Making of a method

Quote from slugar:

This method is really good if you have a strict plan and can stick with it but I am finding really difficult to make rules that apply to almost any situation the market presents and that has lead me to believe it's very discretionary and in my humble opinion someone starting out needs to have rules that cover any market condition
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Since this is pure PA, where one simply follows price's lead, the method is only as discretionary as price is.

Guidelines are mostly about determining whether price is in a value zone, and thus not participating until it gets to a state of supply/demand imbalance.

The rest is tactics that determine how one enters the trend and manages the trade.
 
FT Day 39 Oct 17

R: 3276
R: 3266

S: 3151


Context: Slight weakness being shown ON with the formation of LH and LL, although there is no definite current trend as price compresses. Currently at the 50% level of the swing from the lows of the 16th- an indication that the sharp climb from the 9th may be balancing into consolidation or a Reversal to test Support.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1382014379386.png
 
Review:

A review of trades from the past few weeks shows mistakes arising from the fear of missing out. This leads to early entries, late entries and a general tendency to over-trade. To counter this problem, I have eliminated certain entries from the plan.

The focus today was to observe this fear of missing out. It led to some hesitation and missed opportunities at the Open. While straight Reversals off the main wave have been taken out of the plan, straight Reversals off S/R during the open have generally worked out well. So have straight Reversals off counter waves to the main trend. These entries need to be clearly defined in the plan so that there is no hesitation.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=138202069724.png
 
Quote from game:

Review:

A review of trades from the past few weeks shows mistakes arising from the fear of missing out. This leads to early entries, late entries and a general tendency to over-trade. To counter this problem, I have eliminated certain entries from the plan.

The focus today was to observe this fear of missing out. It led to some hesitation and missed opportunities at the Open. While straight Reversals off the main wave have been taken out of the plan, straight Reversals off S/R during the open have generally worked out well. So have straight Reversals off counter waves to the main trend. These entries need to be clearly defined in the plan so that there is no hesitation.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=138202069724.png
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game,

After your short, and exit around 0914. The buy around 0918 could have come around 3268 or 3269 instead of later and higher around 3271.5 that you had. Notice when the RET takes place and price resumes the upward trend. That's when you want to get in and not wait for more confirmation. If you were waiting for a new high then I can understand why you avoided this entry. However, considering the larger context, price is trending up, hence, longs are a bit more likely option.

Gringo
 
Quote from Gringo:

game,

After your short, and exit around 0914. The buy around 0918 could have come around 3268 or 3269 instead of later and higher around 3271.5 that you had. Notice when the RET takes place and price resumes the upward trend. That's when you want to get in and not wait for more confirmation. If you were waiting for a new high then I can understand why you avoided this entry. However, considering the larger context, price is trending up, hence, longs are a bit more likely option.

Gringo
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I agree. While the 50% + sell down from the high at 0847 and the LH at 0905 deflated the case for longs, the failure to drop after the LH started shifting the balance towards demand, although it was still closer to neutral.

The balance shifted dramatically once the surge at 0915 took price instantly to R. This was the signal to go long on the ret at 0918 in anticipation of breaking through R.

Had price meandered to R, one could have probably waited for the BO through 3269 and then played it like a BO ret. But the failure to drop after the creation of a LH, plus the surge to R, along with the overall long bias called for an earlier entry.
 
S/D review for Monday, Oct 14th.

1. The weakness from PM does not translate into a sell down. Sell stop not triggered.

2. Buy ret

3. A straight 14 point rise with hardly any hesitation. Could exit 1 lot here based on this info alone, but will wait for the creation of a SL as per trade management plan.

4. Exit on SL breach.

5. Exit on 50% breach. The sell down is fast. Given the strength shown off the open, the long is held, but there is no sharp bounce back in direction of trend and long is exited on the second movement down.

6. The strong reversal shows buyers coming into join the trend at lower prices. Long on ret.

7. Price falls sharp after creating a substantial HH. Demand still in charge, so only partial exit on cross of DS line and breach below the previous High level.

8. Given the balance being with demand, price is given room at 50% level, but the trade is exited once it falls back down.

9. HH and rising Suppport shows pressure building for trend continuation. Long on ret.

10. R found at previous High. All exited.

11. The inability of trend to continue and rejection at previous R points to weakness. Short on ret. This short is exited on DS line break. At this point there is balance.

12. The LH once again confirms R. Short.

13. Trade exited on rising Support.

14. Some compression. Balance is still with longs, but not decisively so. Waiting for a BO.

15. Long on ret after BO from compression.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1382064161132.png
 
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