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Making of a method
- Thread starter game
- Start date
Someone took a paintball gun and fired it all over your chart!!!
I love how you keep taking trades Game. Do you add points? Or did I already ask you? Seems like here you are still way ahead, even adding in commissions and the loss on the scratches. And if you are adding, do you have a daily summary or weekly that you are keeping track of?
I love how you keep taking trades Game. Do you add points? Or did I already ask you? Seems like here you are still way ahead, even adding in commissions and the loss on the scratches. And if you are adding, do you have a daily summary or weekly that you are keeping track of?
Someone took a paintball gun and fired it all over your chart!!!
I love how you keep taking trades Game. Do you add points? Or did I already ask you? Seems like here you are still way ahead, even adding in commissions and the loss on the scratches. And if you are adding, do you have a daily summary or weekly that you are keeping track of?
Well today was the day to go Rambo.
If one can practice restraint during dull markets
and yet be aggressive on a turn like today,
Your's is the market and everything that's in it
Andâwhich is moreâyouâll be a Trader, my son!
Yes keeping track of P/L. Have to, since I can't go live until the numbers say otherwise.
Yes keeping track of P/L. Have to, since I can't go live until the numbers say otherwise.
May I ask for a rough tally? Just in terms of how bad your worst day is, or perhaps if you're clearly in the positive after a full week even if one day goes bad?
May I ask for a rough tally? Just in terms of how bad your worst day is, or perhaps if you're clearly in the positive after a full week even if one day goes bad?
This week was 125 points (net of com), across 51 lots. PF of 3. Based on what the market offered this week, it isn't spectacular - and that has to do with my exits.
My plan has been in a state of constant revision, as I have tried to balance structure with freedom. I feel I am arriving at some stability now and the stats will be more meaningful going forward. Regardless, losing weeks have been rare lately.
This week was 125 points (net of com), across 51 lots. PF of 3. Based on what the market offered this week, it isn't spectacular - and that has to do with my exits.
My plan has been in a state of constant revision, as I have tried to balance structure with freedom. I feel I am arriving at some stability now and the stats will be more meaningful going forward. Regardless, losing weeks have been rare lately.
Thanks game.... this is an excellent result! It is true that this week has been exceptionally volatile, but 125 points is nothing to sneeze at.
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
Livermore
What is the basis that determines when one should sit tight? It should be the same basis as the one upon which the initial entry was made, i.e. the direction and intensity of the Line of Least Resistance . However, while time does not play a critical role in entries (in that entries are supposed to work rather quickly), it plays a very important in exits. The LOLR may be clear and intense, but it may also require adequate time to manifest itself. The last two variables influencing the exit decision are the opportunity cost of missing out on Reversals and the opportunity cost of not being able to re-enter the trend. So the variables are:
1.Line of Least Resistance
2.Intensity of the Line of Least Resistance
3.Time required for the Line to manifest
4.Opportunity cost of missing Reversals
5.Opportunity cost of not being able to re-enter the trend
While there is seldom enough time to think during entries, trades in profit usually afford enough time to consider the interplay of the above variables in making an exit decision. However, the exit tactics themselves are preset. The decision is about when to deploy one tactic over another. There are 4 tactics:
1. Exit on parabolic move
2. Exit on momentum break
3. Exit on failed Retest of High/Low
4. Exit on 50%+ level of immediate swing
There are enough degrees of freedom between these tactics to allow exit decisions to reflect the ever changing Supply/Demand balance.
Some observations regarding exit decisions:
1. Strong Dominant trend moves often start right off the Open. Thus, trending moves that start from dull markets or from chop are more likely to mean revert.
2. The ability to enter in a fast market with low confirmation is an advantage that few have. This should be taken advantage of via re-entries.
3. The extent of the swing before loss of momentum indicates whether the move is likely to continue or reverse. The rubber band being stretched metaphor can be applied to short swings. But once a move goes a certain distance, it reflects a shifting of the value level. There is low probability of mean reversion. After a certain point, the rubber band actually loses tension on being stretched even more.
4. The exit on parabolic and re-enter routine is easier during the first legs of a trend. The last few legs of a trend are 'glacial' - consisting of periods of congestion before continuation. Thus, sit through deeper retracements during later stages, while taking advantage of early uncertainty by being nimble in exiting and re-entering.
Livermore
What is the basis that determines when one should sit tight? It should be the same basis as the one upon which the initial entry was made, i.e. the direction and intensity of the Line of Least Resistance . However, while time does not play a critical role in entries (in that entries are supposed to work rather quickly), it plays a very important in exits. The LOLR may be clear and intense, but it may also require adequate time to manifest itself. The last two variables influencing the exit decision are the opportunity cost of missing out on Reversals and the opportunity cost of not being able to re-enter the trend. So the variables are:
1.Line of Least Resistance
2.Intensity of the Line of Least Resistance
3.Time required for the Line to manifest
4.Opportunity cost of missing Reversals
5.Opportunity cost of not being able to re-enter the trend
While there is seldom enough time to think during entries, trades in profit usually afford enough time to consider the interplay of the above variables in making an exit decision. However, the exit tactics themselves are preset. The decision is about when to deploy one tactic over another. There are 4 tactics:
1. Exit on parabolic move
2. Exit on momentum break
3. Exit on failed Retest of High/Low
4. Exit on 50%+ level of immediate swing
There are enough degrees of freedom between these tactics to allow exit decisions to reflect the ever changing Supply/Demand balance.
Some observations regarding exit decisions:
1. Strong Dominant trend moves often start right off the Open. Thus, trending moves that start from dull markets or from chop are more likely to mean revert.
2. The ability to enter in a fast market with low confirmation is an advantage that few have. This should be taken advantage of via re-entries.
3. The extent of the swing before loss of momentum indicates whether the move is likely to continue or reverse. The rubber band being stretched metaphor can be applied to short swings. But once a move goes a certain distance, it reflects a shifting of the value level. There is low probability of mean reversion. After a certain point, the rubber band actually loses tension on being stretched even more.
4. The exit on parabolic and re-enter routine is easier during the first legs of a trend. The last few legs of a trend are 'glacial' - consisting of periods of congestion before continuation. Thus, sit through deeper retracements during later stages, while taking advantage of early uncertainty by being nimble in exiting and re-entering.
"
Some observations regarding exit decisions:
1. Strong Dominant trend moves often start right off the Open. Thus, trending moves that start from dull markets or from chop are more likely to mean revert.
2. The ability to enter in a fast market with low confirmation is an advantage that few have. This should be taken advantage of via re-entries.
3. The extent of the swing before loss of momentum indicates whether the move is likely to continue or reverse. The rubber band being stretched metaphor can be applied to short swings. But once a move goes a certain distance, it reflects a shifting of the value level. There is low probability of mean reversion. After a certain point, the rubber band actually loses tension on being stretched even more.
4. The exit on parabolic and re-enter routine is easier during the first legs of a trend. The last few legs of a trend are 'glacial' - consisting of periods of congestion before continuation. Thus, sit through deeper retracements during later stages, while taking advantage of early uncertainty by being nimble in exiting and re-entering.
excellent observations. Sounds like your PA reading skills are getting strong
excellent observations. Sounds like your PA reading skills are getting strong
How have things been going for you? Please feel free to add or critique.