Making of a method

[game]

Nov 10th

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

The 5 day 50 point Range is intact. The ON attempt to move down was pushed back inside. PM action has been very dull.

2. Where is value?

4149/4154 zone is the VAP.

3. How has the market been moving?

Action over the past two days has been choppy. Friday's total points were low. There haven't been any clean swings within the Range. Price has been turning at the Open.

4. Potential Trades

1. Wait for clarity from Intra Day movement at Range limits.

 

[BonScott]

I just got back to reading the threads, and your prep work is really good.
I like the value areas, and the defined areas for trading long or short, or waiting for clarity.

 

[game]

Thanks Bon. I think we all are making good progress.

 

[game]

Review:

Trade 1: The upper limits of the Range was more well defined than the lower. The short was a bit premature, being taken before the limit was tested. Had there been more confusion, it would have been fine to use the intra day R and short before the test of the limit.

Since the short was not too far from the limit, it was likely that brief selling would appear at 79/80, just a little above my exit. But I erred on the side of getting out because I have no guidelines on how to manage this kind of movement.


Trade 2: Same as 1 in that there was no confusion as such. However, the positioning was much better, having being taken off the limit.
Combination of dull action and 64/49 as potential value kept me in the trade.


The PM R level of 64 is something to keep in mind for the future. Such levels within larger Ranges can provide good entry opps to play the movement towards the limit.

 

[game]

Nov 11th

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

Yesterday's move to test the UL of the Range did not fall back to the mean. Price moved sideways in the UL zone. It rose ON, creating a slightly HH and then a tight range of 9 points. It is now moving at the LL of this smaller range.

2. Where is value?

The sideways movement since yesterday has shifted immediate value higher. Mean of the smaller range is 4173. VAP of the larger 6 day range is 49/57

3. How has the market been moving?

The trend of low total points and volume continues.

4. Potential Trades

1. Long on break of 82
2. Wait on intra day clarity for the short side

 

[game]

Review:

Trade 1 & 2: Long on rejection of the downmove off yesterday's breakout level of 64.

Another option was to SAR off the rejection. I hesitated here. This happened last week as well. In a ranging environment where dullness and chop are expected, I have to take advantage of these rejection surges to position for low price risk.

 

[game]

Nov 12th

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

Price has been moving down from the high made at yesterday's close. An ON attempt to retest was rejected and price has since been chopping at 70.

2. Where is value?

VAP of the multi day range is at 51. VAP of the smaller range is at 71.

3. How has the market been moving?

Remains dull with few opportunities after the initial few moves.

4. Potential Trades

1. Wait for clarity

 

[Gringo]

Wait for clarity.

Magical.

 

[k p]

Magical.

LOL... I know what clarity looks like after the fact. I can always tell you where the trade should have been about 2 or 3 minutes later!

I do get what game is saying though... nothing looks good!

I'm actually enjoying reading game lay out the plan, and then to see his chart after to see if he did in fact buy or sell after price broke a level he was watching. He cheated today by leaving his plan wide open!

 

[game]

Review:

Trade 1 & 2: Early upward push and strong rejection of down thrust, confirmed the upward drift in value occurring over the last few days. While price was still inside the larger range, value was pushing against the UL and the longs were well positioned to play the break out of the Range.

Price reversed at the UL and fell back to VAP of smaller Range. It then turned up sharp off this level. This was unexpected. I don't have any plans to go long on such movement. Once price reached the highs with strong momentum, there were no further trades on new highs, given the recent dullness over the last few days. This was confirmed as price moved sideways with slow pace, ruling out any shorts back into value. Price is likely to continue to drift higher.