Market and quantum effect...

Quote from CalTrader:

Things were fun when I had the time to do research. However things are better today since I control my own financial destiny.


Agree. That is why I am an option seller trading with my own capital now.


:p :p :p
:D :D :D
 
OK.

nitro
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:




The article on Reflexivity I posted is not really a good descriptor of the theory & thus would caution you not to reach a conclusion (i.e. "I don't know much ... but from reading the article ...") based solely on it. Thus my entreaty to "do your own reading."

In any event, some time ago I did read a bit about Reflexivity and am generally familiar with the concept of wave/particle duality or the Shrodinger's Cat phenomenon in which the act of observation affects that being observed. It struck me as something of a cut-and-paste job on Soro's part. That he named his fund the Quantum Fund made it all too obvious.

For a better online reference take a look at:
http://www.soros.org/textfiles/speeches/042694_Theory_of_Reflexivity.txt
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:



In any event, some time ago I did read a bit about Reflexivity and am generally familiar with the concept of wave/particle duality or the Shrodinger's Cat phenomenon in which the act of observation affects that being observed.

That's not what the Schroedinger's Cat phenomenon is about. It's about the superposition principle leading to weird results: the cat can be both dead and alive at the same time, classically and realistically impossible. Well, anyway, from what I know, Soros does not seem to know quantum theory any better than you, so don't despair.
 
You guys are freaking me out, I have a cat, he's weird, his name is Quantum and sometimes I think he's dead when he's still alive. I've been doing this all wrong!

P.S. I think I'm bored today
 
And everyone and particularly BlueHorseshoe should read a book from two physicians called :

"Fashionable Nonsense: Postmodern Intellectuals' Abuse of Science"

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...002-4857738-8584001?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

(I have the french version only if not so I would be able to quote you some extracts that would ridiculise some amazing non sense here).

It will avoid you to mix concepts like reflexivity - which concerns macroscopic world and chaos theory - and quantum physics - which concerns microscopic scale - with socioeconomics - which concerns human activities - by making abusive generalisation. It is very funny to see that I have something that is a concrete model with numeric results I have presented and that in front of that I have bla bla bla from people like him that discuss generalities and non sense haha !

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Everyone can do their own reading on Soro's Reflexivity but what he describes is a Quantum Schrodinger's Cat phenomenon in financial markets. Soro's tries to make Reflexivity his own but what he's really done is cut and paste the law of Schrodinger's Cat and applied it to financial markets. Note he did found the Quantum Fund ...
 
You're right I have read his book about that - very interesting indeed but it is qualitative and it has nothing to do with Quantum Physics - although the name of his fund is Quantum - it has to do with non linear dynamics and it is rather a metaphore in his head - since he is not a mathematician. - than a reference to chaos theory per se, in fact he doesn't even seem to refer to scientific theory in his book.

Quote from nitro:


I do not know much about Soros reflexivity, but from reading the article, it is not the _spitit_ of the "cat" thought experiment from QM that he is using as a metaphor, but the effects of a recursive feedbacks onto the system, the key idea being that the effect of viewing/trading a system affects the market itself and it's expectations and the effects are symmetric in the direction of time. In a way, the markets are a time machine, where the "conservation" laws are preserving some strange vector or matrix that represents the yields between issues...

nitro
 
As I said when the precision is relatively bad near 4 points the theorical value is suspected to constitute a breaking zone later. For today there was a theorical value at 9612 the real value was 9615.65 so the error of 3.64 rounded would give 4 : this is relatively bad (standard error is rather 2) and after it has been broken towards next target (which was 9595.71 in theory in real it made 9595.35).

P.S.: the picture below was in fact for illustrating the Feynman like effect see http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21973&perpage=6&pagenumber=6

<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=346312>


Quote from harrytrader:

all the successive Higher High (HH) were around the theorical points most of them within 2 points except for the 4th HH one where the error is 4 points - which is frequent when the theorical value constitutes later a great break zone.

<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=342007>
 
Quote from harrytrader:

As I said when the precision is relatively bad near 4 points the theorical value is suspected to constitute a breaking zone later. For today there was a theorical value at 9612 the real value was 9615.65 so the error of 3.64 rounded would give 4 : this is relatively bad (standard error is rather 2) and after it has been broken towards next target (which was 9595.71 in theory in real it made 9595.35).

P.S.: the picture below was in fact for illustrating the Feynman like effect see http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21973&perpage=6&pagenumber=6

<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=346312>

No on can be this accurate one day early.

Your projection model of 7/10/03 predicted for 8/10/03 mkt in the intraday. This is snake oil Harry, or you will be the richest man in the world.

:)
 
Every night I take a paint tube and I draw these charts : I am a great artist :p. BTW can you give a function to do that because I'm a bit lazy to do it by hand every day :D

Quote from manz66:

No on can be this accurate one day early.

Your projection model of 7/10/03 predicted for 8/10/03 mkt in the intraday. This is snake oil Harry, or you will be the richest man in the world.

:)
 
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