Managing Funds for a Living
- Thread starter paysense
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This happens to a non-biotech about 2x per year - although the clip doesn't come from what was a very good position (went from 39 purchase ITM to about 45 in a little more than a week) with such a sudden and severe decline for no (yet) apparent reason. It provided a somewhat standard 7.5% DD at my site and C2 fund (which can easily be made up) but I'd like to keep these occurances to the very least. Still (1) biotech with about same DD, (1) market-driven DD usu a bit more ~ 10% and (2) non-biotech drops usu only about 5-6% DD each, occur each year - that at least are somewhat warranted. This is a whole other story - yet still to unfold. I usually just move on and don't even take the time to look back to see what really happened (what the real reason was), since I am busy enuf with continuing to rack up gains. But for now I have time to reflect? and LOL errr:
The below came from a message board. I don't see this from my trades too often:
******
Looks like the feds are getting involved shortly. Very suspicious that a bunch of people seemed to know about this well in advance of any communication from the company and they profited from it.
InterOil Share Decline May Get Probed by Canadian Regulators
2007-06-27 18:28 (New York)
By Sonja Franklin
June 27 (Bloomberg) -- A Canadian market watchdog will probe
why the shares of InterOil Corp., a developer of oil and natural-
gas assets in Papua New Guinea, dropped as much as 40 percent
yesterday in the absence of a news release.
Canada's Market Regulation Services Inc., an independent
regulation-services provider for Canadian equity markets
including the Toronto Stock Exchange, where InterOil is traded,
may ask one of Canada's provincial securities regulators to
investigate the trades if the company can't explain the reason
for the drop.
Shares of InterOil fell C$6.53, or 19 percent, to close at
C$27.96 on the Toronto Stock Exchange today. The stock plunged
27 percent yesterday, the biggest drop since Jan. 3, 2006.
The watchdog agency will perform our normal due diligence
on the activity to look for some alternate explanation'' of the
share decline, Mike Prior, director of market surveillance at
Market Regulation Services, said in a phone interview from
Toronto. If no reason can be found, this would be the type of
situation that we would refer'' to a provincial regulator.
Market Regulation Services is an independent agency that
monitors trading on Canadian exchanges and alternative
marketplaces. It alerts government regulators when it detects
what it considers suspicious activity.
InterOil sent a press release today saying a well in Papua
New Guinea needs to be drilled deeper to determine whether it's
commercial. The statement was sent after Market Regulation
Services and the American Stock Exchange asked InterOil to put
out an update in light of the trading that was occurring,'' Prior
said. Mary Chung, a spokeswoman for the exchange, couldn't
immediately be reached for comment.
David Larson, listed as a contact for InterOil in the news
release, didn't return Bloomberg News calls yesterday or today.
Elk-2
The well, Elk-2, needs to be drilled to a depth of about
10,000 feet (3,048 meters) before more definite results'' on
possible commercial amounts of oil or gas are available, InterOil
said in the release. Elk-2 is currently at 8,684 feet.
Trading in options to sell the shares surged to a record
60,404 in New York, a more than sevenfold increase from the
average volume during the prior 20 days. The price of puts on the
shares, which can protect investors from a decline in the stock,
advanced.
The price of the most actively traded contract, August $25
puts, rose 45 percent to $4.20. The price of July $25 puts jumped
fourfold to $1.60 from 35 cents yesterday. The contract rose 69
percent today to $2.70. The price of August $20 puts more than
tripled to $2.05.
There are no options linked to InterOil's Canadian shares,
according to Bloomberg data.
--With reporting by John Kipphoff in Toronto and Jeff Kearns in
New York. Editor: Jordan (rcs).
To contact the reporter on this story:
Sonja Franklin in Calgary at +1-403-444-5598 or
sfranklin6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Robert Dieterich at +1-212-617-4485 or
rdieterich@bloomberg.net.
The below came from a message board. I don't see this from my trades too often:
******
Looks like the feds are getting involved shortly. Very suspicious that a bunch of people seemed to know about this well in advance of any communication from the company and they profited from it.
InterOil Share Decline May Get Probed by Canadian Regulators
2007-06-27 18:28 (New York)
By Sonja Franklin
June 27 (Bloomberg) -- A Canadian market watchdog will probe
why the shares of InterOil Corp., a developer of oil and natural-
gas assets in Papua New Guinea, dropped as much as 40 percent
yesterday in the absence of a news release.
Canada's Market Regulation Services Inc., an independent
regulation-services provider for Canadian equity markets
including the Toronto Stock Exchange, where InterOil is traded,
may ask one of Canada's provincial securities regulators to
investigate the trades if the company can't explain the reason
for the drop.
Shares of InterOil fell C$6.53, or 19 percent, to close at
C$27.96 on the Toronto Stock Exchange today. The stock plunged
27 percent yesterday, the biggest drop since Jan. 3, 2006.
The watchdog agency will perform our normal due diligence
on the activity to look for some alternate explanation'' of the
share decline, Mike Prior, director of market surveillance at
Market Regulation Services, said in a phone interview from
Toronto. If no reason can be found, this would be the type of
situation that we would refer'' to a provincial regulator.
Market Regulation Services is an independent agency that
monitors trading on Canadian exchanges and alternative
marketplaces. It alerts government regulators when it detects
what it considers suspicious activity.
InterOil sent a press release today saying a well in Papua
New Guinea needs to be drilled deeper to determine whether it's
commercial. The statement was sent after Market Regulation
Services and the American Stock Exchange asked InterOil to put
out an update in light of the trading that was occurring,'' Prior
said. Mary Chung, a spokeswoman for the exchange, couldn't
immediately be reached for comment.
