That guy seems to know something, or a lot. Though he talks about mean-reversion, which may not be more common than non-quickly reverting trends that may last shorter or longer periods. He does seem to look at put/call ratio and estimate gamma, but I didn’t find his method to evaluate them. There are websites estimating and publishing such info, but their owners aren’t billionaires, if even millionaires. Last week I read about someone making a huge multi-million dollar bearish bet buying OTM SPX put butterflies. Am I correct that they’d contribute to a large put ratio but carry small weight? And who knows how many bullish vs bearish put combos are being traded just on the put side, while also increasing put ratio?
So basically he might’ve been lucky, while his observations on how the markets move during the day vs afternoon vs overnight may work during some periods and not others. Everyone has strategies that work during some years.
But I like the guy and he seems to know what he’s doing, including managing risk. I’m just providing some thoughts on things I’d question or at least would want to know more about.
