Making trading calls is futile imo

[themickey]

Please elaborate on what you mean by "time action".
Time can be broken down into two factors: 1) Timing the entries and exits and 2) the duration of price move. Here, #1 is already baked into price, while #2 is not (although I could argue that it is).
Then there's 3) utilizing different time frames. But that's for another topic
Needless to say, I'm glad you've made this discovery. This is not an easy concept to grasp.

There are yet more 'times'.......
There is 'tick tock' time as in eg 1:00pm
There is calendar time (date) as in eg 15th August.
There is lookback time as in eg 52 weeks or 20 days as in found moving averages or a rolling 5 day week or 22 day rolling month etc.

 

[schizo]

time based data - any analysis that involves time is false, as time is only mans way of trying to make sense of something he doesn't understand.

Time is not real.

Well, it's kinda pointless to even argue with you on this.

Sure, time is a complete figment of imagination but we still need to get up to go to work by 9, and step into a meeting by 10, then run out to meet a client by 11 and take your kid out to lunch at noon, blah blah blah.

BTW money is just a piece of useless paper. Yeah, knock yourself out on that one.

 

[schizo]

There are yet more 'times'.......
There is 'tick tock' time as in eg 1:00pm
There is calendar time (date) as in eg 15th August.
There is lookback time as in eg 52 weeks or 20 days as in found moving averages or a rolling 5 day week or 22 day rolling month etc.

Why not also include those times when you need to step aside to defecate in peace?

 

[themickey]

Why not also include those times when you need to step aside to defecate in peace?

Yup there is that too.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Do you need a predictive model to day trade if your strategy is trend following?

I'd say a great trend following system (which gets in early and gets out late) is the superior trading system. Especially if it can recognize range bound behavior and can sideline then in order to not get chopped up as most trend following systems invariably do in range bound conditions.

The ultimate trading system would be one that exploits both trends and ranges. Let's call it the holy grail. Anyone who have something like that would obviously not need anything else.

Now, back to predictive modeling or statistical TA if we can call it that instead.

What I do know is that my system allows me to perceive and analyze the markets in a way that's literally impossible if your only input is a chart or an indicator reading. I spent probably 5+ years developing it and it's still a work in progress, as unlike Mickey Mouse, I won't claim to have all the answers. Best to keep an open mind, stay humble and keep learning.

For today, barring any news shocks (ME, etc.), I know that today will most likely see a medium/large rally on the US indices (ES/NQ). This was known before the Globex Open and posted elsewhere in advance (ES-Journal). I like 5400/5410 as an initial target on ES with the possibillity it just keeps going.

What I don't know is if we'd see a gap down or gap up open on RTH, so my strategy for today was to long the Globex Open on small size in case the market ran straight out of the gate. I took a small loss on my initial entry and then went long again close to the swing low on both ES/NQ - still using small size, but have now added a bit to my original position on the way. I will add more contracts on the Open if the market acts as expected within my prediction.

It now looks like a gap up open that will breakout higher. If I'm dead wrong (it's only probabilities, right), I won't lose much and may even secure a small win. If I'm right, it will be a massive pay day.

PS: I don't heavily rely on charts per se, but I do of course use them. Mostly, I'm concerned with capturing the move from A to B. And there can be a ton of random zig zagging between the two.

 

[BuzzTrader]

zero lag - can be accomplished simply by using recent historical on current and future forming data.

time based data - any analysis that involves time is false, as time is only mans way of trying to make sense of something he doesn't understand.

Time is not real.

Surely the bananas in your fridge don’t have a rate or decay. You eat your bananas Brown?

 

[MarkBrown]

The crux of the thread was not to be about predicting, reacting, or even about probabilities.
The idea was about trading uncertainty and making trading calls was futile because it's often fleeting.

One moment your call was right, next moment its wrong, then, hello, it's right again then wrong again......

If you stay in the position long enough, sooner or later you'll be right. Genuis!

to get back on track - a skilled trader will know what to do when he's right and more importantly what he will do if he's wrong - Prior to placing a trade.

everything should be thought out in advance before it happens. this is genius.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

to get back on track - a skilled trader will know what to do when he's right and more importantly what he will do if he's wrong - Prior to placing a trade.

everything should be thought out in advance before it happens. this is genius.

Good Morning Mark,

You are correct

The is the upmost important thing I work on in my trading. And it's a continuous process of planning and doing.

And it's all fun.

 

[MACD]

Good Morning Mark,

You are correct

The is the upmost important thing I work on in my trading. And it's a continuous process of planning and doing.

And it's all fun.

"The is the upmost important thing I work on in my trading. And it's a continuous process of planning and doing.

And it's all fun." and Sure Enough @SimpleMeLike is on his road to $1,000,000 !

 

[SimpleMeLike]

"The is the upmost important thing I work on in my trading. And it's a continuous process of planning and doing.

And it's all fun." and Sure Enough @SimpleMeLike is on his road to $1,000,000 !

Hello MACD,

Yes sir, that is my goal man. A lot of work too. Currently in drawdown of $2200 today, so I have a lot of work to do the next hour of the ES market.

I be back going get my losses back.