Managing Funds for a Living
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A bit late, but timely enuf:
Adjustments...
<b>Friday, April 25, 2008
3:40 pm EST
Sold 100 shares of IOC (Interoil Corporation) at $17.75 (bid).
Bought (2) HOV May 10 (HOVEB) call option contract at $2.30 (ask).
Sold (2) HOV May 12.5 (HOVEV) call option contract at $0.60 (bid).
RESET Stop Loss: $10.80</b>
pS
OK to e'splain myself - IOC is lagging (TA) and with (some) of these issues and with the market, we need to err on the side of caution.
In fact I've seen all the covered call sites and of the few that are posting results of managed trades - they all fail. But the undiscerning eye may not know. You cannot have success 4 out of 5 times and have the 1 time be as much or worse than the cum of the other 4. This is the case for all that I have seen. Good results for a handful of months or couple of years and then WHAM - everything and more given up due to not mitigating high-yielding covered call trades that move against you. "nuf said. Keep tight stops!!
So yeah IOC is outa here!! I can put the money to work in a better, heavier-backed issue next week and still reap (with a reasonably "nice" market backdrop) a hefty reward
Now with HOV: With the stock having moved further in-the-money than when I first entered the buy/write, nearly all the gain can now be locked in. PLUS more premium is on the table for the 12.5 calls with the possibility for further stock appreciation/gain (up to 12.5 from the current 12.2).
Here's the (simple) math: Bought HOV 14-Apr-2008 at $10.65 and sold the May 10 calls at $1.55. So $0.65 was ITM (in-the-money/subtract this from gain) and we make $0.90 on $10.65.
BUT the ask on the HOV 10's right now (9 trading days later) is $2.30 with the stock at $12.20 - only $0.10 in premium left on the table if we close out the position today. Why hold this volatile stock in this uncertain market for 3 more weeks until expiration just to make an additional $0.10?
We closed out the short call sell and sold the May 12.5's at $0.60 enabling us to now make an additional $0.50 on the stock PLUS (perhaps) $0.30 up to the strike for a total of an 7.5% + 4.9% + (if called) 2.5% [.8/10.65 + .6/12.2 +.3/12.2] = 14.9% - just for HOLDING the stock for 5 weeks!
Furthermore it seems institutions are liking this stock at this level.
Just some "crack" analysis or tricks I've learned as we sleep our way to 10's of millions? (lol)
See we profit with each passing (non-eventful) minute from the speculators who are buying these call option contracts
<b>Good weekend to all and I will update my MP</b> ASAP.
paySensE
Adjustments...
<b>Friday, April 25, 2008
3:40 pm EST
Sold 100 shares of IOC (Interoil Corporation) at $17.75 (bid).
Bought (2) HOV May 10 (HOVEB) call option contract at $2.30 (ask).
Sold (2) HOV May 12.5 (HOVEV) call option contract at $0.60 (bid).
RESET Stop Loss: $10.80</b>
pS
OK to e'splain myself - IOC is lagging (TA) and with (some) of these issues and with the market, we need to err on the side of caution.
In fact I've seen all the covered call sites and of the few that are posting results of managed trades - they all fail. But the undiscerning eye may not know. You cannot have success 4 out of 5 times and have the 1 time be as much or worse than the cum of the other 4. This is the case for all that I have seen. Good results for a handful of months or couple of years and then WHAM - everything and more given up due to not mitigating high-yielding covered call trades that move against you. "nuf said. Keep tight stops!!
So yeah IOC is outa here!! I can put the money to work in a better, heavier-backed issue next week and still reap (with a reasonably "nice" market backdrop) a hefty reward
Now with HOV: With the stock having moved further in-the-money than when I first entered the buy/write, nearly all the gain can now be locked in. PLUS more premium is on the table for the 12.5 calls with the possibility for further stock appreciation/gain (up to 12.5 from the current 12.2).
Here's the (simple) math: Bought HOV 14-Apr-2008 at $10.65 and sold the May 10 calls at $1.55. So $0.65 was ITM (in-the-money/subtract this from gain) and we make $0.90 on $10.65.
BUT the ask on the HOV 10's right now (9 trading days later) is $2.30 with the stock at $12.20 - only $0.10 in premium left on the table if we close out the position today. Why hold this volatile stock in this uncertain market for 3 more weeks until expiration just to make an additional $0.10?
We closed out the short call sell and sold the May 12.5's at $0.60 enabling us to now make an additional $0.50 on the stock PLUS (perhaps) $0.30 up to the strike for a total of an 7.5% + 4.9% + (if called) 2.5% [.8/10.65 + .6/12.2 +.3/12.2] = 14.9% - just for HOLDING the stock for 5 weeks!
Furthermore it seems institutions are liking this stock at this level.
Just some "crack" analysis or tricks I've learned as we sleep our way to 10's of millions? (lol)
See we profit with each passing (non-eventful) minute from the speculators who are buying these call option contracts
<b>Good weekend to all and I will update my MP</b> ASAP.
paySensE
OK, pretty normal stuff and what we (usually) expect. Capitalize with CC's during favorable market periods - avoid during detrimental (to CC's) periods.
So far so good. 45% from Aug '06 to Feb '07. Maintained these gains all through the Aug '07 correction. Once the New Year kicked in still avoided massive evaporation of funds (too bad didn't already have $10M in account).
