Making of a method

Quote from niko:

Congrats, I totally wasted a perfect trend day. :mad:
More...

Have you narrowed down on your exit options during adverse movement?
I haven't seen any exits on your charts. Doing so may give you a more realistic picture about your performance as you start balancing the tradeoffs between entry, MAE, SAR, etc. Then you could build out from there.
 
I am experimenting with a structure where each moment of PA will be assigned a score. A trade is put on only once the score reaches a 2 for shorts or an 8 for longs. The scale is from 1 to 10, with 5 representing balance.

The score comes from my real time assessment of PA. While certain markers carry more weight than others, there is no need for any specific sequence of PA markers to confirm the set up. The set up is the score.

My ideal is to have a continuous read on the probability of movement at any given time using all available information. The advantages of such an ideal are obvious. Some of the challenges are:

1. Confirmation Bias - I can force evidence out of PA to give me the required score.

2. Analysis paralysis - Hesitation

3.Inconsistent weighing of evidence to curve fit.


To overcome these challenges I am going to rely on a very thorough review process, comparing my real time thinking with hindsight thinking. Going forward, I plan to post these reviews here. I hope others can jump in and point out situations where I have ignored, improperly weighed or manufactured the evidence for entries and exits.

On the chart: Black text is real time thinking. Red is hindsight.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1386813891836.png
 
Quote from game:

FT Day 79 Dec 13th

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1386954138985.png
More...

Game, I am not sure if I understand all your abbreviations, sometimes it seems like R is for Resistance and others for Retracement. Am I wrong?

What is SP?

Going into more profound matters. Regarding what was written in red, although I did not take the short at 10:17 (EST) because of being too focused on the pattern instead of reading price well. It was a failure after a line break, you can even classify it as a DT I guess, giving you all you needed to take the short.
 
Quote from niko:

Game, I am not sure if I understand all your abbreviations, sometimes it seems like R is for Resistance and others for Retracement. Am I wrong?

What is SP?

Going into more profound matters. Regarding what was written in red, although I did not take the short at 10:17 (EST) because of being too focused on the pattern instead of reading price well. It was a failure after a line break, you can even classify it as a DT I guess, giving you all you needed to take the short.
More...


R is Resistance. SP is Swing Point. I wanted to avoid using SL for both Supply Line and Swing Low.

Regd the short at 10:17: Given the violence with which the down thrust at 1014 was rejected back to R, I wasn't thinking about the short at all. I was anticipating a BO, which never happened. It was a double Failure. I am seeing this as slightly different from a Double Top or even a Retest.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top