Mark Brown and his Snowball Strategy
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A trading method does not have to be "backtestable" for it to be legit. Someone pointed out to me that a "highly cognitive method" such as the hershey method requires too many variables and slight changes in context that only the human mind can acct for in the heat of battle and in the quickest possible way. The only way to get to this point is repetition, drilling yourself day in and day out in all kinds of mkts. The more screen time and continued learning and application of what works is the key.
My former trading style, which was highly successful and documented here at ET was not backtested and probably couldnt be backtested because of how many variables there were. I actually sat down once and tried to write a code for it but stopped after a few hours as I realized I could not formulate exactly what I wanted because it was so complex. I am finding the hershey approach to be eerily similar in that regard.
My former trading style, which was highly successful and documented here at ET was not backtested and probably couldnt be backtested because of how many variables there were. I actually sat down once and tried to write a code for it but stopped after a few hours as I realized I could not formulate exactly what I wanted because it was so complex. I am finding the hershey approach to be eerily similar in that regard.
are you a undercover mod? cause all you talk about is the loss of income from me not paying to be a sponsor.
i have news for you et should be paying me to be posting here. if i wanted to get people to my web site i could send out an email the 10 million people who were visiting my sites to get oddball trades to the tune of a million hits a month - and tell them that i have started back posting real time live trades for free. i did this for well over 3 years live for free in REAL TIME.
so my point is i don't need to get people to my web site's, i don't need web sites anyway i have them lot's of them. i have them for many interest i have like cars and art and scientific theories even things to do with law and art's i guess i have about 30 web sites in all not just trading. trading has allowed me to waste my money on other things. you may call me a vendor - ok i am a vendor - but you know what read this about something i don't offer or have done in years in spite that i could at any time.
plus let me remind you toby crabel was a vendor i trade an account using his methods myself.
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so clearly he wasn't doing this for the money. I think he is at least partly motivated by a genuine desire to help fledgling traders. And with all the garbage for sale out there, and all the shysters in this business, it was a real privilege to have the opportunity to learn from a legitimate world class trader like Mark.
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In October I had the good fortune to be able to attend one of Mark Brown's "Shortcut to Discovery" workshops in Dallas. I had wanted to attend for some time...the price for the workshop that was listed on www.NAMEWITHELD.com was $5000. I was amazed to see one day that the price had been temporarily slashed to $500, so I jumped at the chance.
The workshop was set to begin at 08:30. The other attendees arrived -- there were only three of us - and I was happy to have the chance to meet one of the other attendees who was a person I've only previously corresponded with by e-mail. Mark and his son Alan arrived at 8:30. [Just a quick note: Mark is not what I think most people would expect. I think he has a little bit of a reputation on this list for being "rough around the edges," but honestly, he is one of the nicest guys I've met (as was Alan).]
Mark began by giving us a little history of how he came to be a professional trader -- absolutely fascinating stuff. The core of the workshop was the revelation of a mechanical Bond model and a somewhat less mechanical options strategy. Mark's view is that it is difficult, if not impossible, for someone to buy a black box system and trade it without understanding the logic. So half the day was spent explaining the logic behind the mechanical bond model.
The Bond Model:
The model was developed using the Ned Davis Technalyzer, which is a piece of software that costs $100K/year to lease and has to be run on a cray supercomputer. The software sounded pretty sophisticated, however Mark's teaching style was clear and engaging, and the explanation of the model's logic was not beyond the understanding of anyone with some degree of knowledge about technical analysis. The model was made to run on perpetual contracts (Mark included a big historical perpetual bond data file for testing) . I tested the model when I got home -- not one losing year going all the way back to '87. (please don't write me asking for the results, or the model)
The Options Model:
The remainder of the day was spent revealing a pretty good options strategy...although it isn't really mechanical, so it requires a bit of skill to implement. Still, the strategy was simple, and again, not beyond the comprehension of anyone with some degree of knowledge about technical analysis.
The second day was spent reviewing and then briefly discussing a few Oddball variations, and some bet sizing techniques.