David Larson, listed as a contact for InterOil in the news
release, didn't return Bloomberg News calls yesterday or today.
Elk-2
The well, Elk-2, needs to be drilled to a depth of about
10,000 feet (3,048 meters) before more definite results'' on
possible commercial amounts of oil or gas are available, InterOil
said in the release. Elk-2 is currently at 8,684 feet.
Trading in options to sell the shares surged to a record
60,404 in New York, a more than sevenfold increase from the
average volume during the prior 20 days. The price of puts on the
shares, which can protect investors from a decline in the stock,
advanced.
The price of the most actively traded contract, August $25
puts, rose 45 percent to $4.20. The price of July $25 puts jumped
fourfold to $1.60 from 35 cents yesterday. The contract rose 69
percent today to $2.70. The price of August $20 puts more than
tripled to $2.05.
There are no options linked to InterOil's Canadian shares,
according to Bloomberg data.
--With reporting by John Kipphoff in Toronto and Jeff Kearns in
New York. Editor: Jordan (rcs).
To contact the reporter on this story:
Sonja Franklin in Calgary at +1-403-444-5598 or
sfranklin6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Robert Dieterich at +1-212-617-4485 or
rdieterich@bloomberg.net.
For lack of anything 'better' to post here is some "easy reading" from C2 post:
I will express myself as I freely do and there is nothing 'wrong' with what I am doing. I know what to expect from myself and in good conscience I execute accordingly. That's not to say that there won't be those who post - for whatever reason - on ET or C2, that are basically negative.
I use this as an opportunity for myself to grow and all is fine. My trades at my site have racked up 50% for my subscribers to view in the past 52 weeks. Those that don't believe me and go the extra step to point things out that they see oppose this fact, simply are calling me a liar - but that is not my problem.
I still stand by C2 and the opportunity it will provide for me to execute a successful equity curve. If people hope to hinder my possibility in doing so with their posts - more power to them...but this will NOT be the case.
IOC was an extremely unique situtaion, and with the market dictating caution for my strategy...I've learned a bit this past week. Initially I was a little taken aback or 'gun-shy' to the point that I had to see for myself that the stock's decline was (more) 'stock-related' and not 'market-driven'. This 'faltering' basically caused me a delay of one day (since Friday) or maybe a few to basically get into another position.
Right now I have an abundance of excellent selections that are slightly more conservative to begin - once again - phasing back into the market. Usually I'm very conservative at this stage - when we are due for a correction, however I will continue to let the market be my guide and it says stay the course. I will be adding an 'extra' 2-3 positions - like ST suggested - at this juncture. Probably 1 every 3 days after 2 or one 'larger' one on Monday - instead of 1 'larger' one every 5 days...as the market allows - to perhaps be 'allowed' to get fully vested for JUL-AUG period...we shall see.
AKS, JADE and POZN were cut due to my caution in anticipation of a sharp market decline, as this likely would have erased my XX.com (at the time, 10-12%) YTD gains and I TRY TO
AVOID THIS. That was a moot point when IOC imploded quite unexpectedly (seems something like this ALWAYS happens despite my efforts...even still I did 'save' a couple of percentage points from losses). I'm still up 5% at XX.com
See DD is acceptable:
(and yes this has been ONE month at C2)
- but that is beside the point. I'm not trying to make a whole lot of money right now...I am trying to avoid losses. Either way after a correction, in 2-3 months I very easily go exponential. Were AKS, JADE, POZN or for that matter IOC bad to get into? No, but that's now over. Can I make gains from here? In this market - maybe. Until I unfold a modification to this strategy - which I soon will, I want to keep this one exact with what I've been training members for years at XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com. NO protective puts, no WOTM index spreads, etc. to minimize losses/juice gains. Excellent results will still unfold - but likely at the low end of returns due to late-bull market.
And yes, I 'could've' VERY EASILY saved 3% of the 7.5% IOC drawdown by simply going naked on the short option position and sell the stock first (the Jul 40's are currently quite worthless) - but again THIS FUND will stay within parameters given members thus far at XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com - stricly a 'covered' call fund.
The bottom line is I am egged on by inception with this fund at C2 - that initially led to marked drawdown. And then by all the unfolding 'negativity'. Should I change anything with my approach to management? Probably not. Will I? Yes, a bit (slight increase to positions - a bit more conservative (stronger stock/ a bit less volatile - but still a good 5-6% monthly return possible).
You see, I am content to sit and wait for the market to correct, since I know I will call the bottom within days and rack up some very substantial, impressive gains. For this strategy, I do this very easily. The main point for now - and some may learn from this - is to preserve (as much as possible) the previously compounded gains.
I know you haven't actually seen this and there are a handful of persons that are bent on seeing this never happen - because I am 'dishonest' (steal phrases for my own personal notes), am misleading 'newbie' investors, am encouraged I can do well with this interface - but I am a liar, won't, am just arrogant, conceited and self-decieved so let's keep reminding the masses - "I said I should make the top ten of C2 (stock) funds", over and over again and accomplish ????.
I've done a little study this past weekend and I've come up with some doozies. First off, many an investor has not experienced salvaging gains after they have been easily racked up. Take late 90's up until 2003. This period basically shell-shocked many an investor out of the game as their confidence was crushed. Long-term investing with dollar-cost averaging does work - hopefully they are still invested in this fashion. Personally, I think most should spend considerable time thinking how they are going to limit losses to their own funds instead of which system is racking up the quick buck right now.
