Making of a method

[game]

Nov 13th

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

Yesterday's slow climb out of the Range accelerated ON to form a high at 4214. This was retested and price then reversed the majority of the ON move. It stopped at yesterday's high and has since been chopping.

2. Where is value?

Price is now almost at the UL of the Weekly TC. This week's UL is 4230, while next week's is 4250. The 60 min has shifted from a range to a TC. The mean is at 4184. VAP is at 4171.

3. How has the market been moving?

Daily Range, Volume and Points remain below average. A large part of the day's range is being created later in the session. However, the move from one value zone to another has been clean.

4. Potential Trades

1. Short retest/failure off 4214
2. Long up move off Open

 

[game]

Review:

Trade 1: The move off the opening compression was strong and price risk was not particularly high. I have to get better at differentiating between moves that take off upon entry versus those that show weakness right away. If the ret is well defined, there will generally be anticipatory buyers waiting for the next ret with their limit orders. Sellers will be aware of the strength and want to get out at BE. So I have room to give it time. Chances of a V Reversal slicing through this kind of strength are low. My current management structure accommodates this. Incorrect execution by moving stop to BE. As long as my entries are confident, these details will improve over time.


Trade 2: The complete sharp reversal of the prior upmove pointed towards overall weakness. Since I was shorting off the sharp rally at the 50% level of the downmove, I figured I had room to play the larger swing towards the mean of the 60 min TC. Once price reversed more than 50% of this second down leg, the short thesis was eroding. Got a chance to exit at a decent price once the case for a move back to 14 emerged.

 

[game]

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

The uptrend to the UL of the 60 min TC has stalled into chop. Stronger moves on both up and down sides were rejected and price is now in the middle of yesterday's range.

2. Where is value?

1 Day VAP is 4209. Mean of the TC is just below yesterday's low at 4190.

3. How has the market been moving?

Action has increased with longer, cleaner swings. Volume is back up.

4. Potential Trades

1. Short break of 4202
2. Long break of 4220

5. Recent errors to keep in mind

1. Be aware of SAR opps on rejections
2. Be aware of trade management once trade moves favorably upon entry

 

[game]

Review:

Trade 1: The strong rejection of the down move in combination with the larger trend being up led to seeking longs despite price being right on yesterday's VAP. Got a little carried away with the momentum and entered with high price risk. Realized the error and got out fast enough, though not immediately, which would have been the right decision.

Trade 2: Same reason as 1, but with much lower risk. Exit on break of momentum as the action wasn't looking like it would make a run.

Trade 3: Passed on opp to short as price fell back to 4209. There had been two rejections already. Short side was confirmed once price broke free of value without much struggle and there was space before potential buying came in around yesterday's low and today's prior low level of 98.


Weekly Themes:

1. Despite the grind up, the weekly environment was one of Range. There is a lack of clarity on when/how to use rejections off lateral levels to SAR into moves. The maximum hesitation is occurring in this area.

2. Entries have been confident. Direction is being seen well.

3. Some errors in managing around the entry pocket. But there is overall control.

4. Profitable trades are being held in accordance with the vision of playing the larger swings with low risk.

5. Confidence grows in being able to navigate an average opportunity environment without loss of control.

 

[game]

Nov 17th

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

Price is right below the UL of the weekly TC. It has been moving in a 32 pt range at this level for the last 2 days. ON action saw it move from the LL of the range back towards the mean. It is now in the middle of a tighter 8 pt range.

2. Where is value?

2 Day VAP is 4209.

3. How has the market been moving?

Rejection off the Range limits have led to good moves without price spending much time at the mean.

4. Potential Trades

1. Short off 4226
2. Long off 4198

5. Recent errors to keep in mind

Watch for SAR opportunities off rejections

 

[game]

Review:

Trade 1: The strong rejection off the PM range led to the decision to go long and position for potential break of the 30 pt range.

Trade 2 & 3: Long on potential move back towards value off Range limit and trend retest.

The largest move was the 33 point fall off 4224. While I can see some low risk entries to play this downmove, I want to err on the side of not playing swings within a Range unless there is overwhelming evidence via a rejection. In this case, there had been multiple rejections off both sides and I would have had to take various trades to eventually get on a trend move. I will come back to these swings eventually. For now, the goal is to err on the side of perceived quality.

 

[game]

Nov 18th

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

Price remains in a a tight 33 point range. Yesterday's down move was rejected back to the mean. ON action saw rejection on both sides. PM is climbing up.

2. Where is value?

VAP at 4209

3. How has the market been moving?

Pickup in points from yesterday.

4. Potential Trades

1. Wait for clarity at limits

 

[game]

 

[game]

Nov 19th

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

Price has broken out of the multi day Range via a trend move off yesterday's open. It is now right on the UL of the weekly TC. It is now positioned within a 20 point Range - between the UL of the previous Range and the retested highs of the Trend. ON was very flat and price is on the mean of the 20 pt range.

2. Where is value?

1 Day VAP is 4238. 50% of the upmove is 4246, which coincides with UL of previous Range

3. How has the market been moving?

4. Potential Trades

1. Long off 4228
2. Short off 4248

 

[game]