Quote from BlueHorseshoe:
The article on Reflexivity I posted is not really a good descriptor of the theory & thus would caution you not to reach a conclusion (i.e. "I don't know much ... but from reading the article ...") based solely on it. Thus my entreaty to "do your own reading."
In any event, some time ago I did read a bit about Reflexivity and am generally familiar with the concept of wave/particle duality or the Shrodinger's Cat phenomenon in which the act of observation affects that being observed. It struck me as something of a cut-and-paste job on Soro's part. That he named his fund the Quantum Fund made it all too obvious.
For a better online reference take a look at:
http://www.soros.org/textfiles/speeches/042694_Theory_of_Reflexivity.txt
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:
In any event, some time ago I did read a bit about Reflexivity and am generally familiar with the concept of wave/particle duality or the Shrodinger's Cat phenomenon in which the act of observation affects that being observed.
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:
Everyone can do their own reading on Soro's Reflexivity but what he describes is a Quantum Schrodinger's Cat phenomenon in financial markets. Soro's tries to make Reflexivity his own but what he's really done is cut and paste the law of Schrodinger's Cat and applied it to financial markets. Note he did found the Quantum Fund ...
Quote from nitro:
I do not know much about Soros reflexivity, but from reading the article, it is not the _spitit_ of the "cat" thought experiment from QM that he is using as a metaphor, but the effects of a recursive feedbacks onto the system, the key idea being that the effect of viewing/trading a system affects the market itself and it's expectations and the effects are symmetric in the direction of time. In a way, the markets are a time machine, where the "conservation" laws are preserving some strange vector or matrix that represents the yields between issues...
nitro
Quote from harrytrader:
all the successive Higher High (HH) were around the theorical points most of them within 2 points except for the 4th HH one where the error is 4 points - which is frequent when the theorical value constitutes later a great break zone.
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Quote from harrytrader:
As I said when the precision is relatively bad near 4 points the theorical value is suspected to constitute a breaking zone later. For today there was a theorical value at 9612 the real value was 9615.65 so the error of 3.64 rounded would give 4 : this is relatively bad (standard error is rather 2) and after it has been broken towards next target (which was 9595.71 in theory in real it made 9595.35).
P.S.: the picture below was in fact for illustrating the Feynman like effect see http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21973&perpage=6&pagenumber=6
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. BTW can you give a function to do that because I'm a bit lazy to do it by hand every day 
Quote from manz66:
No on can be this accurate one day early.
Your projection model of 7/10/03 predicted for 8/10/03 mkt in the intraday. This is snake oil Harry, or you will be the richest man in the world.
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