We have been in an extended bull market since 2003. The easy gains have been made. Market cycles will eventually unfold that will allow for more subtantial gains to be made again - but in the meantime...many will get washed away with the tide and permanantly taken out the game.
That being said, C2 has been around a few years during this optimal period. I'm not exactly sure how many stock funds have even made money and still look attractive through the corrections - which we've had EACH YEAR. I've seen (cursory mind you - and my hat is off to them) Tango and Extreme-os and how they make money [up to 1/4 of fund daytraded (over 2 -3 days) - on stocks I (mostly) can't figure out why were picked, liquidity issues - not to mention timing, computer glitches, exteme drawdowns (individual stock positions) for minor gains etc.].
So these have survived 'scalping' $1,000 here and $1,000 there on $250,000 to rack up a nice 100% annual average. Seems last summer's correction was handled well enough but paltry gains this year (that might've compounded powerfully with this? apporach) and the choppy action they are seeing (me, too) now. MANY systems have done well since last summer for about 6 months (again, like me). My hope is expected for the subscriber's well-being and benefit. When this thing gets crunched... vendors are definitely going to be in the spotlight.
I've seen myself time and again make 50% in 4-6 months and just sit our in cash the others. And I will continue to do fine even if I bide my time in cash, churning trades (ytd XX.com), or spastic dd here and there (recent at C2) - to go back up the next 2-3 weeks. These DD's will all be made up - but I always try to keep these to a minimum.
Which brings us to our current situation.
.
I will express myself as I freely do and there is nothing 'wrong' with what I am doing. I know what to expect from myself and in good conscience I execute accordingly. That's not to say that there won't be those who post - for whatever reason - on ET or C2, that are basically negative.
I use this as an opportunity for myself to grow and all is fine. My trades at my site have racked up 50% for my subscribers to view in the past 52 weeks. Those that don't believe me and go the extra step to point things out that they see oppose this fact, simply are calling me a liar - but that is not my problem.
I still stand by C2 and the opportunity it will provide for me to execute a successful equity curve. If people hope to hinder my possibility in doing so with their posts - more power to them...but this will NOT be the case.
IOC was an extremely unique situtaion, and with the market dictating caution for my strategy...I've learned a bit this past week. Initially I was a little taken aback or 'gun-shy' to the point that I had to see for myself that the stock's decline was (more) 'stock-related' and not 'market-driven'. This 'faltering' basically caused me a delay of one day (since Friday) or maybe a few to basically get into another position.
Right now I have an abundance of excellent selections that are slightly more conservative to begin - once again - phasing back into the market. Usually I'm very conservative at this stage - when we are due for a correction, however I will continue to let the market be my guide and it says stay the course. I will be adding an 'extra' 2-3 positions - like ST suggested - at this juncture. Probably 1 every 3 days after 2 or one 'larger' one on Monday - instead of 1 'larger' one every 5 days...as the market allows - to perhaps be 'allowed' to get fully vested for JUL-AUG period...we shall see.
AKS, JADE and POZN were cut due to my caution in anticipation of a sharp market decline, as this likely would have erased my XX.com (at the time, 10-12%) YTD gains and I TRY TO
AVOID THIS. That was a moot point when IOC imploded quite unexpectedly (seems something like this ALWAYS happens despite my efforts...even still I did 'save' a couple of percentage points from losses). I'm still up 5% at XX.com
See DD is acceptable:
(and yes this has been ONE month at C2)
- but that is beside the point. I'm not trying to make a whole lot of money right now...I am trying to avoid losses. Either way after a correction, in 2-3 months I very easily go exponential. Were AKS, JADE, POZN or for that matter IOC bad to get into? No, but that's now over. Can I make gains from here? In this market - maybe. Until I unfold a modification to this strategy - which I soon will, I want to keep this one exact with what I've been training members for years at XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com. NO protective puts, no WOTM index spreads, etc. to minimize losses/juice gains. Excellent results will still unfold - but likely at the low end of returns due to late-bull market.
And yes, I 'could've' VERY EASILY saved 3% of the 7.5% IOC drawdown by simply going naked on the short option position and sell the stock first (the Jul 40's are currently quite worthless) - but again THIS FUND will stay within parameters given members thus far at XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com - stricly a 'covered' call fund.
The bottom line is I am egged on by inception with this fund at C2 - that initially led to marked drawdown. And then by all the unfolding 'negativity'. Should I change anything with my approach to management? Probably not. Will I? Yes, a bit (slight increase to positions - a bit more conservative (stronger stock/ a bit less volatile - but still a good 5-6% monthly return possible).
You see, I am content to sit and wait for the market to correct, since I know I will call the bottom within days and rack up some very substantial, impressive gains. For this strategy, I do this very easily. The main point for now - and some may learn from this - is to preserve (as much as possible) the previously compounded gains.
I know you haven't actually seen this and there are a handful of persons that are bent on seeing this never happen - because I am 'dishonest' (steal phrases for my own personal notes), am misleading 'newbie' investors, am encouraged I can do well with this interface - but I am a liar, won't, am just arrogant, conceited and self-decieved so let's keep reminding the masses - "I said I should make the top ten of C2 (stock) funds", over and over again and accomplish ????.