Now after one month having entered a likely solid bottom we are conservatively (comparably low fund beta or volatility) gaining YTD at 6.5%. Remember 2007? "Only" made 12.5% for the whole year - but stuck with <i>proven</i> strategy.
Now if we can get the <b>normal</b> continuation of a healthy uptrend and capitalize on 2-3+ months at our rate that $20k can easily move to $30k (or $10M to $15M
AM I CRAZY? BEEN HARPING FOR (nearly) ONE YEAR WHAT I AM DOING AND WELL (I do).
Of course worse case the market retreats, forges new lows and goes into Bear Market hibernation only to come out even MORE POWERFUL! (see Mar 2003 to present) How will we fare you ask? Well already having an almost 15% jump on the Nasdaq <i>in just one year</i> that would become like, what, 35-40%? And then what. . .a nice 75% ramp up in the 10 or so months that follow.
HUGE either way you look at it. So IF we had to plod along another 2 years and got insult after insult from ET posts, who cares and how easy is this and haven't any replies as to the comparably BIG uptick these goals produce? Go figure. And another funny thing is that once goals weren't apparent or immediately met (while the naysayers had their day poo-pooing this thread) - it now attracts very little interest. ROTFLMAO
All in due time, all in due time gilL.
cc: attached Model Portfolio (mp)
Paysense
So far so good. 45% from Aug '06 to Feb '07. Maintained these gains all through the Aug '07 correction. Once the New Year kicked in still avoided massive evaporation of funds (too bad didn't already have $10M in account).
Now after one month having entered a likely solid bottom we are conservatively (comparably low fund beta or volatility) gaining YTD at 6.5%. Remember 2007? "Only" made 12.5% for the whole year - but stuck with <i>proven</i> strategy.
Now if we can get the <b>normal</b> continuation of a healthy uptrend and capitalize on 2-3+ months at our rate that $20k can easily move to $30k (or $10M to $15M
AM I CRAZY? BEEN HARPING FOR (nearly) ONE YEAR WHAT I AM DOING AND WELL (I do).
Of course worse case the market retreats, forges new lows and goes into Bear Market hibernation only to come out even MORE POWERFUL! (see Mar 2003 to present) How will we fare you ask? Well already having an almost 15% jump on the Nasdaq <i>in just one year</i> that would become like, what, 35-40%? And then what. . .a nice 75% ramp up in the 10 or so months that follow.
HUGE either way you look at it. So IF we had to plod along another 2 years and got insult after insult from ET posts, who cares and how easy is this and haven't any replies as to the comparably BIG uptick these goals produce? Go figure. And another funny thing is that once goals weren't apparent or immediately met (while the naysayers had their day poo-pooing this thread) - it now attracts very little interest. ROTFLMAO
All in due time, all in due time gilL.
cc: attached Model Portfolio (mp)
Paysense
<b>Last week's newsletter. (I'll try and post this earlier in the week.) Actual url's and company name omitted per ET policy. This pretty much is an ongoing blog/study to entertain the idea of some larger goals that I may one day achieve.</b>
Pro Members Area > Newsletters > April 20, 2008
Weekly Newsletter
Volume VII, Issue XVI
April 20, 2008
Announcements
Be sure to capitalize by using our Hedge Fund Manager as your very own personal investment coach! Now included with your Classic or Pro subscription, you may speak directly with Mr. Gilbert J. Arevalo, President & Chief Hedge Fund Strategist, Xxxxxxx Capital Management by simply calling his personal line at (cell) xxx.xxx.xxxx to get your investments back on track - FAST!!
In 2008, Xxxxxxx Capital went into "Stop Losses" mode - a change in our Market Direction call - enacted Friday, 04-Jan-2008. The Nasdaq's Feb. 13 follow-through did prompt us to temporarily issue our "Green Light" directive, however multiple distribution days from the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow - resulted in an undercut of the Jan. 22-23 lows - prompting us to move back into "Stop Losses" mode.
While every major market advance has started with a follow-through, not every follow-through has triggered a big bull run. Recently, the Dow followed through on its new rally attempt putting us back into "Green Light" mode, effective Thursday, 20-Mar-2008. We then saw further conviction amongst big-money, institutional investors this past Tuesday, 01-Apr-2008, as the market's big price moves in higher volume netted follow-throughs for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and NYSE composite - propelling all of the major indexes above key resistance levels!
The best way to navigate this kind of market is also the best way to navigate any market condition: exercise discipline - WHICH YOU WILL LEARN as a member of Xxxxxxx Capital Training Institute! If you're a novice covered call writer, check out our two exhaustive Training Seminar series' at XxxxxxxCapital.com, and learn more about mastering a set of proper covered call buy and sell rules. Even if you're a veteran trader, a refresher course is a good idea. Even the most successful investors make their share of mistakes!
At Xxxxxxx Capital, we lay out multiple strategies for coping with a declining stock or market correction. You'll also find tips on how to spot a follow-through day, so you can be ready to buy with each market recovery. No time like the present, so GET ON BOARD TODAY and begin afresh to learn how to manage your money like a pro! Simply follow along with each and every trade made in our stellar portfolios and you too, will soon understand how and why we do what we do - and reap the financial benefits of a lifetime!
