Quote from The Swordsman:You must have misunderstood, he said when we break 1220 on the ES we would THEN drop 200 pts and quickly. We opened down to that level this morning (via a gap down), hardly went any lower before rallying HUGE. He was incorrect. He tried an plays it off like we were down 180 on the dow but thats where we opened, not what happened AFTER 1220 was breached.
Well I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt on the 1220 breach, because technically that's a false signal.
Secondly, he SAID we'd drop 200 pts after 1220 was breached but said NOTHING of it being the dow so really it should be interpreted as 200 S&P points which is a ridiculous call for one days action.
That's the thing though, 200 ES points is so ridiculous it had to be YM points. The first time I read this prediction/reading/whatever of his I interpreted as such.
His other calls (besides today) were accurate but thats the game. The market makes you think you can do it all the time but alot of what happens from day to day CANNOT and WILL NOT be able to be predicted. I implore you and Simon to TRY it for a month and see how you do.
I don't predict squat unless it's about the next immediate direction, which is what we all do by taking positions (aka:trading).
As for him (and anyone else), I do give people a 85% average (which is TA), because even the best of them (Buffet, though he's not much of a "trader") can't have it all.
And again, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt (not worshipping him by any means), simply because we went south of the 1220 since pre-market and basically held there till the 10am economic whatever (which is basically "foreplay"). That and the fact that we only went there once and once only.
His "rally to the close" is more important to me than "close slightly below" which he did miss, and by more than a full percentage point, though 1% these days isn't worth the same (crazy-ass volatility).
And I give him points for his "news" which is other than reports/earnings/predictable (well predictable news yes, but I'm talking about timing) in the Goverment pimping LEH to BAC and whatnot.
All in all this is still interesting (minus the yoga, left nut, etc). Can he do it again? Dunno. Over and over? Don't know... and frankly, I, nor anyone, will/should be "believing/advocating" anyone unless they consistent for a timeperiod in the 6 months range (heck, people still believe that Buffet is more lucky than "predictive"...)
Overall, a surprising curiosity...