I've done a little study this past weekend and I've come up with some doozies. First off, many an investor has not experienced salvaging gains after they have been easily racked up. Take late 90's up until 2003. This period basically shell-shocked many an investor out of the game as their confidence was crushed. Long-term investing with dollar-cost averaging does work - hopefully they are still invested in this fashion. Personally, I think most should spend considerable time thinking how they are going to limit losses to their own funds instead of which system is racking up the quick buck right now.
We have been in an extended bull market since 2003. The easy gains have been made. Market cycles will eventually unfold that will allow for more subtantial gains to be made again - but in the meantime...many will get washed away with the tide and permanantly taken out the game.
That being said, C2 has been around a few years during this optimal period. I'm not exactly sure how many stock funds have even made money and still look attractive through the corrections - which we've had EACH YEAR. I've seen (cursory mind you - and my hat is off to them) Tango and Extreme-os and how they make money [up to 1/4 of fund daytraded (over 2 -3 days) - on stocks I (mostly) can't figure out why were picked, liquidity issues - not to mention timing, computer glitches, exteme drawdowns (individual stock positions) for minor gains etc.].
So these have survived 'scalping' $1,000 here and $1,000 there on $250,000 to rack up a nice 100% annual average. Seems last summer's correction was handled well enough but paltry gains this year (that might've compounded powerfully with this? apporach) and the choppy action they are seeing (me, too) now. MANY systems have done well since last summer for about 6 months (again, like me). My hope is expected for the subscriber's well-being and benefit. When this thing gets crunched... vendors are definitely going to be in the spotlight.
I've seen myself time and again make 50% in 4-6 months and just sit our in cash the others. And I will continue to do fine even if I bide my time in cash, churning trades (ytd XX.com), or spastic dd here and there (recent at C2) - to go back up the next 2-3 weeks. These DD's will all be made up - but I always try to keep these to a minimum.
Which brings us to our current situation.
.et al, we are staying the course.
Got 'lucky' with SNCR purchase yeserday. It went from 28.6 purchase to gap up and is about 33 or 3 bucks ITM. We always sell 'front month' call options up til 2 weeks before expiration. This provides the higher (daily/weekly) rate of return.
When these go ITM that is powerful since the position is just about actually realized (except for rare circumstances like the IOC debacle).
Anyway...if I was fully vested I could actually invest safely "on margin" with another position with this allocation. But for now it seems we are "rangebound" so I am being less aggressive, but still investing.
Ultimatley I feel the market will correct. Perhaps not as soon as I thought. With things so bullish for so long...the "recent" phase of investors probably think the only directions for stocks is up - and keep buying this market up (see late-90's).
So back to "Caution" mode for this covered call fund strategist now dictates to take perhaps less premium - safer plays ITM and spread out allocation a bit more.
Usually I go for the creme of covered call candidates with favorable market conditions. With a sideways to slight uptrending market (not all indexes have broken past overhead resistance) we are using some restraint. In other words, I like oustanding companies with the highest fundamentals and technical ratings AND the highest premiums. 8% for a 4 week holding is the normal target (not all are realized).
Now...with 2.5 weeks until expiration...the newest ITM positions - back into POZN, AKS and now HOKU - 2.75%/3.14%/6.13% with a better possibility of further drawdown will have to suffice.
Even still...once we correct (which we've done in EACH YEAR since 2003) I can call the bottom within days and ramp up an easy 20-60% i the ensuing few months. For now sustaining past gains is the strategy - with perhaps modest gains.
Of course most people (unknowingly) are looking to make a HUGE return in the next 6 months - without regard to what will happen to their money in these funds once the market tanks.
That is why I stand by my approach with covered calls - that no one I know is doing - that WILL "average" more than 50% over multi-years.
I know - not too attractive at this late stage of the "running bull" - but I think truly is THE MOST value amongst all standards.
Gilbert aka Paysense
Got 'lucky' with SNCR purchase yeserday. It went from 28.6 purchase to gap up and is about 33 or 3 bucks ITM. We always sell 'front month' call options up til 2 weeks before expiration. This provides the higher (daily/weekly) rate of return.
When these go ITM that is powerful since the position is just about actually realized (except for rare circumstances like the IOC debacle).
Anyway...if I was fully vested I could actually invest safely "on margin" with another position with this allocation. But for now it seems we are "rangebound" so I am being less aggressive, but still investing.
Ultimatley I feel the market will correct. Perhaps not as soon as I thought. With things so bullish for so long...the "recent" phase of investors probably think the only directions for stocks is up - and keep buying this market up (see late-90's).
So back to "Caution" mode for this covered call fund strategist now dictates to take perhaps less premium - safer plays ITM and spread out allocation a bit more.
Usually I go for the creme of covered call candidates with favorable market conditions. With a sideways to slight uptrending market (not all indexes have broken past overhead resistance) we are using some restraint. In other words, I like oustanding companies with the highest fundamentals and technical ratings AND the highest premiums. 8% for a 4 week holding is the normal target (not all are realized).
Now...with 2.5 weeks until expiration...the newest ITM positions - back into POZN, AKS and now HOKU - 2.75%/3.14%/6.13% with a better possibility of further drawdown will have to suffice.
Even still...once we correct (which we've done in EACH YEAR since 2003) I can call the bottom within days and ramp up an easy 20-60% i the ensuing few months. For now sustaining past gains is the strategy - with perhaps modest gains.
Of course most people (unknowingly) are looking to make a HUGE return in the next 6 months - without regard to what will happen to their money in these funds once the market tanks.
That is why I stand by my approach with covered calls - that no one I know is doing - that WILL "average" more than 50% over multi-years.