You may not be aware of it, but the individual investor is hard-pressed TO MAKE ANY KIND OF MONEY with his or her investments. I'm not talking about the occasional hit or home-run, but over any multi-year period (more than one) - even the seasoned pro will likely fall short of the major averages. With the close of 2007, we at XxxxxxxCapital.com are very proud to have afforded our members with 7.32% and 11.56% year-to-date gains, from trades made in our respective Classic and Pro Funds.
Only by following ALL OF OUR MOVES in and out of the stock market and covered call positions, will you be able to FULLY UNDERSTAND how we have outperformed in the past! Study ALL of our Performance Charts to gain a perspective on how we handle both favorable and untenable market periods.
Learn how to grow your funds EXPONENTIALLY - AND TO KEEP YOUR LOSSES TO A MINIMUM! In 2006 we avoided major losses to our Funds by side-stepping the onslaught of the year's 15% correction from the Nasdaq. Then we successfully phased into high-yielding covered call positions - just days after the Stock Market bottom. OUR FUNDS MOVED UP 45% IN JUST SIX MONTHS!
We navigated even more treacherous waters in 2007 with not one, but three very abrupt, short-lived market corrections! Once again losses were contained, preserving our heady past annual gains - for what will certainly unfold as a most opportune time for us to to compound our funds. At XxxxxxxCapital.com we do exactly what we say, year-in and year-out, so Get on board TODAY!
Glimpse at a recent snapshot of our "Pro" Model Portfolio and updated Performance Charts; Pro Fund and Pro Fund vs Nasdaq and see that our covered call training services are unrivaled in the industry!
Pro Members Area > Newsletters > April 20, 2008
Weekly Newsletter
Volume VII, Issue XVI
April 20, 2008
Announcements
Be sure to capitalize by using our Hedge Fund Manager as your very own personal investment coach! Now included with your Classic or Pro subscription, you may speak directly with Mr. Gilbert J. Arevalo, President & Chief Hedge Fund Strategist, Xxxxxxx Capital Management by simply calling his personal line at (cell) xxx.xxx.xxxx to get your investments back on track - FAST!!
In 2008, Xxxxxxx Capital went into "Stop Losses" mode - a change in our Market Direction call - enacted Friday, 04-Jan-2008. The Nasdaq's Feb. 13 follow-through did prompt us to temporarily issue our "Green Light" directive, however multiple distribution days from the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow - resulted in an undercut of the Jan. 22-23 lows - prompting us to move back into "Stop Losses" mode.
While every major market advance has started with a follow-through, not every follow-through has triggered a big bull run. Recently, the Dow followed through on its new rally attempt putting us back into "Green Light" mode, effective Thursday, 20-Mar-2008. We then saw further conviction amongst big-money, institutional investors this past Tuesday, 01-Apr-2008, as the market's big price moves in higher volume netted follow-throughs for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and NYSE composite - propelling all of the major indexes above key resistance levels!
The best way to navigate this kind of market is also the best way to navigate any market condition: exercise discipline - WHICH YOU WILL LEARN as a member of Xxxxxxx Capital Training Institute! If you're a novice covered call writer, check out our two exhaustive Training Seminar series' at XxxxxxxCapital.com, and learn more about mastering a set of proper covered call buy and sell rules. Even if you're a veteran trader, a refresher course is a good idea. Even the most successful investors make their share of mistakes!
At Xxxxxxx Capital, we lay out multiple strategies for coping with a declining stock or market correction. You'll also find tips on how to spot a follow-through day, so you can be ready to buy with each market recovery. No time like the present, so GET ON BOARD TODAY and begin afresh to learn how to manage your money like a pro! Simply follow along with each and every trade made in our stellar portfolios and you too, will soon understand how and why we do what we do - and reap the financial benefits of a lifetime!
You may not be aware of it, but the individual investor is hard-pressed TO MAKE ANY KIND OF MONEY with his or her investments. I'm not talking about the occasional hit or home-run, but over any multi-year period (more than one) - even the seasoned pro will likely fall short of the major averages. With the close of 2007, we at XxxxxxxCapital.com are very proud to have afforded our members with 7.32% and 11.56% year-to-date gains, from trades made in our respective Classic and Pro Funds.
Only by following ALL OF OUR MOVES in and out of the stock market and covered call positions, will you be able to FULLY UNDERSTAND how we have outperformed in the past! Study ALL of our Performance Charts to gain a perspective on how we handle both favorable and untenable market periods.
Learn how to grow your funds EXPONENTIALLY - AND TO KEEP YOUR LOSSES TO A MINIMUM! In 2006 we avoided major losses to our Funds by side-stepping the onslaught of the year's 15% correction from the Nasdaq. Then we successfully phased into high-yielding covered call positions - just days after the Stock Market bottom. OUR FUNDS MOVED UP 45% IN JUST SIX MONTHS!
We navigated even more treacherous waters in 2007 with not one, but three very abrupt, short-lived market corrections! Once again losses were contained, preserving our heady past annual gains - for what will certainly unfold as a most opportune time for us to to compound our funds. At XxxxxxxCapital.com we do exactly what we say, year-in and year-out, so Get on board TODAY!
Glimpse at a recent snapshot of our "Pro" Model Portfolio and updated Performance Charts; Pro Fund and Pro Fund vs Nasdaq and see that our covered call training services are unrivaled in the industry!
