices. I appreciate you taking the time to comment on this topic.
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This will sound primitive, but I prefer to hunt for trades manually: based on news reports, earnings calendars, and gut feel.

However, I do know that the http://www.ivolatility.com screener is very well liked.
 
I really enjoyed floatanalysis.com when it was free and the market was bullish. FORD, GIGA, GEOI were all chronicled.

Do you guys have any good links on this bankruptcy change? Perhaps the rule change might be bad for earnings short term but better for earnings long term. Merry Christmas
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

This will sound primitive, but I prefer to hunt for trades manually: based on news reports, earnings calendars, and gut feel.

However, I do know that the http://www.ivolatility.com screener is very well liked.
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Thanks. Did you manage to step out of MO before 10am? I may get in there in an hour or so especially if we can tag $74.73. Otherwise, i plan to stand back and see where MO sits. There's definitely juice in the calls now and less than 5 to expire.

EDIT: I'm leaning on MON but nothing to write home about.FYI
 
Quote from Cluseau:

Thanks. Did you manage to step out of MO before 10am? I may get in there in an hour or so especially if we can tag $74.73. Otherwise, i plan to stand back and see where MO sits. There's definitely juice in the calls now and less than 5 to expire.

EDIT: I'm leaning on MON but nothing to write home about.FYI
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Well, that didn't work out too well, did it? :D

I lost $2,500,000 in five minutes once (almost 5 years ago), so this 60-lot short straddle isn't exactly keeping me up at night. (My insomnia does that all by itself).

Have not covered any yet, but that will come eventually...
 
Completely out now (MO trade), lost only 1200 bucks in the end.

Since I'm up big on the IMCL+ ABGX short, I covered a little of it just now. Still keeping most on.
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

Well, that didn't work out too well, did it? :D

I lost $2,500,000 in five minutes once (almost 5 years ago), so this 60-lot short straddle isn't exactly keeping me up at night. (My insomnia does that all by itself).

Have not covered any yet, but that will come eventually...
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Sht happens. We recover. Our job.

I really thought you would take the exit before 10 yest. I hate to think you did this to yourself but imagine you are a big boy and can handle it. Either way maybe when you have time you can explain why you chose the neutral volatility play considering all the conditions. What were you thinking, back then? This is my interest. Thanks Rearden.
 
Quote from Cluseau:

Sht happens. We recover. Our job.

I really thought you would take the exit before 10 yest. I hate to think you did this to yourself but imagine you are a big boy and can handle it. Either way maybe when you have time you can explain why you chose the neutral volatility play considering all the conditions. What were you thinking, back then? This is my interest. Thanks Rearden.
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A 4 buck move just 'didn't fit'. (So I thought) Even with the big surprise move occuring, I was able to get out near breakeven. Risk/Reward...that sort of play usually works. I look at the daily charts, and have a gut feel as to if a big move away from the strike is likely or not...
 
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