Mark this... Market will go to all time high by the end April

This event was an externality--a black swan whose effects may not last as long as people (especially doomsayers) think. The market is always looking forward...and not just at a couple of bad quarters.

Also, if the market were easy to "understand," we'd all be billionaires.


I'd agree on the market looking forward, if not for the risk of many companies (large and small) going bankrupt soon, and people losing jobs and all their savings, and getting foreclosed. This could lower earnings for years. And I believe we'll see more of the bear market during the next couple quarters of earnings.
Though yes, not sure who understands much of this at this point. I'm not even predicting anything, just buying LEAP puts on any 2x-3x ETFs that are still around, whether bearish or bullish. They'll all get shaken down to $0. Only wishing I've gotten more of the SPXU & UVXY LEAP puts - I thought I'd have more time to accumulate them.
 
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Does anyone understand why or how the market is still going up at all?
Ok, Fed is buying bonds, but corp buybacks are over so who may be buying stocks, or how does the Fed QE convert to stocks going up? Or do retail traders still wield much power, etc?
And I’m pretty sure it’s not just Cramer that is confused by this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/cra...pper-confused-by-the-market-recent-rally.html

Forward looking on the eventual recovery in stock markets. Yesterday, there was a report that one pension fund bought $6B in equities late afternoon Monday. Legit chance that many IT firms will hardly be touched by this black swan beyond a few months. People on here have always underestimated the huge purchases by owners of mutual funds and etfs and associated management.

That being said, I'm not bullish on US indexes at this point. I have been heavily long TSX related equities since March 23 pm one of the best timed decisions in my life. I remain long term bullish on quality TSX listings but expect some downward pressures in May possibly sooner. I called a bottom at 11600-11700 and the actual bottom was 11200 for a day. For the SPX, my initial downside risk guess was 1900 area but now I believe 2230 is the bottom should hold rest of the year. Not saying we are going there it's just to delimit risk. I like mining and energy sectors in Canada short term more then general markets but in the US IT has been super strong might be reasons behind it the rest of us aren't privy too.

Of course, with any projections, they can be wrong. I did however do extremely well the last 2+ weeks fully invested in mostly Canadian equities ( some global energy exposure ).
 
If we go back to ATH before end of April, that's going to be pretty concerning. I'd be extremely impressed if they can manage that and keep inflation from going completely out of control within a year.
 
Green Day to the gulag if no new highs by end of April. Seems fair to me.

And if the S&P 500 isn't at a new yearly low by the end of April, the bears all go to the gas chamber? You realize you're just two sides of the same coin...
 
And if the S&P 500 isn't at a new yearly low by the end of April, the bears all go to the gas chamber? You realize you're just two sides of the same coin...

First off, it's a joke. Lighten up

Secondly, it's a response to the OP spamming this board twice a day to tell us how bullish he is and how many SPY calls he's bought.

FWIW, I've been slightly bullish past few weeks but I'm not on here to make sensationalized calls.
 
First off, it's a joke.

Secondly, it's a response to the OP spamming this board twice a day to tell us how bullish he is and how many SPY calls he's bought.

I thought it was pretty clear I was joking as well. And I've seen 100X more spammy posts and threads from the usual permabear suspects than bulls recently.
 
Hopefully safe, I enjoy reading your trading adventures. Have you noticed if real estate is slipping since your in to spec-homes? A friend who owns a good size truss company had lots of orders evaporate, that's in So California.

FJ started this morning at just 98.8 after going as high as 99.6 last night!
 
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