Week in Review: Market Analysis
The major market indexes lost ground again on Monday, but a strong showing by leading energy stocks produced a bit of a stealth rally. Volume receded across the board. Monday's decline made it five drops in the past six sessions for the Nasdaq, four out of five for the S&P 500. That stretch includes a distribution day the prior Wednesday, when the broad indexes lost ground in higher volume than in the prior session. Meanwhile, the economy appears headed for a recession, if it isn't in one already. As we enter the thick of first-quarter earnings season, profits are expected to turn lower. Energy costs are through the roof, the housing market remains in rough shape and liquidity is a major problem for everyone from the biggest investment banks to the smallest lenders.
Financial stocks were weaker Monday with Wachovia unexpectedly reporting a first-quarter loss. The bank also plans to cut staff, its dividend and raise $7 billion. These are not the conditions you'd expect to see in a stock market rally. More than three weeks removed from a follow-through day, the market continued to send mixed signals. Still, a few encouraging signs have also emerged. For one thing, the market hasn't shown many signs of heavy professional selling. On Friday the major indexes notched big price losses on a profit warning from General Electric. But volume remained quiet that day, suggesting that big-money investors weren't dumping shares. In the meantime, oil and agriculture stocks have fueled a strong rally in materials. Driven by growing energy demand, a range of related stocks, from drillers to refiners and marketers to oil field-services providers, have delivered impressive breakouts from well-formed bases. Agricultural stocks have experienced similar growth.
For all the strength in those industries, the market had delivered few breakouts from other sectors. Tech stocks have struggled to recapture their lost luster, with 2007 leaders such as Apple and Google languishing well off their old highs. The strongest bull markets typically feature more breadth, with a wider range of industries producing new leadership. On the other hand, some market uptrends do take a little while to kick into gear. When the market followed through on a new rally in March 2003, a few minor rough patches cropped up at first. Breakouts were a bit slow to emerge early on, with a war raging and uncertainty surrounding world events. Eventually conditions improved, though. Stocks took off, launching a strong bull market. Five years later, we're still at war, there's still uncertainty looming, and breakouts have been lacking from nonmaterials sectors.
Stocks got an early boost from the New York Empire State index, which delivered rare good news on the economy. The index, which offers a reading of manufacturing in the New York region, rose to 0.6 in April. That figure smashed economists' estimates of a -17 reading and came in well above the -22.2 number reported last month. Any reading that is positive suggests growth, while a negative reading suggests a slowdown in the sector. Most other recent economic indicators have pointed to a slowdown in the economy.
Inflation also has been a hot-button topic, and that discussion continued Tuesday. The producer price index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, jumped 1.1% last month. The result came in well above forecasts for an 0.6% advance and easily topped February's 0.3% rise. The core PPI, which strips out the effects of volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, matching estimates. Core PPI climbed 0.5% last month Of course, stripping out the impact of surging food and energy prices ignores two driving forces in the market right now. May crude vaulted $2.03 to settle at a record $113.79 a barrel Tuesday, after hitting a record $114.08 earlier.
So far, the stock market has delivered a mixed reaction to the twin fears of recession and inflation. On the one hand, we're 3 1/2 weeks past a follow-through by the Dow, and the market remains in an overall uptrend. On the other hand, the major indexes have struggled to make much headway lately. Soaring commodities prices have been a boon to energy and agriculture stocks, though, fueling a number of breakouts and moves to new highs. That trend continued Tuesday.
Bullish earnings news from several big-name companies triggered huge gains on Wall Street on Wednesday, while leading stocks delivered their best performance so far during the new market uptrend. The Nasdaq gapped up at the open and surged 2.8%, closing at its intraday high. The NYSE composite vaulted 2.5%, the S&P 500 2.3% and the Dow industrials 2.1%. The small-cap S&P 600 leapt 3%. Volume swelled 11% on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE compared with Tuesday's levels.
JPMorgan motored ahead 7% in brisk trade. Hurt by turmoil in the mortgage market, the Dow component reported Q1 profit of 68 cents a share, down 49% from a year earlier ââ¬â but 4 cents above estimates. The bank wrote down more than $5 billion in credit losses. CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank has enough liquidity to handle tough market conditions. Intel jumped 6% after it reported strong sales and gave a rosy margin outlook. Late Tuesday, the world's biggest chipmaker said Q1 earnings slipped 7% to 25 cents a share, in line with views. But sales grew 9% to $9.67 billion, above views. Intel also said it expects a gross margin of 56% in the current quarter, above views of 54.9%. It pegged a full-year profit margin of about 57%. Intel's outlook eased fears that the glut in Nand memory chips would hurt earnings. The Philadelphia semiconductor index zoomed 5.5%, marking one of its biggest gains in years and giving the Nasdaq a big boost.
For growth investors, though, the best news came from leading stocks. In the first few weeks after the Dow's March 20 follow-through day, energy and agriculture stocks notched their share of big gains. But few other industries followed suit. The market finally saw some significant breadth on Wednesday. Stocks hailing from a variety of sectors and niches logged breakouts, jumped to new highs or otherwise impressed. That's the way a healthy market should act. Go back to early 2003, late 1998 or other periods and you'll find bull markets that included dozens of powerful breakouts by top-rated stocks of all kinds. Ideally, that's what you'd like to see this time, too. Fertilizer makers soared as China agreed to a big hike in potash prices. Stocks outside the commodities sphere also rallied. The IBD 100 romped 4%, outperforming the broad market and underscoring the strong showing by leading stocks.
