market behavior in a recession/leading up to
- Thread starter krazykarl
- Start date
I'm getting old and I don't know if I'm getting wiser. Prior to a bear market you will see a rotation into health services, drugs, hospitals, drug stores, mortgage investments(for yield), food products, aerospace, utilities, tabacco, and gaming stocks. In effect, kind of what we have been witnessing over the last month or so.
If it is an inflationary period bond yields will continue to rise. If it is not yields will fall and the bond market will be the place to be.
If it is an inflationary period bond yields will continue to rise. If it is not yields will fall and the bond market will be the place to be.
That was funny. Lol.
An inverted yield curve does not necessarily point to recession (although it has had ~80% success). Obviously, there are many other factors (credit spreads, banctruptcies etc), that even when put together cannot forecast a recession 100%.
Incidentally, there are several countries that have been in standard yield curve inversion (UK for example), but not in recession.
An inverted yield curve does not necessarily point to recession (although it has had ~80% success). Obviously, there are many other factors (credit spreads, banctruptcies etc), that even when put together cannot forecast a recession 100%.
Incidentally, there are several countries that have been in standard yield curve inversion (UK for example), but not in recession.
Quote from krazykarl:
that was all over cnbc a few months back -
the rumor on the street is that economists have also predicted 16 of the last 4 recessions.....
(i stole that one!)
yeild curve is a bunch of BS doesn't mean anything when it comes to predicting stocks. If you could use yield curves to predict the markets I would have already heard about it (as wll as millions of others) and made a fortune.