I know - not too attractive at this late stage of the "running bull" - but I think truly is THE MOST value amongst all standards.
Gilbert aka Paysense
...in keeping with my 'training spirit' mentality:
after the IOC debacle, losses were contained - and we've since continued to phase into Jul covered call positions.
At this stage, we are being a bit more diverse - or cautious, to now be fully vested into 7 positions or a couple more than usual.
At my 'training institute' we have averaged more than 50% annually with my approach to covered call fund management and in fact have gained almost 50% over the last 52 weeks. All this done managing up to 4-6 positions - even with larger accounts.
However, going with IOC - a good company - with very high call option premiums, we felt comfortable with 200 shrs at $38 (instead of 100) in our 20K+ model portfolio. At C2 we went with 200 x 5 or 1000 shrs, since it is a $100k account. This was 35% of our portfolio so the 7% drawdown was a bit unexpected.
Nevertheless, we've since made good headway to recoup the losses - which can be done rather quickly, mind you.
We will try to solidify this ytd 9-10% return in the next 7 days and hopefully be able to add another 4-5% in August to begin outperforming the major averages (per our recent - late-stage bull - norm) in the second half of the year...without too many headaches
Again - in keeping with ET policy, I am not posting my url (which I'm sure can be found easily enough for one to view more performance charts).
The idea is not to generate more subscribers to actually be trained into becoming fund managers or to 'autotrade' with me at Collective2.com, but to formulate ideas and discuss how my successes can be extrapolated into larger funds (liquidity issues, comparative annual returns/risk examples, PM's regarding test accounts, etc.)
paysense
after the IOC debacle, losses were contained - and we've since continued to phase into Jul covered call positions.
At this stage, we are being a bit more diverse - or cautious, to now be fully vested into 7 positions or a couple more than usual.
At my 'training institute' we have averaged more than 50% annually with my approach to covered call fund management and in fact have gained almost 50% over the last 52 weeks. All this done managing up to 4-6 positions - even with larger accounts.
However, going with IOC - a good company - with very high call option premiums, we felt comfortable with 200 shrs at $38 (instead of 100) in our 20K+ model portfolio. At C2 we went with 200 x 5 or 1000 shrs, since it is a $100k account. This was 35% of our portfolio so the 7% drawdown was a bit unexpected.
Nevertheless, we've since made good headway to recoup the losses - which can be done rather quickly, mind you.
We will try to solidify this ytd 9-10% return in the next 7 days and hopefully be able to add another 4-5% in August to begin outperforming the major averages (per our recent - late-stage bull - norm) in the second half of the year...without too many headaches
Again - in keeping with ET policy, I am not posting my url (which I'm sure can be found easily enough for one to view more performance charts).
The idea is not to generate more subscribers to actually be trained into becoming fund managers or to 'autotrade' with me at Collective2.com, but to formulate ideas and discuss how my successes can be extrapolated into larger funds (liquidity issues, comparative annual returns/risk examples, PM's regarding test accounts, etc.)
paysense
-musings:
Can I put myself out there?
I'm still invested (some) long.
Can I limit losses on spreads (yes, see ET).
Is there is room for making mistakes - always if manager is good.
So, my funds will still be fine - regardless!
Man this has been some rocky-going - but I've learned A LOT.
How to leverage with spreads, investing with outside (the idiots) pressures, being "right", but frustrated - that leads to errors, diversify a bit more, let short call options go naked after stock hits stop-loss, use stops/pro puts w/ riskier issues re: biotechs, stick to stop-loss methods - NO MATTER WHAT (or it will cost), stay away from erroneous (stinking) thinking, make money in up or down markets, lock in 'slippery' money, be VERY selective with entries into late stage bull runs, first watch price/volume action then watch market leaders, wait to post "Caution" - but do trade appropriately, etc., The managing is the hard part weekend work is a breeze.
But above all else - it doesn't matter. By being present to work at minimizing losses, substantial gains will be compounded.
And thank God I am (still) being trained!!!
Run it (C2) like a hedge fund.
Silver lining? Yes!
Stick with proven stop-loss methods.
They won't ever understand how these gains are made.
Can start C2 Covered Call Fund for large account (Use 50-100+ priced stocks - not to sync with XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com holdings.
Mistakes (since IOC debacle) - could've saved $320 in Classic and Pro Fund with FCSX or about 1.5% of fund if stopped at breakeven target (56.3) and not 'rolled up' to 65's.
Could've saved $750 (+$320=$1070) in Pro Fund with JADE or about 5% of fund.
Could've saved $1600 in C2 with FCSX, $2520 with JADE and $4540 with TASR + $350 with DIGE (option trade mistake) + $450 (option trade mistake) with JADE = $9,460 or more than 9%!!
Add that to IOC short call option that expired worthless or +$3,000 and we have another easy 3% less in drawdown. Ross you keep with your crap, but the only reason I feel comfortable allowing for 10-20% drop is (see my charts) gains off bottoms are significant, quick and substantial - easily making this up so what do you know?
So Classic and Pro Fund "could be" at +8% vs +6.5%/+3% for Classic/Pro YTD...C2 -8% (or perhaps -5% with IOC option) vs -15%.
You see, the point is to make 40-60% "average" annual gains over the long haul by minimizing losses/ ramping up gains (and understanding trading/markets). How many C2 accounts can you honestly say have proven this - they couldn't, since C2 hasn't been around that long - and your (and others) rantings are pointless. You, et al are like "I'm not seeing the account go up strongly like I'm used to so I can blast the vendor", lol.