Stocks trimmed early losses Thursday, showing resilience by shaking off negative economic news and some mixed earnings reports. The Nasdaq fell as much as 1% intraday. But an afternoon rally left the tech-laden index down 0.4% for the session. The NYSE composite shed 0.3%. The Dow and S&P 500 rallied all the way back into the black, closing just above the break-even point. Volume eased across the board. Trading pulled back 12% on the Nasdaq and 10% on the NYSE compared with Wednesday's totals.
Freddie Mac confirmed it will buy jumbo mortgages from four top lenders ââ¬â Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Washington Mutual. The government lifted restrictions on jumbo loans earlier this year. Merrill Lynch posted a wider-than-expected loss and announced a round of job cuts. Merrill reported more than $6 billion in write-downs. But Chairman and CEO John Thain reassured investors by saying his firm remains "well-capitalized." The company also said it would slash 4,000 jobs. Shares rallied 4% after a slow start. The market has been searching for signs the liquidity crunch is loosening up. The Freddie Mac news was the latest sign that baby steps are being taken in that direction.
Elsewhere, positive earnings news also pleased investors. IBM rose in more than twice its normal trade. Late Wednesday, the IT, computer hardware and software titan topped earnings views and raised its full-year outlook. A huge market leader in the past, IBM has been eclipsed over the years by newer, faster-growing tech names. But Big Blue has revived its fundamental growth recently, with earnings growth trending higher for five straight quarters. IBM's stock broke out of a long base on Wednesday. After the close, Google joined the party with a strong earnings report of its own. The Internet search and services provider reported a 32% jump in Q1 earnings, easing fears of weakness in the company's online ad business. The stock rocketed 17% in after-hours trading. Google also stoked the broader after-hours market. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.3% in late trading.
The major market indexes lost ground again on Monday, but a strong showing by leading energy stocks produced a bit of a stealth rally. Volume receded across the board. Monday's decline made it five drops in the past six sessions for the Nasdaq, four out of five for the S&P 500. That stretch includes a distribution day the prior Wednesday, when the broad indexes lost ground in higher volume than in the prior session. Meanwhile, the economy appears headed for a recession, if it isn't in one already. As we enter the thick of first-quarter earnings season, profits are expected to turn lower. Energy costs are through the roof, the housing market remains in rough shape and liquidity is a major problem for everyone from the biggest investment banks to the smallest lenders.
Financial stocks were weaker Monday with Wachovia unexpectedly reporting a first-quarter loss. The bank also plans to cut staff, its dividend and raise $7 billion. These are not the conditions you'd expect to see in a stock market rally. More than three weeks removed from a follow-through day, the market continued to send mixed signals. Still, a few encouraging signs have also emerged. For one thing, the market hasn't shown many signs of heavy professional selling. On Friday the major indexes notched big price losses on a profit warning from General Electric. But volume remained quiet that day, suggesting that big-money investors weren't dumping shares. In the meantime, oil and agriculture stocks have fueled a strong rally in materials. Driven by growing energy demand, a range of related stocks, from drillers to refiners and marketers to oil field-services providers, have delivered impressive breakouts from well-formed bases. Agricultural stocks have experienced similar growth.
For all the strength in those industries, the market had delivered few breakouts from other sectors. Tech stocks have struggled to recapture their lost luster, with 2007 leaders such as Apple and Google languishing well off their old highs. The strongest bull markets typically feature more breadth, with a wider range of industries producing new leadership. On the other hand, some market uptrends do take a little while to kick into gear. When the market followed through on a new rally in March 2003, a few minor rough patches cropped up at first. Breakouts were a bit slow to emerge early on, with a war raging and uncertainty surrounding world events. Eventually conditions improved, though. Stocks took off, launching a strong bull market. Five years later, we're still at war, there's still uncertainty looming, and breakouts have been lacking from nonmaterials sectors.
Stocks got an early boost from the New York Empire State index, which delivered rare good news on the economy. The index, which offers a reading of manufacturing in the New York region, rose to 0.6 in April. That figure smashed economists' estimates of a -17 reading and came in well above the -22.2 number reported last month. Any reading that is positive suggests growth, while a negative reading suggests a slowdown in the sector. Most other recent economic indicators have pointed to a slowdown in the economy.
Inflation also has been a hot-button topic, and that discussion continued Tuesday. The producer price index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, jumped 1.1% last month. The result came in well above forecasts for an 0.6% advance and easily topped February's 0.3% rise. The core PPI, which strips out the effects of volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, matching estimates. Core PPI climbed 0.5% last month Of course, stripping out the impact of surging food and energy prices ignores two driving forces in the market right now. May crude vaulted $2.03 to settle at a record $113.79 a barrel Tuesday, after hitting a record $114.08 earlier.
So far, the stock market has delivered a mixed reaction to the twin fears of recession and inflation. On the one hand, we're 3 1/2 weeks past a follow-through by the Dow, and the market remains in an overall uptrend. On the other hand, the major indexes have struggled to make much headway lately. Soaring commodities prices have been a boon to energy and agriculture stocks, though, fueling a number of breakouts and moves to new highs. That trend continued Tuesday.
Bullish earnings news from several big-name companies triggered huge gains on Wall Street on Wednesday, while leading stocks delivered their best performance so far during the new market uptrend. The Nasdaq gapped up at the open and surged 2.8%, closing at its intraday high. The NYSE composite vaulted 2.5%, the S&P 500 2.3% and the Dow industrials 2.1%. The small-cap S&P 600 leapt 3%. Volume swelled 11% on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE compared with Tuesday's levels.
