Mark Cook: 29% correction in March 2007

Quote from Alex_in_Oz:
This is just the beginning
More...
GREAT CALL MARK!!!

You too Alex. I'm with you. The Cook Cumulative
Tick Index just needs a little recalibration.

We'll just reschedule for March 2008.

Waiting for the crash with bated breath,


Emilio
 
Quote from Emilio_Lizardo:

GREAT CALL MARK!!!

You too Alex. I'm with you. The Cook Cumulative
Tick Index just needs a little recalibration.

We'll just reschedule for March 2008.

Waiting for the crash with bated breath,


Emilio
More...

LOL, looks like he needs to keep working at it.

JJ
 

Attachments

Quote from JimmyJam:

LOL, looks like he needs to keep working at it.

JJ
More...

Are you serious? Keep working at it? The guy's been trading over thirty years, has been daytrading the S&Ps for somewhere around 20 years, and is the only S&P index trader profiled in THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS.

The indicator is notorious for being early.
It is not really for daytraders as much as it is for longer-term traders. One can easily go long in the current bull market while watching for signs of weakness--one foot in, one foot out.

I do find it interesting that while the markets made new highs last week, the VIX did NOT make new lows. That suggests to me that many want to take advantage of the current momentum but are waiting to bail at the first sign of trouble.

Is Cook always right? No, of course not--none of us are. One must not blindly take anyone's advice; those who think for themselves are the ones with the best chances to succeed.

But I do like to hear what he has to say, because his is the voice of experience.
 
Quote from Allmighty1:

Now even more years later, there is a commercial service available that offers signals based on their interpretation of Cook's indicator.

.

A1
More...

So you make good money with it? It seems a little inaccurate..
 
Quote from Allmighty1:

This is typical of JJ. nothing of substance so you get his backbiting faggy little comments....followed by "lol"

Unlike that little twerp, Cook spent years documenting his cumulative tick. Now even more years later, there is a commercial service available that offers signals based on their interpretation of Cook's indicator.

For anyone interest in doing a little work, you can make a similar indicator using cues from Cook's last interview with Schwager. He talks about keeping track of hits above 400 at specific times of the day. Stop and think for moment (not you JJ, go back to sleep) what the tick actually means. It is a market breadth indicator that measures the difference between the number of NYSE companies trading on the uptick and the number trading on the downtick. As that number changes over time, keeping track of the trends (up or down) on a timescale longer than intraday might offer a way to anticipate market moves. Cook estimates that his indicator leads the market by at least a couple of weeks.

The interview is worth a read.

Also noticed this article by Chris Terry

http://www.lbrgroup.com/images/terry_april_2002_AT.pdf

A1
More...

Thanks Mr. Troll
 
Quote from Allmighty1:

Roberk;

I do make money with it. but not intraday.

You're sharp enough to figure this out. This indicator doesn't work on absolute numbers. What are we actually looking for here anyway? From my point of view as the trend of up or downticking companies changes over time, what you are really seeing is institutional participation. That is why in his interviews, Cook alludes the fact that he "acumulates" tick counts at specific times of the day, and then looks for trends where the tick is consistently positive or negative or a series of days and weeks.

By the way, there is another way to do this, and all it requires is that you monitor average volume over a specfic times frames. I will PM you and you can decide whether it is worth your time. It works for me, and the bonus is that I can use it intraday.

A1
More...

LOL, no one will PM him, so now he's seeking people out. Can you say pushy?

Lonely,

JJ
 
Personally I have no idea who Cook is but he shouldn't make predictions of 20 plus % drops based on a few tic readings. The flow of funds right now is from overseas that's what matters presently. The way this year shapes up with a big tech spending spree about to burst forth... it's going to be very tough to get a 20% drop in the market without an exterior (political/ military/financial) event triggering it- and that would not be reflected in any counting of up ticks.

Early indicators are like broken clocks- they're eventually right- but the problem is- boy cried wolf syndrome - by the time he's right- no one will be listening. ~ stoney
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

LOL, no one will PM him, so now he's seeking people out. Can you say pushy?

Lonely,

JJ
More...

LOL .... Now I can feel the love. Allmighty1, with this response ... I like you. Welcome to ET :)
 
A good correction is due, but doubtful to be on the scale of 2000. In 2000 the S&P was trading at over 30 times earnings and nearly two times sales. Today it's 1.2 times sales (a 40% discount) and roughly 17 times earnings. A drop of nearly 20% would put the S&P back into real "value" territory. The NYSE and other major indices corrected more than 10% several times over the last few years, even though they have come straight back up. So I guess my question is, What is a 10% drop in your definition? Do you have a minimum time period that the market must remain down to qualify?
By the way, the price level of the S&P is still lower than the highs reached on March of 2000. Does seven years to make a new high qualify?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top