Marc Faber, Dollar Will Eventually Go to Value of Zero, Oct 26, 2009

[makloda]

Does anybody else have a feeling Faber slips in these ridiculous lines into his interviews, just so the blogs keep picking him up?

* "100% certain US will have hyperinflation as bad as Zimbabwe"
* "Guaranteed that the Dollar will implode to value of zero"
* "Financial system collapse and another world war within our lifetime a certainty"

Either he is completely nuts or he's a viral marketing genius. He's probably laughing his ass off with his buddies back in the Thai jungle when they're smoking a bong.

 

[makloda]

Quote from Swan Noir:

Your song is not old it is a classic.

Indeed. Faber is just another talking head signing a very old and tired song. Eventually he (or his successors) will be right, everybody will have forgotten about the dozens of clowns who were proven wrong by the markets before:

# Hardcover: 264 pages
# Publisher: Beaufort Books (April 1985)
# Language: English

http://www.amazon.com/Profit-Coming...=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1256683465&sr=1-3

 

[Debaser82]

It is my believe people in the western world have had the pleasure to enjoy one of the longest periods of rising prosperity and peace in history that we have grown so accustomed to, a state of affairs we can not possibly see coming to an end.

We therefore tend to shield ourselves from the possibility of a different future ahead perhaps even only on a psychological level.

I live in a town that has been basically bombed to pieces during WWII but I can tell you this has left the mindset of the people of today completely and that's not even a bad thing perhaps because that is what people do. You adapt and move on.

Now don't get me wrong I have no frozen food stocked up in my bassement nor do I have all my money in physical gold (I own goldstocks as well ) but in my view people like Faber (who stands out amongst his peers imo) only tries to share his view on a future perhaps not so bright as many still today might think and he does that with quite more nuance then these headlines seem to suggest without claiming to know all the answers.

He was bullish on the USD fall 08 and has been bullish on the USD since the end of the summer this year so to suggest he is a one trick poney who has been screaming the sky is falling forever isnt totally coresponding with the actual facts I would say.

In fact, when you read between the lines the message he has gotten across to me is to relax, don't fear the future, people, banks and even countries have been going bankrupt for centuries and after each period of doom comes a period of boom.

You just need to try and play the swings for personal profit and if you fail, too bad better luck next time.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from Debaser82:

"... In fact, when you read between the lines the message he has gotten across to me is to relax, don't fear the future, people, banks and even countries have been going bankrupt for centuries and after each period of doom comes a period of boom.

The hole in your optimism....

Though it's true, "boom has followed gloom", the problem is that the winners in the new recovery are generally not the ones who lost when things went but...

 

[Swan Noir]

All the pundits worth their salt do it and have forever. Give print people a headline and broadcast people a sound bite.

Media 101

Quote from makloda:

Does anybody else have a feeling Faber slips in these ridiculous lines into his interviews, just so the blogs keep picking him up?

 

[Swan Noir]

I hate to give any of these bullshit pundits any credence but Debaser is right. Faber is a notch (OK ... maybe only a half notch) better than the rest.

He knows their are no straight lines up or down and is sometimes in tune with the markets. More than I can say for the others. Sound bites make money; hence Mr. Faber gives them sound bites.

 

[Misthos]

Quote from makloda:

Does anybody else have a feeling Faber slips in these ridiculous lines into his interviews, just so the blogs keep picking him up?

* "100% certain US will have hyperinflation as bad as Zimbabwe"
* "Guaranteed that the Dollar will implode to value of zero"
* "Financial system collapse and another world war within our lifetime a certainty"

Either he is completely nuts or he's a viral marketing genius. He's probably laughing his ass off with his buddies back in the Thai jungle when they're smoking a bong.

I'm sure it would sound ridiculous to a lot of Ivy League educated people if somebody went back in time and told them in 1929 that their financial crisis would end in a World War a decade later that would ultimately cost the lives of 10s of millions of people, and that rockets would fly from Germany to London.

Just because a scenario is horrific, doesn't make it that less likely to happen.

 

[Debaser82]

Quote from Scataphagos:

The hole in your optimism....

Though it's true, "boom has followed gloom", the problem is that the winners in the new recovery are generally not the ones who lost when things went but...

Look at Germany.

Bankrupt to the bone.

Bombed back to the stone age.

Most hated people in the world for decades.

See where they are today.

It can be done.

 

[tmarket]

Quote from cleveland45:

t-market: Reagan: rabid segregationalist.

Faber: rabid socialist.

lol.

I made no representation of these two other than what they did and what they said. Their actions spoke for themselves.

 

[makloda]

Quote from Misthos:

Just because a scenario is horrific, doesn't make it that less likely to happen.

Yes, but repeating the same scenario for 35 years year in year out doesn't make it more likely neither.

In my world, anything has a probability attached to it. Financial Armageddon has a place in my probability universe just like Goldilocks does. I don't operate on "100% likelihood" or "guaranteed with absolute certainty" dogmas, I think you're bound for a world of pain if you do.

Obivously, the talking heads including Faber are not concerned with thinking "what if my investment recommendation goes against me? When do I admit I am wrong?". Rather, they're engaged in a "who makes the most outrageous call that gathers headlines" beauty/horror contest. The more attention the better.

This leads to an interesting question. Did retail (!) investors save more money following sell/short recommendations by the doomsday talking head du jour over say the last three decades or did they end up hurting their long-term investing performance. My guess is the latter. This would be a great topic for a behavioral finance study.