JPMorgan motored ahead 7% in brisk trade. Hurt by turmoil in the mortgage market, the Dow component reported Q1 profit of 68 cents a share, down 49% from a year earlier ââ¬â but 4 cents above estimates. The bank wrote down more than $5 billion in credit losses. CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank has enough liquidity to handle tough market conditions. Intel jumped 6% after it reported strong sales and gave a rosy margin outlook. Late Tuesday, the world's biggest chipmaker said Q1 earnings slipped 7% to 25 cents a share, in line with views. But sales grew 9% to $9.67 billion, above views. Intel also said it expects a gross margin of 56% in the current quarter, above views of 54.9%. It pegged a full-year profit margin of about 57%. Intel's outlook eased fears that the glut in Nand memory chips would hurt earnings. The Philadelphia semiconductor index zoomed 5.5%, marking one of its biggest gains in years and giving the Nasdaq a big boost.
For growth investors, though, the best news came from leading stocks. In the first few weeks after the Dow's March 20 follow-through day, energy and agriculture stocks notched their share of big gains. But few other industries followed suit. The market finally saw some significant breadth on Wednesday. Stocks hailing from a variety of sectors and niches logged breakouts, jumped to new highs or otherwise impressed. That's the way a healthy market should act. Go back to early 2003, late 1998 or other periods and you'll find bull markets that included dozens of powerful breakouts by top-rated stocks of all kinds. Ideally, that's what you'd like to see this time, too. Fertilizer makers soared as China agreed to a big hike in potash prices. Stocks outside the commodities sphere also rallied. The IBD 100 romped 4%, outperforming the broad market and underscoring the strong showing by leading stocks.
Stocks trimmed early losses Thursday, showing resilience by shaking off negative economic news and some mixed earnings reports. The Nasdaq fell as much as 1% intraday. But an afternoon rally left the tech-laden index down 0.4% for the session. The NYSE composite shed 0.3%. The Dow and S&P 500 rallied all the way back into the black, closing just above the break-even point. Volume eased across the board. Trading pulled back 12% on the Nasdaq and 10% on the NYSE compared with Wednesday's totals.
Freddie Mac confirmed it will buy jumbo mortgages from four top lenders ââ¬â Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Washington Mutual. The government lifted restrictions on jumbo loans earlier this year. Merrill Lynch posted a wider-than-expected loss and announced a round of job cuts. Merrill reported more than $6 billion in write-downs. But Chairman and CEO John Thain reassured investors by saying his firm remains "well-capitalized." The company also said it would slash 4,000 jobs. Shares rallied 4% after a slow start. The market has been searching for signs the liquidity crunch is loosening up. The Freddie Mac news was the latest sign that baby steps are being taken in that direction.
Elsewhere, positive earnings news also pleased investors. IBM rose in more than twice its normal trade. Late Wednesday, the IT, computer hardware and software titan topped earnings views and raised its full-year outlook. A huge market leader in the past, IBM has been eclipsed over the years by newer, faster-growing tech names. But Big Blue has revived its fundamental growth recently, with earnings growth trending higher for five straight quarters. IBM's stock broke out of a long base on Wednesday. After the close, Google joined the party with a strong earnings report of its own. The Internet search and services provider reported a 32% jump in Q1 earnings, easing fears of weakness in the company's online ad business. The stock rocketed 17% in after-hours trading. Google also stoked the broader after-hours market. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.3% in late trading.
Weekly Trades
Xxxxxxx Capital Classic Covered Call Fund
This past week, our Classic Fund jumped 3.38%. Thus far in 2008, the fund has gained 3.53%, and is currently 48% vested. Thus far in 2008 it outperforms the Nasdaq by 12.93%, the S&P 500 by 8.83% and the Dow by 6.66%!
For all of 2006 our non-margin fund SWELLED 25.64%. On the year, it outperformed the Nasdaq by 15.93%, the Dow by 9.57% and the S&P 500 by 11.44!
In 2007 our non-margin fund rose 7.32%! On the year, it outperformed the Dow by 0.89%, the S&P 500 by 3.79%, yet underperformed the Nasdaq by 2.49%!
We have called EVERY MARKET BOTTOM...within days! See our Past Performance Charts. Get in on the ground floor, since over time - we have never been outperformed!!!
Xxxxxxx Capital Pro Covered Call Fund
Our "limited"-margin fund also lightened 3.38% on the week. For all of 2008 the fund is up 3.53%. Currently our premier fund is also 48% vested. Thus far in 2008 it too outperforms the Nasdaq by 12.93%, the S&P 500 by 8.83% and the Dow by 6.66%!
Our Pro Fund easily outperformed - SURGING 34.17% for all of 2006! Xxxxxxx Capital finished 2006 with our Pro Fund having outperformed the Nasdaq BY A WHOPPING 24.65%, the Dow by 17.88% and the S&P 500 by 20.55%!
The past year has once again afforded members the opportunity to "enhance" our funds with margin-trading! Our premier fund rose 11.56% in 2007! That outperformed the Nasdaq by 1.75%, the Dow by 5.13% and the S&P 500 by a respectable 8.03%! NO TIME LIKE THE PRESENT to take advantage of all our Services - and to reap the benefits of a lifetime!
