Market bottom is in- End this doom and gloom

[mgabriel01]

Quote from mokwit:

In the timeframe you are talking about I wouldn't argue with that. There are market supply demand dynamics that virtually ensure a snapback. Beyond the day timeframe if you watch the news flow it is clear it it moves from "end of world nigh" (buy) to "we are saved" (short) and back again. However beyond the day timeframe we have had people saying "everyone is negative on ET so it is time to buy" all the way down.

my data suggests that money could have been made on a particular setup either long or short

the short play had a few more winners with smaller nets over the past 28 trading days

the long play had a few less winner but with larger nets

so I have been taking the shorts ---

This of course excludes the perios 2-4pm today - -when the tracking the data just dont help too much

 

[Champion]

Quote from mokwit:

In the timeframe you are talking about I wouldn't argue with that. There are market supply demand dynamics that virtually ensure a snapback. Beyond the day timeframe if you watch the news flow it is clear it it moves from "end of world nigh" (buy) to "we are saved" (short) and back again. However beyond the day timeframe we have had people saying "everyone is negative on ET so it is time to buy" all the way down.

Yes, there is value in what you say.The whole news flow thing is shallow and it will never make you market savvy. Likewise the perma-bears and perma-bulls make tedious reading.This sort of 'noise' doesn't enter into smart trading.

The markets, certainly for daytrading, are technical.It requires a neutral mindset and an accurate methodology.Once there (and it may take some doing), it is then just a daily money collection process.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from mgabriel01:

my data suggests that money could have been made on a particular setup either long or short

the short play had a few more winners with smaller nets over the past 28 trading days

the long play had a few less winner but with larger nets

so I have been taking the shorts ---

This of course excludes the perios 2-4pm today - -when the tracking the data just dont help too much

SPX is still in a trading range 1270 -1400 and it has yet to break out one side to be called a BEAR or BULL MARKT. We may rally up to 1400 or some than head down if SPX does not break the resistances above. There would be a vicious kind of sell off stocks cratering 5-8 points on a given day.

There is definitely a bottom here placed today which SPX failed to take out...something solid and hard to breach.

 

[mokwit]

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:


There is definitely a bottom here placed today which SPX failed to take out...something solid and hard to breach.

Fed curtting 75BP might have been a factor in that, as it was last time. Naturally capped on the upside, artificially supported on the downside.

 

[MKTrader]

Not to mention the cutting cycle that started in Jan. 2001 and took over 2 years to end the last bear market. At the worst point (interest rate approaching 1.0), the permabears declared it was all over for the Fed..."no bullets left!". Then we had 5 consecutive + years for stocks with everything but the Nasdaq hitting new highs. (Don't forget the Nasdaq averaged like 100% a year at the end of the 90s. No wonder it's still catching up.)

You don't need to be a permabull (I'm not), but don't fall into the "bear trap."

Quote from Landis82:

And what a lot of the younger "kids" that frequent ET fail to realize ( like the PPT and Conspiracy advocates like "s2007s" and his crowd ) is that back in the 1982 time period the FED eased dramatically for 11 STRAIGHT MONTHS before their actions took hold.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Range bound trader's market for who knows how long, with vicious volatility and absolutely nasty whipsaws.

If you're one of the truly few, that rarest of species, that can consistently trade intraday profitably, lucky you - Nirvana awaits w/all the fortunes that it entails.

For investors, swing traders and others, we'll have to take a measured approach if we want to abide by rule number one: Protect you ASSets.

 

[The Swordsman]

hey, didn't you use to be "day7793"? why did you change your name? and how?

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

SPX is still in a trading range 1270 -1400 and it has yet to break out one side to be called a BEAR or BULL MARKT. We may rally up to 1400 or some than head down if SPX does not break the resistances above. There would be a vicious kind of sell off stocks cratering 5-8 points on a given day.

There is definitely a bottom here placed today which SPX failed to take out...something solid and hard to breach.

 

[PohPoh]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

I stand by that comment. The bull market which began in october 2002 will last for decades.

haha..we are in a bear market right now...these are called bear market rallies...they are designed to make idiot permabull morons like you feel good...while smart money sells into them...
This is just like the 'selloffs' that we saw in the nominal bull market that ran from 2002-2007...that is over...the US equity market is toast...

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from PohPoh:

haha..we are in a bear market right now...these are called bear market rallies...they are designed to make idiot permabull morons like you feel good...while smart money sells into them...
This is just like the 'selloffs' that we saw in the nominal bull market that ran from 2002-2007...that is over...the US equity market is toast...

YOU can wish all you want, but empirical data shows S&P is going to 1400 and beyond...Bunch of dirt eating clowns couldn't drag it below 1270... Is that the best you can do?

Don't you realize you are a bunch of potted Palms flapping in the winds when it comes to facing off with the mighty Feds ?

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

YOU can wish all you want, but empirical data shows S&P is going to 1400 and beyond...Bunch of dirt eating clowns couldn't drag it below 1270... Is that the best you can do?

Don't you realize you are a bunch of potted Palms flapping in the winds when it comes to facing off with the mighty Feds ?

Empirical data shows it going to 1400 and beyond? Oh really?

LMAO! You are absolutely and truly comical.

Think about this - Goldman was up $25 today, as it reported profits that shrank 53% from a year ago quarter.

Their business will continue to shrink, now that investment banking, consulting, selling CDOs and underwriting IPOs are all dwindling aspects of their revenue flow.

What will take up the slack?

The U.S. economy is on the edge of recession, if not there yet, and the consumer is slowing as evidenced by rising credit delinquencies.

Manufacturing is slowing dramatically, and inflation is sizzling. Housing is still in free fall in many parts of the country. The U.S. dollar doesn't buy nearly what it used to, either.

Job growth is also anemic, when there's any job growth at all. Government deficit spending is way beyond out of control. And our trade imbalance is laughable and unsustainable.

None of the above is fiction. It's reality.

Are there positives? Sure. Some. U.S. exports have gotten cheaper.

All the fed rate cuts and 'liquidity injections' in the world can't alter economic fundamentals.

Without the rocket fuel of the housing boom we had from 2002 onward, no catalyst can prop up a weak consumer.

The changes underlying the economy today are real, are mostly adverse, and the rally today was more a gasp of hope and optimism and denial than anything else.

It was also a lot of short covering.

Cheers.