EITHER MY MUSINGS ARE ONCE AGAIN DEAD-WRONG and I am a 'contrarian indicator' or our day to shine is not (too) distant.
Tuesday:
It's all red today (at least in the early going).
After gapping lower at the open...indexes stabilize.
Look to sell on up tick/days.
FCSX holding at support ~54.
CVTX up - close it out.
Vix/Vxn jumping MORE.
TASR downgrade knocks stock lower.
All you need to know right now is - despite Vix/Vxn - JASO/FCSX holding firm at support [35.30/54.30].
Sold JASO on uptick at 36. TSL spikes back up to 65- unwound to lock in gain.
CROX/PRKR are doing ok. Market is still well above support. Volume has been light.
JADE 8 (C2 breakeven 10)/TASR 15.5 C2 breakeven 17.5) will (maybe) get better price to sell calls/stock.
If distribution days stack up quickly again - reduce margin/unwind with stop-losses.
FCSX/JADE/TASR in drawdown at C2!
At midday, indexes are off lows. Volume is now tracking higher across the board.
Heavy-volume gainers (accumulation of leading stocks) were in short supply
FCSX remains at support volume rel. light. Sell call tomorrow (or late today on uptick).
FCSX STOPPED at 53.
ITM buy prospect SNCR (36.5 x 3.7) looks good - WAIT.
Market once again looks technically bereft on heavy trade with many concerns.
Support for market breaks - had (prior) unwound CROX (near today's high) on strong uptick to lock in the gain.
With market tanking - did WOTM QQQ index spread trade (8K+).
Indexes falling today more than any previous loss (or gain) with support levels now getting breached.
Took profits with spike in CROX and TSL. 3 and 4% gain for 2 and 3 trading day holding, respectively.
Last week we saw 2 distribution days out of 3 and today we are seeing another!
The market can't take too many days that stack up with heavy selling.
So how much selling with extreme volatility can the market take - and with institutional (market leaders) favorites AAPL (-8.83/-6.13%), RIMM (-8.73/-3.8%), GOOG (up today, but recently tanked - is 8% off highs), (-4.88, but its recent 20%+ drubbing in sympathy with GOOG) BIDU, MA (-8.83/-5.27%) to finally get hit?
We saw that today...DJIA (-226.47/1.62%), Nasdaq (-50.72/1.89%), S&P 500 (-30.53/1.98%)
Meanwhile, Google ended a four-day losing streak, but barely. The mega-cap poked up 1.19 to 513.70.
Amazon (AMZN) fell 2.48 to 69.26. But the stock exploded to a new 52-week high after hours in response to a great earnings report.
This is now fun (index spread with QQQ/covered calls) - making money off the correction (profiting from good and bad markets).
Only question left: Is there enough resolve amongst buyers to PICK THINGS UP AGAIN off breached support/50-day M.A.'s??
The market has been telling us (pre-C2) and now to stay on the sidelines - until we got (time and again) surges off lows in heavy trade (institutional buying). So we buy and then unwind at our stop-loss, etc., etc. to incur seemingly unnecessary drawdown.
WOTM index spread trades (at ET) also had to be unwound. Perhaps the market will now behave (we get it "right") since THIS TIME market leaders are beginining to technically break down.
I think the market had told us correctly - it was time to correct. Big-money managers either got it wrong and manipulated this market 2 or 3 times back up so they could safely lock in gains/avoid heavy losses - or just got lucky. And we may now have it our way, since they (institutional investors) seem ready to correct.
But I could be wrong and will continue to not predict, but follow the market's lead - since all will be eventually (as in the past) substantially be made up and more.
Volume today was MUCH higher (spirited) than even Friday's options expiration-driven trade. 2.5B+ on the Nasdaq/4B+ on the NYSE!
From now on I will run this fund (C2) like a hedge fund. When we get the occasional stock-specific haircut from a highly-rated holding - go naked on the call option (don't buy back before selling the stock) and let it go worthless or become very cheap. With market-driven corrections, will use WOTM index spreads to (recoup/enhance) profits.
Is the summer correction here? Maybe. If so there may be a silver lining.
Meanwhile, AMZN up 13% after-hours on strong earnings. JADE up more than 4%.
Depending on the morrow, perhaps we need to go back to "Caution" mode to perhaps soon be in "Stop-Losses" mode.
If this market tanks further Vix/Vxn will skyrocket.
The S&P 500 and New York composite indexes broke under their 50-day moving averages, as did a slew of stocks.
Losing stocks led decliners by about 5-to-1 on the Nasdaq and by nearly 9-to-1 on the NYSE
Funny how in the day every holding in my watchlist is in the red - while in the after-hours the market is all green (albeit modestly).
We'll just have to wait-and-see from here. I failed my own stop-loss methods with FCSX,JADE and TASR.
You may not believe it, but THIS HAS been the "perfect storm". Get in at C2 to hopefully stave off initial drops, but market says close initial phase into positions (always a loss) for a 3.5% haircut. Then (not soon after getting expected/biotech 'stock-specific' DNDN drop at KC.com) we get clipped from IOC - for still no apparent cause. Then the market says NO we are confirming institutional sponsorship/new highs-breakout) get invested man with some margin. Ross et al (who know nothing) spur the anxiety and in frustration let a few losers ride until now (of course, lol) FORCED TO UNWIND. Will things be different (not much I think from the past) this time. Perhaps with summer/ market leaders susceptibility - who knows?