Comments from the CEO
Amidst all this, Xxxxxxx Capital continues to be a shining example of how to navigate through treacherous market conditions. First off, we sell covered calls - that's all we do. By accurately moving back into stocks just days after each market bottom we consistently rack up heady gains with relative ease! If you have been following in step with our Hedge Fund Manager, you are now well ahead of the game. Just one look at our Performance Charts and it's easy to see why Xxxxxxx Capital Training Institute...IS HOME OF THE BEST-PERFORMING INVESTMENT FUNDS on the planet!
So where do we go from here? There's no need to try to guess or predict the answer. If market leadership broadens and the major indexes perk up, more buying opportunities will emerge. If current breakouts fail and the market goes south, sound trading rules will organically usher you out of stocks and into cash. Don't make overly aggressive bets either way. If you do buy a stock, wade in slowly at first. Build a bigger position later only if the stock and the broad market improve.
Although relatively few leading stocks have broken out since the March 20 follow-through, there's a positive sign in the Nasdaq's Accumulation/Distribution Rating, which is a solid A. The S&P 500 and NYSE composite have good ratings, too. For the sixth straight week, there were more newsletters making bearish market forecasts than bullish ones. Ultimately, heavy pessimism is good for the market. But the bulls-bears survey isn't a great market-timing indicator. Meanwhile, crude oil and gas prices hit all-time highs Friday. Yet stocks are powering ahead, ignoring surging commodities prices and other signs of inflation, not to mention potential recession. Remember: The stock market always looks a head, not behind.
When earnings season started two weeks ago, some observers fretted that the results could be ugly. With profit growth expected to fall sharply for the quarter, speculation persisted that stocks could bear the brunt of those shortfalls. Instead, the market has been resilient, mostly shaking off bad news while embracing the good news. During the market correction that lasted through the fall and much of the winter, negative tidings from bellwether stocks would often trigger a sell-off. That didn't happen this time. Additionally, the market is getting a boost from the financial sector. A string of reports have strongly pointed to a recession, while soaring commodities prices have raised the specter of inflation. But the market, looking ahead as always, seems to have found brighter news lurking down the road. The week's action has provided more examples of that optimism.
Many of these lessons CAN ONLY BE LEARNED AT Xxxxxxx Capital Training Institute! Watch and learn as our Hedge Fund Manager demonstrates "LIVE" these proven methods in our Covered Call Funds. To get "An Overview of This Website" see FREE Training Seminar 1.
Once again our Covered Call Investment Strategy reigned supreme - easily handing our members handsome 25.5% and 34.2% annual gains in our respective Classic and Pro Funds for all of 2006!
If your investment methods have left you helpless, DON'T GIVE UP! Xxxxxxx Capital Training Institute will give you what you want - to get your money back on track in a seamless and timely manner. Spend time with us and be encouraged that we know best how to grow your accounts with our Historical Averages. We have yet to see a better-performing investment fund!
We offer complete investment training direct from our Hedge Fund Manager. This unique "hands-on" training approach is designed to transform the individual investor into a seasoned professional (or at least get your returns consistent with ours) - within months! Simply go to XxxxxxxCapital.com and SUBSCRIBE to our Free Trial today.
Watch and learn how to manage out-sized returns on a consistent basis as we grow our funds at XxxxxxxCapital.com - the world's only "LIVE" covered call fund!
Xxxxxxx Capital Classic Covered Call Fund
This past week, our Classic Fund jumped 3.38%. Thus far in 2008, the fund has gained 3.53%, and is currently 48% vested. Thus far in 2008 it outperforms the Nasdaq by 12.93%, the S&P 500 by 8.83% and the Dow by 6.66%!
For all of 2006 our non-margin fund SWELLED 25.64%. On the year, it outperformed the Nasdaq by 15.93%, the Dow by 9.57% and the S&P 500 by 11.44!
In 2007 our non-margin fund rose 7.32%! On the year, it outperformed the Dow by 0.89%, the S&P 500 by 3.79%, yet underperformed the Nasdaq by 2.49%!
We have called EVERY MARKET BOTTOM...within days! See our Past Performance Charts. Get in on the ground floor, since over time - we have never been outperformed!!!
Xxxxxxx Capital Pro Covered Call Fund
Our "limited"-margin fund also lightened 3.38% on the week. For all of 2008 the fund is up 3.53%. Currently our premier fund is also 48% vested. Thus far in 2008 it too outperforms the Nasdaq by 12.93%, the S&P 500 by 8.83% and the Dow by 6.66%!
Our Pro Fund easily outperformed - SURGING 34.17% for all of 2006! Xxxxxxx Capital finished 2006 with our Pro Fund having outperformed the Nasdaq BY A WHOPPING 24.65%, the Dow by 17.88% and the S&P 500 by 20.55%!
The past year has once again afforded members the opportunity to "enhance" our funds with margin-trading! Our premier fund rose 11.56% in 2007! That outperformed the Nasdaq by 1.75%, the Dow by 5.13% and the S&P 500 by a respectable 8.03%! NO TIME LIKE THE PRESENT to take advantage of all our Services - and to reap the benefits of a lifetime!
Comments from the CEO
Amidst all this, Xxxxxxx Capital continues to be a shining example of how to navigate through treacherous market conditions. First off, we sell covered calls - that's all we do. By accurately moving back into stocks just days after each market bottom we consistently rack up heady gains with relative ease! If you have been following in step with our Hedge Fund Manager, you are now well ahead of the game. Just one look at our Performance Charts and it's easy to see why Xxxxxxx Capital Training Institute...IS HOME OF THE BEST-PERFORMING INVESTMENT FUNDS on the planet!
