Making of a method

[game]

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

The slight weakness in the larger uptrend reversed on 30th, and has climbed 120 points since then. The HH on Friday reversed and price has been consolidating since then. ON action was sideways, although there has been a recent PM surge to test the High.

2. Where is value?

Price is on the UL of the 60 min TC, where it has been consolidating in an irregular 30 point range.

4103 is the level from where it surged on the ON of the 30th. This is also the 50% level of the climb since the lows of the 30th.

3. How has the market been moving? (Open type, 5 & 60 min Range, 10 pt swings, Total pts)

Friday's action was on the duller side. A slight pick up PM.

4. Potential Trades

1. Short Failure on up move

 

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Review:

Trade 2: Once price broke the PM High and refused an immediate rejection, there was a very good case for taking the long. The expected was not happening. Got a little careless in sitting back after the first short did not work, instead of actively looking for confirmation of the up line. The long eventually taken is not something I have a lot of confidence in.

Trade 3: As price retraced the majority of the up move off the open, there was good potential for a large downside move, as price was at the UL of the 60 min TC. Gave it room till a HL instead of DL break.

The overall dull environment led to sizing all trades at the minimum. If I can keep up the confidence and consistency, then skill in the sizing of trades will be crucial in determining overall performance.

 

[game]

Nov 4th

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

Last two days have been of balance. ON attempt at a high reversed 23 pts and price is now towards the lower limits of the irregular range formed at the top of the prior strong upmove. While the strong uptrend is showing signs of weakness, there is no clear line besides a slight down drift of value.

2. Where is value?

After reversing off the top of the 60 min TC, price is back at the mean. It is currently just below the mean of the irregular 35+/- range.

3. How has the market been moving?

Yesterday's action was dull with a narrow range and few opportunities. Keep size small unless movement picks up substantially.

4. Potential Trades

1. Short break of 4142
2. Long off 4102

 

[game]

 

[game]

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

The trend is up. Price is now 54 points from yesterday's lows, with 34 of those points coming from ON action. Currently moving sideways just below the high of 74.

2. Where is value?

Price is back on the mean of the sharp 60 min TC. VAP from 31st onwards is 4149.

3. How has the market been moving?

While the pace remains on the dull side, yesterday was a 100+ pt day.

4. Potential Trades

1. Long on new Highs
2. Short Failure at new Highs

 

[game]

Review:

Trade 1: There wasn't enough violence in the movement for the SAR long.

The thrust for a new high occurred just minutes before the Open and price reversed hard right away. There wasn't any upside exploration post open. Just couldn't find an opp to SAR short.

Once the down movement began, joining the move would mean shorting through past value. I am going to have to miss these potential trend moves through past value, unless the original failure is so convincing that it overrides the caution suggested by value. There was no clarity for such an override today.

Price reached VAP and reversed. The movement had been fairly sharp. The reversal wasn't strong. And while the movement became dull, overall weakness was confirmed once momentum broke and pace increased slightly to the downside. A short off 55 with small size would have been the best trade for the day. The hesitation occurred because the trade was occurring at past value. But the dynamic had changed to trend. If past value is stopping me from trend continuation, then joining the trend with a low price risk entry is the best option. If the trend continues through value, I am in. If it does not, the potential for sharp adverse movement is low.

 

[game]

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

The uptrend on the daily has slowed into an irregular 56 point Range, although most of the trading has occurred in a narrower 34 point zone. A strong PM spike has occurred to put price back in the middle.

2. Where is value?

While momentum has been slowing, the initial sharpness of the 60 min TC remains intact, with price remaining inside it. VAP for the Range remains at 4149.

3. How has the market been moving?

Yesterday was a 100 plus point day with clean swings. Pace picks up on the swings and then immediately reverts to dullness.

4. Potential Trades

1. Wait for intra day action to test the upper limit

 

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Besides the short on the break of 34, the only other quality trade was the SAR long off the Failure to break down. Once I have cemented a certain consistency in taking only the most obvious trades, I can start using minimum size to play a bit looser on these reversals off failures.

 

[game]

1. What is the Trend and how did we get here?

The climb since the Failure to breakdown early yesterday made a slightly higher high ON at 78. PM action saw a sharp retest of the high followed by a sharp rejection. Price is now in the middle of the 16 point PM Range. The clear rejection at the highs shifts the line more towards weakness than strength.

2. Where is value?

4149 remains as the mean of the lateral range. 4155 is the 50% level of yesterday's up move and the level from which price accelerated yesterday in late session.

3. How has the market been moving?

Action with the range remains choppy. Rejections off the limits have been sharp.

4. Potential Trades

1. Short Retest/Failure of 80
2. Long on new Highs
3. Short break of 62

 

[game]

Review:

Trade 1: Too aggressive an entry on the momentum press here. The downswing was occurring within a well established Range. Nobody had much to lose. Less chance of cascade. Blowback was expected.

Weekly Themes:

1. Confidence continues it's upswing. Prep is working. I am seeing the major line as it changes. Referencing price's position with respect to potential value had led to a decrease in activity. There is more clarity in when and where to enter to play the bigger swings.

2. The trade management process continues to be robust.

3. Nov 5th was a good example of clean moves occurring within past value. An example of letting go of value bias once trend is confirmed.

4. ON/PM action is setting up good trades. Starting the session earlier is something to consider.

5. Stat work needs to be done on compelling trades at Range limits.

6. Nothing major needs to be changed or overly optimized. The structure is sound. I know I can trade size as confidence in each area increases.