Mark took all questions patiently, no matter how basic, without making anyone feel stupid. He wanted to make sure we all understood exactly what was being taught. I think I learned almost as much from the discussions we had as from the instructional part. You could tell there was genuine concern that we learned from the experience -- which brings me to another point: Mark was only collecting $1500 for the whole weekend workshop, so clearly he wasn't doing this for the money. I think he is at least partly motivated by a genuine desire to help fledgling traders. And with all the garbage for sale out there, and all the shysters in this business, it was a real privilege to have the opportunity to learn from a legitimate world class trader like Mark.
One final note: I was surprised by the hospitality we were shown as well. We all went to a restaurant for dinner on Saturday night, and had a wonderful time. That was above and beyond what we paid for.
All in all, it was a great experience. My recommendation? If you have the time, you should go.
David
your the only one advertising me.
pay me and see - your cult camp are the only people promoting me. my username was mark brown dot com since 2001 and some mod got a stick up her personal area cause her father jack didn't want some threat like myself appearing to possibly steal the spot light. well i got news for ya i own the spot light factory. i am sick of spotlights so if you will go away i will talk to people who have a like minded technical - mechanical approach to trading and leave all you cultist to drink your kool aid over there.
mb
What a load of crap! There are some successful discretionary traders, but the vast majority are newbies and losers who would rather think of themselves as market wizards than make money. Discretionary trading is ego driven for most because when you use your discretion and make money, you're right!
Complexity is another trap that insecure people fall into, because they need to feel superior with their highly complex, multi-nuanced, brilliantly formulated, gold-plated turds. Even if they had a simple method that was profitable, they wouldn't trade it.
The Hershey "method" can't be backtested because it's a bunch of crap, NOT because it's so great that only a "beautiful mind" can trade it.
Complexity is another trap that insecure people fall into, because they need to feel superior with their highly complex, multi-nuanced, brilliantly formulated, gold-plated turds. Even if they had a simple method that was profitable, they wouldn't trade it.
The Hershey "method" can't be backtested because it's a bunch of crap, NOT because it's so great that only a "beautiful mind" can trade it.
i wish i had read this post 15 years ago, cause i went the gold plated turd route. i knew i was never cut out to be a great trader so i used computers and complexity to try and build like a bat or spider man suit that would make me a super trader hero.
what i finally found was that i could use massive amounts of data to get a good feeling about some simple small edge and then with that with un-perfect edge - use some probability theory with it and make some money trading.
mb
btw what you said in your post is so true it should be cast in bronze and placed at the entrance to every trading forum.
Well, my discretionary approach in stocks was based on the rules that the MARKET gave me. Over time, I learned to understand its movement and adapted my trading to fit into ITS rhythm, not my own. No ego for me, my only concern was will I be able to read its signals fast enough and act fast enough to profit. I could care less if what I thought would happen independent of what I was seeing, would come true. As a matter of fact, I always take the stance that I dont know what will happen until I sit down and start seeing action. I never come into a day with any bias whatsoever.
Im sorry you think its all crap, personally I am estatic that people like you cant get backtesting to work because my niche is trading, not automation of a strategy through backtesting. Until they create software that is more complex and better than the human mind, then maybe i'll be in trouble. Then again, the world might end as the robots take over etc etc.
Its obvious we will never see eye to eye on this, I know my success has been attributed to my approach and correct application of the hershey method (which is based on the markets rules, of how IT operates). Success doesnt happen overnight, alot alot alot of time and effort has been expended to learn to see things the right way (the markets way, NOT my own).
Im sorry you think its all crap, personally I am estatic that people like you cant get backtesting to work because my niche is trading, not automation of a strategy through backtesting. Until they create software that is more complex and better than the human mind, then maybe i'll be in trouble. Then again, the world might end as the robots take over etc etc.
Its obvious we will never see eye to eye on this, I know my success has been attributed to my approach and correct application of the hershey method (which is based on the markets rules, of how IT operates). Success doesnt happen overnight, alot alot alot of time and effort has been expended to learn to see things the right way (the markets way, NOT my own).
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