So where do we go from here? There's no need to try to guess or predict the answer. If market leadership broadens and the major indexes perk up, more buying opportunities will emerge. If current breakouts fail and the market goes south, sound trading rules will organically usher you out of stocks and into cash. Don't make overly aggressive bets either way. If you do buy a stock, wade in slowly at first. Build a bigger position later only if the stock and the broad market improve.
Although relatively few leading stocks have broken out since the March 20 follow-through, there's a positive sign in the Nasdaq's Accumulation/Distribution Rating, which is a solid A. The S&P 500 and NYSE composite have good ratings, too. For the sixth straight week, there were more newsletters making bearish market forecasts than bullish ones. Ultimately, heavy pessimism is good for the market. But the bulls-bears survey isn't a great market-timing indicator. Meanwhile, crude oil and gas prices hit all-time highs Friday. Yet stocks are powering ahead, ignoring surging commodities prices and other signs of inflation, not to mention potential recession. Remember: The stock market always looks a head, not behind.
When earnings season started two weeks ago, some observers fretted that the results could be ugly. With profit growth expected to fall sharply for the quarter, speculation persisted that stocks could bear the brunt of those shortfalls. Instead, the market has been resilient, mostly shaking off bad news while embracing the good news. During the market correction that lasted through the fall and much of the winter, negative tidings from bellwether stocks would often trigger a sell-off. That didn't happen this time. Additionally, the market is getting a boost from the financial sector. A string of reports have strongly pointed to a recession, while soaring commodities prices have raised the specter of inflation. But the market, looking ahead as always, seems to have found brighter news lurking down the road. The week's action has provided more examples of that optimism.
Many of these lessons CAN ONLY BE LEARNED AT Xxxxxxx Capital Training Institute! Watch and learn as our Hedge Fund Manager demonstrates "LIVE" these proven methods in our Covered Call Funds. To get "An Overview of This Website" see FREE Training Seminar 1.
Once again our Covered Call Investment Strategy reigned supreme - easily handing our members handsome 25.5% and 34.2% annual gains in our respective Classic and Pro Funds for all of 2006!
If your investment methods have left you helpless, DON'T GIVE UP! Xxxxxxx Capital Training Institute will give you what you want - to get your money back on track in a seamless and timely manner. Spend time with us and be encouraged that we know best how to grow your accounts with our Historical Averages. We have yet to see a better-performing investment fund!
We offer complete investment training direct from our Hedge Fund Manager. This unique "hands-on" training approach is designed to transform the individual investor into a seasoned professional (or at least get your returns consistent with ours) - within months! Simply go to XxxxxxxCapital.com and SUBSCRIBE to our Free Trial today.
Watch and learn how to manage out-sized returns on a consistent basis as we grow our funds at XxxxxxxCapital.com - the world's only "LIVE" covered call fund!
Hello. Hope all is well and nice this past weekend.
Some low volume weakness from the indices today. There is hesitancy ahead of the FOMC meeting. I'm thinking most is already expected. Sellers have been largely washed out so may get a nice surge by week end.
Interesting day for our covered call strategy. No, no changes to the portfolio, but from what is learned is that "no news, is good news". On that front many issues barely budged (which is really odd, but really cool).
Anyway take from that what you will. We are still looking for a bit of appreciation in SOLF to sell the calls and we are exercising patience in that we still have cash in our Classic account (non-margin/IRA) and have yet to uses available margin (which at this juncture we DO feel comfortable to leverage a bit more gains) in our Pro account.
Soon enuf we will be trading away, so <b>stay tuned - we are in the early stages of an expected 50% surge to the YTD gains in our CC portfolio.</b>
cc: updated mp (Model Portfolio)
Some low volume weakness from the indices today. There is hesitancy ahead of the FOMC meeting. I'm thinking most is already expected. Sellers have been largely washed out so may get a nice surge by week end.
Interesting day for our covered call strategy. No, no changes to the portfolio, but from what is learned is that "no news, is good news". On that front many issues barely budged (which is really odd, but really cool).
Anyway take from that what you will. We are still looking for a bit of appreciation in SOLF to sell the calls and we are exercising patience in that we still have cash in our Classic account (non-margin/IRA) and have yet to uses available margin (which at this juncture we DO feel comfortable to leverage a bit more gains) in our Pro account.
Soon enuf we will be trading away, so <b>stay tuned - we are in the early stages of an expected 50% surge to the YTD gains in our CC portfolio.</b>
cc: updated mp (Model Portfolio)
The easy money continues to roll in. We are going to go for another 5% play for a 2.2 week holding. Volume buying is back picking this institutional fav off its 50-day M.A.
<b>Thursday, May 1, 2008
12:45 pm EST
Bought 100 shares of CALM (Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.) at $30.00 (ask).
Sold (1) CALM May 30 (QKMEF) call option contract at $1.50 (bid).
Stop Loss: $28.50</b>
p$
<b>Thursday, May 1, 2008
12:45 pm EST
Bought 100 shares of CALM (Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.) at $30.00 (ask).
Sold (1) CALM May 30 (QKMEF) call option contract at $1.50 (bid).
Stop Loss: $28.50</b>
p$
- Status