Meanwhile...everyone thinks LIFE is a day in the sun (lol). Loving the funds that go straight up over 6-18 months (with serious leverage). "Someday" we will see just how good these managers are.
Substantial gains off a strong corrective bottom will not be experienced until we do. So can 8-15% be made up? Yes. Is there any more to this "perfect storm"? Maybe, but I doubt it. It's all been seen before.
-"official":
Week of July 28, 2007
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Close
Market tumbles as leaders slide and volume increased from Monday's totals - making for a distribution days in the major indexes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 226.47 points, or 1.62% to 13,716.95.
The Nasdaq Composite tanked 50.72 points, or 1.89% to 2,639.86.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 30.53 points, or 1.98% to 2,639.86.
So what does all this look like (as of last Friday: Pro Fund):
C2 Fund 15% off Jun 1st value or $25,585.
Can I put myself out there?
I'm still invested (some) long.
Can I limit losses on spreads (yes, see ET).
Is there is room for making mistakes - always if manager is good.
So, my funds will still be fine - regardless!
Man this has been some rocky-going - but I've learned A LOT.
How to leverage with spreads, investing with outside (the idiots) pressures, being "right", but frustrated - that leads to errors, diversify a bit more, let short call options go naked after stock hits stop-loss, use stops/pro puts w/ riskier issues re: biotechs, stick to stop-loss methods - NO MATTER WHAT (or it will cost), stay away from erroneous (stinking) thinking, make money in up or down markets, lock in 'slippery' money, be VERY selective with entries into late stage bull runs, first watch price/volume action then watch market leaders, wait to post "Caution" - but do trade appropriately, etc., The managing is the hard part weekend work is a breeze.
But above all else - it doesn't matter. By being present to work at minimizing losses, substantial gains will be compounded.
And thank God I am (still) being trained!!!
Run it (C2) like a hedge fund.
Silver lining? Yes!
Stick with proven stop-loss methods.
They won't ever understand how these gains are made.
Can start C2 Covered Call Fund for large account (Use 50-100+ priced stocks - not to sync with XxxxxxxXxxxxxx.com holdings.
Mistakes (since IOC debacle) - could've saved $320 in Classic and Pro Fund with FCSX or about 1.5% of fund if stopped at breakeven target (56.3) and not 'rolled up' to 65's.
Could've saved $750 (+$320=$1070) in Pro Fund with JADE or about 5% of fund.
Could've saved $1600 in C2 with FCSX, $2520 with JADE and $4540 with TASR + $350 with DIGE (option trade mistake) + $450 (option trade mistake) with JADE = $9,460 or more than 9%!!
Add that to IOC short call option that expired worthless or +$3,000 and we have another easy 3% less in drawdown. Ross you keep with your crap, but the only reason I feel comfortable allowing for 10-20% drop is (see my charts) gains off bottoms are significant, quick and substantial - easily making this up so what do you know?
So Classic and Pro Fund "could be" at +8% vs +6.5%/+3% for Classic/Pro YTD...C2 -8% (or perhaps -5% with IOC option) vs -15%.
You see, the point is to make 40-60% "average" annual gains over the long haul by minimizing losses/ ramping up gains (and understanding trading/markets). How many C2 accounts can you honestly say have proven this - they couldn't, since C2 hasn't been around that long - and your (and others) rantings are pointless. You, et al are like "I'm not seeing the account go up strongly like I'm used to so I can blast the vendor", lol.
EITHER MY MUSINGS ARE ONCE AGAIN DEAD-WRONG and I am a 'contrarian indicator' or our day to shine is not (too) distant.
Tuesday:
It's all red today (at least in the early going).
After gapping lower at the open...indexes stabilize.
Look to sell on up tick/days.
FCSX holding at support ~54.
CVTX up - close it out.
Vix/Vxn jumping MORE.
TASR downgrade knocks stock lower.
All you need to know right now is - despite Vix/Vxn - JASO/FCSX holding firm at support [35.30/54.30].
Sold JASO on uptick at 36. TSL spikes back up to 65- unwound to lock in gain.
CROX/PRKR are doing ok. Market is still well above support. Volume has been light.
JADE 8 (C2 breakeven 10)/TASR 15.5 C2 breakeven 17.5) will (maybe) get better price to sell calls/stock.
If distribution days stack up quickly again - reduce margin/unwind with stop-losses.
FCSX/JADE/TASR in drawdown at C2!
At midday, indexes are off lows. Volume is now tracking higher across the board.
Heavy-volume gainers (accumulation of leading stocks) were in short supply
FCSX remains at support volume rel. light. Sell call tomorrow (or late today on uptick).
FCSX STOPPED at 53.
ITM buy prospect SNCR (36.5 x 3.7) looks good - WAIT.
Market once again looks technically bereft on heavy trade with many concerns.
Support for market breaks - had (prior) unwound CROX (near today's high) on strong uptick to lock in the gain.
With market tanking - did WOTM QQQ index spread trade (8K+).
Indexes falling today more than any previous loss (or gain) with support levels now getting breached.
Took profits with spike in CROX and TSL. 3 and 4% gain for 2 and 3 trading day holding, respectively.
Last week we saw 2 distribution days out of 3 and today we are seeing another!
The market can't take too many days that stack up with heavy selling.
So how much selling with extreme volatility can the market take - and with institutional (market leaders) favorites AAPL (-8.83/-6.13%), RIMM (-8.73/-3.8%), GOOG (up today, but recently tanked - is 8% off highs), (-4.88, but its recent 20%+ drubbing in sympathy with GOOG) BIDU, MA (-8.83/-5.27%) to finally get hit?
