Making of a method

[niko]

Quote from game:

Taking SAR trades without a ret at every failure to break a SH upon break of DS line is going to lead to a lot of scratch/losing trades in chop. I believe that is where the value of the ret comes in, as one gets a mini re-test for confirmation.

Agree, now, there are some times when you dont get a RET, but price fails to show you follow through in the initial direction, that is a clue that one could capitalize on.

In feel that in this case, more important than the SH was the major R of 3392. Failure to break through R at the open justified the greater information risk of a SAR entry. That is what I have to test and define so I can take it without hesitation in the future.

This is what I meant when I wrote "Some times" above.

Regarding the exits: do you use a certain logic for entry test level management or is it simply a matter of trial and error? I am wary of curve fitting. It's definitely something that needs to be refined, but I feel that it will come with time as I start getting used to the speed of the market.

That is what I am looking for now, I am currently comfortable with my entries, but the next thing after one enters is to identify the price action that is going to confirm that one is in a new trend or not.

My thinking is that as soon as one confirms that one is not in a trend one should exit, where exactly? I am looking for it, as you are. I tried extra tight, but it did not work, perhaps because my reentry was not clear, not just because the tight (1 point) exit did not work.

The extreme is to use the LSL or LSH as a reference point, but that is usually way too far.

Still looking for it though.

 

[game]

FT Day 48 Oct 30

Review:

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1383147431174.png

 

[niko]

Quote from slugar:

This is the exact reason I like trading 2 contracts and taking 1 off and letting the 2nd run until a supply or demand line is taken out it really takes the pressure off of you and if the trend continues you simply re enter on a retracement and start the process over again!

Yes the second contract helps to reduce pressure.

 

[niko]

Quote from game:

FT Day 48 Oct 30

Review:

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1383147431174.png

And everything was according to your plan or do you see need for improvement.?

 

[game]

Quote from niko:

And everything was according to your plan or do you see need for improvement.?

Yes according to plan. A lot of things required for improvement. Mostly the need to compile stats.

 

[niko]

Quote from game:

Yes according to plan. A lot of things required for improvement. Mostly the need to compile stats.

I have had trouble compiling stats on multiple exits. That is why I decided to use 1 contract for stats gathering purposes.

 

[game]

Quote from niko:

I have had trouble compiling stats on multiple exits. That is why I decided to use 1 contract for stats gathering purposes.

A possible solution would be to ignore the precise exit and take a step back to see the larger picture. Once price moves substantially, does it tend to persist in that general direction for the rest of the session? You will have to define what substantial is.

My current focus is on gathering stats to help determine the best way to enter the trend. Basically when to use fast rets and when to use slow rets.

 

[niko]

Quote from game:

A possible solution would be to ignore the precise exit and take a step back to see the larger picture. Once price moves substantially, does it tend to persist in that general direction for the rest of the session? You will have to define what substantial is.

My current focus is on gathering stats to help determine the best way to enter the trend. Basically when to use fast rets and when to use slow rets.

Yep, the larger picture is something I have not really got into so far, is one of my to do list priorities, and now that I am on the look for exits perhaps is a good time.

For example today buyers were rejected at the top of the hourly channel and then were taken all the way to the bottom where buyers decided it was enough.

With that in mind one could differentiate between one exit in the middle of nowhere and one where it is important. I guess.

 

[game]

FT Day 49 Oct 31st

Review:

There was no reason to exit the last long at 0952. Price had broken out of chop with strength and would most likely persist in the direction of break.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1383233110280.png

 

[game]

FT Day 50 Nov 1st

Review:

Big lesson from today was the need to sustain focus. Price had just failed from a huge upside attempt and this failure should have led me to fully focus back on the PA. Checking forum posts led to missing the entry on the best opportunity of the day.

If for some reason I miss the best entry, then I need to quickly decide whether a higher price risk entry is worth it on the next hesitation even if it is intrabar. The dynamics of this situation were compelling enough to warrant the risk of a late entry. I need to draw up some basic guidelines that will differentiate between chasing and late entry.

I am also beginning to see how volume and speed give important clues at crucial zones - whether it is a break point, turn point or exhaustion point. I have to think about whether I can create any sort of basic decision framework with these variables.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1383321126765.png