Making trading calls is futile imo

themickey said:
Reactive trades are kind of safe trades, you wait for a number of conditions to line up as per your trading system
More...

I saw a service years ago... I think it's Wave 59 (still around, last I checked)... with the same premise. That is... It tracked 9 variables, and when 5 lined up bullish, that's a buy. When 5 lined up bearish, that's a sell. Problem.... it's slow... takes a while for enough of the indicators to "get over to one side of the boat". Other problem is that you had to use their data source for it to work.
 
Last edited:
mathematically it's possible to know with some certainty what paths, price will take.

it's not easy because indicators have lag and time based data is a beast of it's own.
 
MarkBrown said:
mathematically it's possible to know with some certainty what paths, price will take.
it's not easy because indicators have lag and time based data is a beast of it's own.
More...
Yeah, but you don't need indicators and if using PA then no lag.
Nearly all TA is built on indicators and lag (ie) "react to price, don't predict."
Now there is a certain amount of truth in "react" theory but a reaction can also be 1 minute for a long term swing trader not using (for simplicities sake) a 20 day moving average which has a ~10 day lag.
So a 1 minute lag for a swing trader to react using no indicators is not imo really lagging.

How is time based data a beast?
 
Nearly all TA is built on indicators? My goodness. The ignorance on display here is impressive.

Obviously, the reason why some think prediction can't be done is because it's based on their own unsuccessful experience trying to do so. It's always good to keep an open mind as to what's possible and not.

A predictive model obviously requires hard data and numbers (which is what charts are made of and not the other way around). Looking at a chart and 'guessing' based on price formations, memory or indicators may not be very smart and even dumb.
 
themickey said:
Many will disagree
More...
i am one of them.... but it took me 18 years to find out what markets do ....AL Brooks said that market will markets try to do anything twice and if it fails then it will do the opposite.
it took me 18 years to understand what he means and see it on a price time chart and make trading decisions and trade well.
so it is not surprising that 99% of all financial market participants do not have a clue what is happening
 
padutrader said:
it is NOT price action but price and time action... both offers clues to the market action
More...
Please elaborate on what you mean by "time action".

Time can be broken down into two factors: 1) Timing the entries and exits and 2) the duration of price move. Here, #1 is already baked into price, while #2 is not (although I could argue that it is).

Then there's 3) utilizing different time frames. But that's for another topic

Needless to say, I'm glad you've made this discovery. This is not an easy concept to grasp. :)
 
Laissez Faire said:
Nearly all TA is built on indicators? My goodness. The ignorance on display here is impressive.

Obviously, the reason why some think prediction can't be done is because it's based on their own unsuccessful experience trying to do so. It's always good to keep an open mind as to what's possible and not.

A predictive model obviously requires hard data and numbers (which is what charts are made of and not the other way around). Looking at a chart and 'guessing' based on price formations, memory or indicators may not be very smart and even dumb.
More...
Do you need a predictive model to day trade if your strategy is trend following?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top