The funny thing is that he claims to have a process which includes the fundamentals lol.
Mark Minervini (Meltdown)
- Thread starter trader778
- Start date
What he look at is earnings and revenue growth, whether the stock is in a leading sector or industry and believe it or not the price chart. It doesn't matter what the company does it matters what the stock does.
He's been around for years, good enough to make the market wizards book and has won a couple US trading championships.
I think he lost his edge after the dot com bubble. It’s pretty clear as he went from being highly secretive about his strategy to writing multiple books. I’m very skeptical of people who sell “follow this approach to make millions”— I have looked at his criteria and can tell you that they don’t actually outperform. A high growth company has its growth priced in. You can take risk if you believe that the market is under/over expecting growth, but without that knowledge and your own estimate, you’re just groping blindly. Many people mistake luck in a bull market (especially if they own a few high beta names) with skill. He’s not the first. Nor the last.
The one thing he is doing that most vendors don't is trading a live account and publishing their results. Leading the US trading championship, trading his own money.
If high growth companies have growth priced in why are they continuing to grow? If you wanted to just invest in high growth wouldn't it make sense to buy stocks that are increasing in price? If all the news is priced in why do stock prices move when there is no news?
Stock picking is just part of the equation. Even if it's a coin flip (which I don't personally believe it is) portfolio management has to be taken into account.
When people say "high growth" they typically refer to either high sales growth or high EPS growth. The actual performance of buying high sales or high eps companies:
So it's not sufficient to trade "high growth" companies. The high growth is already priced in via the multiple.
You are using the S&P 500. This is a momentum index to start with.
How many companies are included in the top 20%? 100 ? What if you used the top 5%. Can you eliminate companies that trade below their 50ma?
What about newer companies that are in the mid and small cap groups.
Interesting. Is that using the top 5% and culling the losers?
yes -- top 5% of sales growth AND price > 50dma.
You can go down through his list of stuff, it is not robust and I'm surprised that people don't take a few minutes to verify his claims.
on the flipside, i have mentioned earnings revisions as a factor and you guys still hate me lol:
I don't hate you I just don't agree with your approach.
I'm not sure what the graph is showing. It looks like the screen is outperforming the index.