Quote from Derivman:
Thanks MTE for the reply. If the 90% statistic is correct in relation to Options expiring worthless then why would one want to close out the Option prior to expiry. Is it because the trader has not done his homework correct and does not have a definitive decision as to where the market might be by expiry date, or is it something else. I fail to see why one would not use the statistics to ones advantage in trading. This reminds me of the bell curve and the Market Profile Techniques which are used on the S&P 500, where the price will deviate from the mean and then return to the mean. If you know there is a very good chance the price will return to the mean then surely you can use this to your advantage in trading the S&P 500. So, if you know that 90% of Options expire worthless, then surely you can also use this to your advantage in trading Options.Cheers.
Derivman
Derivman,
I'm sorry, mate, but after reading this it just makes me wanna give up on trying to help you understand these concepts.