We saw that today...DJIA (-226.47/1.62%), Nasdaq (-50.72/1.89%), S&P 500 (-30.53/1.98%)
Meanwhile, Google ended a four-day losing streak, but barely. The mega-cap poked up 1.19 to 513.70.
Amazon (AMZN) fell 2.48 to 69.26. But the stock exploded to a new 52-week high after hours in response to a great earnings report.
This is now fun (index spread with QQQ/covered calls) - making money off the correction (profiting from good and bad markets).
Only question left: Is there enough resolve amongst buyers to PICK THINGS UP AGAIN off breached support/50-day M.A.'s??
The market has been telling us (pre-C2) and now to stay on the sidelines - until we got (time and again) surges off lows in heavy trade (institutional buying). So we buy and then unwind at our stop-loss, etc., etc. to incur seemingly unnecessary drawdown.
WOTM index spread trades (at ET) also had to be unwound. Perhaps the market will now behave (we get it "right") since THIS TIME market leaders are beginining to technically break down.
I think the market had told us correctly - it was time to correct. Big-money managers either got it wrong and manipulated this market 2 or 3 times back up so they could safely lock in gains/avoid heavy losses - or just got lucky. And we may now have it our way, since they (institutional investors) seem ready to correct.
But I could be wrong and will continue to not predict, but follow the market's lead - since all will be eventually (as in the past) substantially be made up and more.
Volume today was MUCH higher (spirited) than even Friday's options expiration-driven trade. 2.5B+ on the Nasdaq/4B+ on the NYSE!
From now on I will run this fund (C2) like a hedge fund. When we get the occasional stock-specific haircut from a highly-rated holding - go naked on the call option (don't buy back before selling the stock) and let it go worthless or become very cheap. With market-driven corrections, will use WOTM index spreads to (recoup/enhance) profits.
Is the summer correction here? Maybe. If so there may be a silver lining.
Meanwhile, AMZN up 13% after-hours on strong earnings. JADE up more than 4%.
Depending on the morrow, perhaps we need to go back to "Caution" mode to perhaps soon be in "Stop-Losses" mode.
If this market tanks further Vix/Vxn will skyrocket.
The S&P 500 and New York composite indexes broke under their 50-day moving averages, as did a slew of stocks.
Losing stocks led decliners by about 5-to-1 on the Nasdaq and by nearly 9-to-1 on the NYSE
Funny how in the day every holding in my watchlist is in the red - while in the after-hours the market is all green (albeit modestly).
We'll just have to wait-and-see from here. I failed my own stop-loss methods with FCSX,JADE and TASR.
You may not believe it, but THIS HAS been the "perfect storm". Get in at C2 to hopefully stave off initial drops, but market says close initial phase into positions (always a loss) for a 3.5% haircut. Then (not soon after getting expected/biotech 'stock-specific' DNDN drop at KC.com) we get clipped from IOC - for still no apparent cause. Then the market says NO we are confirming institutional sponsorship/new highs-breakout) get invested man with some margin. Ross et al (who know nothing) spur the anxiety and in frustration let a few losers ride until now (of course, lol) FORCED TO UNWIND. Will things be different (not much I think from the past) this time. Perhaps with summer/ market leaders susceptibility - who knows?
Meanwhile...everyone thinks LIFE is a day in the sun (lol). Loving the funds that go straight up over 6-18 months (with serious leverage). "Someday" we will see just how good these managers are.
Substantial gains off a strong corrective bottom will not be experienced until we do. So can 8-15% be made up? Yes. Is there any more to this "perfect storm"? Maybe, but I doubt it. It's all been seen before.
-"official":
Week of July 28, 2007
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Close
Market tumbles as leaders slide and volume increased from Monday's totals - making for a distribution days in the major indexes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 226.47 points, or 1.62% to 13,716.95.
The Nasdaq Composite tanked 50.72 points, or 1.89% to 2,639.86.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 30.53 points, or 1.98% to 2,639.86.
So what does all this look like (as of last Friday: Pro Fund):
C2 Fund 15% off Jun 1st value or $25,585.
Since I doubt many will bother to read that long post lets just summarize where you stand on C2:
Trades 44
Profitable 20
Losses 24
Win % 45.5%
Cumu $ ($17,340)
after typical commission ($18,020)
Avg Win $998
Avg Loss $1,554
Profit Factor 0.5:1
P/L per unit ($14.59)
after typical commission ($15.17)
Sharpe Ratio -4.745
Max Drawdown 15.64% (20070530 to 20070724)
Trades 44
Profitable 20
Losses 24
Win % 45.5%
Cumu $ ($17,340)
after typical commission ($18,020)
Avg Win $998
Avg Loss $1,554
Profit Factor 0.5:1
P/L per unit ($14.59)
after typical commission ($15.17)
Sharpe Ratio -4.745
Max Drawdown 15.64% (20070530 to 20070724)
Maybe this will slow down the lengthy posts from our resident fund manager here.
Previously in this thread he stated that he had a 15% drawdown in 2004 (presumably his worst), I suspect he will be setting a new drawdown record shortly.
Funny how when held to a non-fudgeable accounting at C2, many folks historical claims of greatness aren't reproducible. Must be Murphy's Law.
Funny how when held to a non-fudgeable accounting at C2, many folks historical claims of greatness aren't reproducible. Must be Murphy's Law.
- Status