Market and quantum effect...

[TSOKAKIS]

Quote from harrytrader:

In 1900 Planck inadvertendly discovered the so called Planck constant h: chocking horror for him since he was an advocate for continuity and infinity ! So nature is discrete or "quantumic".
What about stock market ? Since a picture is worth a thousand words let's look at today's session for example. But to see this quantum effect one must remember the central concept for my model about the crossing of the two lines (extracted from http://www.econometric-wave.com):

"A minimum or a maximum on projection line (interpreted as target line in green color) and their dual(*) on base line (interpreted as consolidation line in blue color) are important turning points for the market for that scale and under. By rule extension points around <B><FONT COLOR=BLUE>the crossing of the two lines are also important turning points</FONT></B>. "

Today the crossing was at 9464 (see "cross-pattern" label on the picture) but it prefers to make a high near the point value near the next blue point theorical value of 9473.81 (real top 9472.69).

Not only the super top of the day was made near the theorical point but in fact all the successive Higher High (HH) were around the theorical points most of them within 2 points except for the 4th HH one where the error is 4 points - which is frequent when the theorical value constitutes later a great break zone.

<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=342007>

Looking at the [handmade ?] arrows of your chart, FYI, they may be drawn automatically.
From Peak to Peak/Trough to Trough with calibrated zig sensitivity.

 

[harrytrader]

pcquote chart has created the zigzag in orange automatically, as for the arrows yes they are "handmade" : perhaps it is freudian because I wanted to do crafting art when I was young . More seriously in general I like to do things by hand because I allows me to feel it better. It is only when I need to do it systematically that I automate but here it is just for once to show it.

Quote from TSOKAKIS:



Looking at the [handmade ?] arrows of your chart, FYI, they may be drawn automatically.
From Peak to Peak/Trough to Trough with calibrated zig sensitivity.

 

[TSOKAKIS]

Quote from harrytrader:

pcquote chart has created the zigzag in orange automatically, as for the arrows yes they are "handmade" : perhaps it is freudian because I wanted to do crafting art when I was young . More seriously in general I like to do things by hand because I allows me to feel it better. It is only when I need to do it systematically that I automate but here it is just for once to show it.

Automatic lines gives you the objective side of the reality. Many times I was totally blind to see a descending channel ready to breakout.
Anyway, if you need the related coding to link PeakToPeak/TroughToTrough, it is already prepared [before the attached gif]
It is a bit peculiar to speak for QM "T/A applications" and draw [like Mr Plank] arrows by hand !!
Of course, it is a matter of taste [although taste and waste sound similar sometimes...]

 

[hypostomus]

...thank you for your comprehensible reply. FYI, my full given name is Hypostomus Plecostomus. Does that mean anything? I always thought that was a peculiar name to give a child, especially when the family name was Smith. Having done my duty to facilitate Harry's "exquisite corpse" word salad, I shall now retire to the depths, where the morsels that sink to the bottom are tastier than those which floated to the top here.

 

[TSOKAKIS]

Quote from hypostomus:

...thank you for your comprehensible reply. FYI, my full given name is Hypostomus Plecostomus. Does that mean anything? I always thought that was a peculiar name to give a child, especially when the family name was Smith. Having done my duty to facilitate Harry's "exquisite corpse" word salad, I shall now retire to the depths, where the morsels that sink to the bottom are tastier than those which floated to the top here.

Both words have greek origin.
Both words are artificial, not used in common language.
They would probably describe a fish [hypo==below, stomus from stoma==mouth] profile or a horse tying.
Better ask the godfather !!

 

[hypostomus]

...is it OK to clog thread which already needs a plunger? H.P. is a catfish like bottom feeder. A favorite of aquarium owners because he eats the crap at the bottom of the tank.

 

[CalTrader]

Quote from hypostomus:

[B...I looked at your site and read many of your references, but I am unable to comprehand what you mean. Would you throw a little math at me? I can take it. I studied quantum theory back when I used to be smart ....[/B]

I taught quantum theory and I currently use- indirectly - portions of theory I developed: I dont understand the ramblings of "harry" - although to be honest I stopped reading after a few incomprehensible paragraphs ........

 

[m&m&m]

Quote from hypostomus:

... Would you throw a little math at me?

Though I have no idea what Harry is saying, I think some similarity between Quantum Theory and the Market are huge.
1. Waves. I think most of the people can realize that market is moving by waves just looking at the charts. And here goes some math. As you know, everything in fact is waves, as everything can be represented as a Furye series. These series, implemented to the market would give important information about waves it consists of, for example periods of time (or, if you wish, lengths of the waves) between some highs and lows in any time frame. It also could be possible that big highs/lows or breaks happen when most of the first waves equal in phase (which could be predicted in advance).
2. Quantum. I think most of the day traders should notice Quantum Effect. For example when 10.000 chunks of shares changing hands. I’m not a day trader, so, correct me if I’m wrong, but I suspect that during these trades market changes in value should be about the same. If it’s correct and even humans (through the tape) can fill it, then Planck constant (or we might call it M-constant – as a Market ) should be (Change in Market during 10.000 shares transaction) / 10.000
3. Predictability. As with electron movements nobody can predict where the market will be at any given time. The better strategy is – the better predictability would be but never 100%.

PS. I suspect Harry is trying to manually represent Market as a Furye Function.

 

[hypostomus]

...please take care not to post anything grammatical, intelligible, logical, or comprehensible here. Your posts will be better received if they sound like they were created using a random buzzword generator.

If Harry really wanted to convert the heathen, he would JUST ONCE make a fearless forecast, say, 5-10-15 trading days out.

Unambiguously, to the minute, to the tick, with a tight error band, no caveats. He can risk letting all us disbelievers make free money off of him ONCE, as a demonstration of his omniscience (Well, maybe I would want to see it twice. Would you mind walking out on the lake for me again?).

Is there any part of your quantum theory you can share? The parallels between boundary conditions and support/resistance are obvious. There is a parallel between standing waves and sideways moves, and evanescent waves and moves that peter out. There is a parallel between allowed transitions and settling out around round numbers (although I think that's closer to chaos theory). Finally there's a parallel between consolidations and tunneling.

The rational must speak, lest superstition prevail.

 

[hypostomus]

...interesting points you raise. With respect to Fourier series (the correct spelling, French is not your native language I presume), I deeply regret wasting a substantial part of my youth attempting to apply Fourier transforms to the markets. The universal result was that about three to five components would acceptably accurately model the recent past.

However, the projections into the future diverged from reality almost immediately. In retrospect I realized that I was stupid to do that, that I should have used Laplace transforms since we are dealing with a single-sided (presumably) causal system in time, but the tools there are not so easy and I was burnt out. I have a bud who is a whiz at wavelet transforms. He tried and failed to apply that, too. Not to discourage you. Have at it if you have the tools.

We have to take care with our analogies. If we're going to speculate on possible quantum behavior in the markets, we have to address the wave-particle duality. My suspicion is that price is the particle and the wave is bullshit psuedoscientific posts.

Re predictability, it has been proven over and over that the best math model for the markets is a first order Markov process, where the best predictor for the next bar is the value of the current bar, and all other predictors diverge. Very ancient result, occasionally useful, older than me.

Best regards. - Mike