Making of a method
- Thread starter game
- Start date
Looks good, I did not take the first short because My view was that we were still within the chop.
Can you perform this analysis in your stats? : what would have happened if your entries were not exited at your current stop, but at the break of the LSH or LSL, that of course only before the new Line could be traced (LL or HH).? Once the latter hapens, you follow your close rules.
I did run some numbers with a wider stop and it does improve the performance. But I don't have confidence in the results, partly because my entries are not accurate and partly because I feel there is a better way.
There are many ways price can act after entry and I am trying to develop a stop strategy for each category of response.
Ex: If price takes off immediately after entry and then returns back towards entry with force, it is conveying information about pressure that is different than if it were to meander around entry or move adversely immediately upon entry.
I am also seeing that a good re-entry tactic may be the solution to this stop business.
Plan Evolution
Plan Version 1:
Wait for price to break and test S/R. Enter upon successful test.
Problem: Being overwhelmed by the context analysis. Hesitation everywhere. Too much emphasis on Prep work taking away from the moment. Missed opportunities. Lack of structure. Early profit taking.
Insights:
1. Best moves start from Sequential Swings during the Opening Zone.
2. Once price moves a substantial distance, probability of V Reversal is low. Even if the trend is exhausted, there will most likely be a retest. Keep holding.
3. Once Dominant trend is established, focus on scaling in through continuations and Reversals of counter waves. Seek more information for Reversals.
Plan Version 2: Become fluid with entering Sequential Swings after the Open. Once Dominant trend is established, manage trade and seek to scale in. Be cautious with Reversals and seek greater confirmation if Dominant Trend has been established.
Problem: The imposed structure made my approach mechanical. Focusing on the upcoming ret set up and ignoring the information being generated by the quality of the PA. Instances of taking trades when the LOLR was clearly aligned against the trade. The focus on fluidity spilled over to early entries during the Opening zone, while hesitation now shifted to Reversals and SAR opportunities.
Plan Version 3: Don't feel obliged to commit to Swings if there is balance being indicated by the PA. Get back to observing the PA and focus on balance. Retain the option to not participate.
Problem: Lack of structure reemerging. No framework to array observations onto. Inconsistency. A day of positive results from aggressive entries primes me for taking early entries in situations that don't call for the speed. Don't know how to balance between participating and stepping back. Lack of faith in the quality of entry causing an inability to sit through adverse action.
Insights:
1. PA trading is conditional probability. Use evolving cues to update assessments of balance. Get away from static set up thinking and develop an in session process to convert evolving PA into probability judgments.
2. Instead of back testing by sifting through permutations, study clear and compelling hindsight trades for common features.
3. Use the stats from these feature as base rates for updating probabilities.
Plan Version 4:
Develop an in session process for quickly taking PA information and converting it to a numerical scale. Move away from static visual set ups to a numerical score of the composite picture.
Participate in swings, whether at extremes or not. Don't participate if balance is unclear. Record in-session judgments about balance. Be aggressive at extremes. Manage stops based on intensity of initial probability judgment.
Plan Version 1:
Wait for price to break and test S/R. Enter upon successful test.
Problem: Being overwhelmed by the context analysis. Hesitation everywhere. Too much emphasis on Prep work taking away from the moment. Missed opportunities. Lack of structure. Early profit taking.
Insights:
1. Best moves start from Sequential Swings during the Opening Zone.
2. Once price moves a substantial distance, probability of V Reversal is low. Even if the trend is exhausted, there will most likely be a retest. Keep holding.
3. Once Dominant trend is established, focus on scaling in through continuations and Reversals of counter waves. Seek more information for Reversals.
Plan Version 2: Become fluid with entering Sequential Swings after the Open. Once Dominant trend is established, manage trade and seek to scale in. Be cautious with Reversals and seek greater confirmation if Dominant Trend has been established.
Problem: The imposed structure made my approach mechanical. Focusing on the upcoming ret set up and ignoring the information being generated by the quality of the PA. Instances of taking trades when the LOLR was clearly aligned against the trade. The focus on fluidity spilled over to early entries during the Opening zone, while hesitation now shifted to Reversals and SAR opportunities.
Plan Version 3: Don't feel obliged to commit to Swings if there is balance being indicated by the PA. Get back to observing the PA and focus on balance. Retain the option to not participate.
Problem: Lack of structure reemerging. No framework to array observations onto. Inconsistency. A day of positive results from aggressive entries primes me for taking early entries in situations that don't call for the speed. Don't know how to balance between participating and stepping back. Lack of faith in the quality of entry causing an inability to sit through adverse action.
Insights:
1. PA trading is conditional probability. Use evolving cues to update assessments of balance. Get away from static set up thinking and develop an in session process to convert evolving PA into probability judgments.
2. Instead of back testing by sifting through permutations, study clear and compelling hindsight trades for common features.
3. Use the stats from these feature as base rates for updating probabilities.
Plan Version 4:
Develop an in session process for quickly taking PA information and converting it to a numerical scale. Move away from static visual set ups to a numerical score of the composite picture.
Participate in swings, whether at extremes or not. Don't participate if balance is unclear. Record in-session judgments about balance. Be aggressive at extremes. Manage stops based on intensity of initial probability judgment.
why not trade dbs way but use 2 contracts take 1 off at a certain price level and re-enter the trade if trend is strong with the 2nd contract you still will catch major swings with 1 contract and since the market trends strongly only 15-20% of the time in the long term your gains will be better.
This is so much better, but a few notes, not CWS, but just stuff to think about.
Your first short and your first long were fine, but given that the first long resulted in a lower high, you could have justified getting out a lot faster, if possible. No need to hold and hope.
Two bars after that, you had a short op, not taken, don't know why. But if it had been taken, the subsequent three short failures would never have been taken. If the best entry is not taken, any other entry will by definition be inferior. Keep this in mind if and when taking them.
Even though you "lost" six points by not just jumping in to the V reversal, you did take the first legit long, which was excellent. But then you allowed yourself to be shaken out. Fear again? In this case, you took the best entry but had no conviction. Why? The reflux after entry was only a couple of ticks. And if your entry had been a little sooner, the reflux would never have touched you. After that, there was no reason whatsoever to exit if following the PA. Remember that the mkt couldn't care less where you enter or exit or how much you make or lose. Whatever concerns you may have over what the market does with regard to your entries are only in your head. So focus on controlling yourself, not the mkt.