Making of a method
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A little late, but you took the risk, made a profit, have a plan for the rest, and I assume that your stomach isn't tied up in knots. So a good day, and NY hasn't even opened yet.
(Incidentally, I'm looking forward to the rush of posts from the experiencedariti about the trades they "took".)
Review
My thinking during the session till 1
0830 Nice. I am well positioned for the short side. PM drop at 0736 and Open drop confirm the downtrend. Just got to manage it now.
0830 12 Point climactic drop. Close 1 lot now and look to re-enter after the reaction.
0831 Strong buying. It's a rev but still close to 50% mark. Let's keep holding the short since overall trend is down.
0832 Blank. Hoping. No clear thoughts.
Should have been seeing that:
1) The V Rev off the open sell down indicated a lot of strength. The fact that the sell down was brought back this much warranted a neutral position at the very least.
2) Even though the plan was to watch for what happened at the 50% level, I did not see that at 0832 and 0833 price moved up and off that level. This should have led me to exit the short and position for a long.
My thinking during the session from 1 to 2
0840 Opp to go long. But I am going to wait till price forms a HH. Will buy the next ret after that.
My thinking during the session from 2 to 3
0850 Price back below the 96 level. LOLR is down.
Should have seen that:
1) Price had stopped falling short of the 50% level. This indicated strength. Once the short was exited, there was an opp to go long at 0856.
The strong Rev was a massive DTDB sign. Even though I missed the absolute best opp at 1, a gradual awareness of the DTDB would have alerted me to take the long at 3.
The problem is that being in a trade is affecting my reading of supply/demand balance. Had I not been short, I would have judged the action at the 50% levels differently. There should not be any difference because the LOLR is the same regardless of whether I am participating or not.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1380564880707.png
My thinking during the session till 1
0830 Nice. I am well positioned for the short side. PM drop at 0736 and Open drop confirm the downtrend. Just got to manage it now.
0830 12 Point climactic drop. Close 1 lot now and look to re-enter after the reaction.
0831 Strong buying. It's a rev but still close to 50% mark. Let's keep holding the short since overall trend is down.
0832 Blank. Hoping. No clear thoughts.
Should have been seeing that:
1) The V Rev off the open sell down indicated a lot of strength. The fact that the sell down was brought back this much warranted a neutral position at the very least.
2) Even though the plan was to watch for what happened at the 50% level, I did not see that at 0832 and 0833 price moved up and off that level. This should have led me to exit the short and position for a long.
My thinking during the session from 1 to 2
0840 Opp to go long. But I am going to wait till price forms a HH. Will buy the next ret after that.
My thinking during the session from 2 to 3
0850 Price back below the 96 level. LOLR is down.
Should have seen that:
1) Price had stopped falling short of the 50% level. This indicated strength. Once the short was exited, there was an opp to go long at 0856.
The strong Rev was a massive DTDB sign. Even though I missed the absolute best opp at 1, a gradual awareness of the DTDB would have alerted me to take the long at 3.
The problem is that being in a trade is affecting my reading of supply/demand balance. Had I not been short, I would have judged the action at the 50% levels differently. There should not be any difference because the LOLR is the same regardless of whether I am participating or not.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1380564880707.png
OK looked it up as Naked Volume POC and High Volume Node. Probably from MP.I am unfamiliar with it's details, but do understand the broader principles.
Just so that I can compare my plan against your MP based plan, could you show me where you would have placed trades (or did) based on your MP analysis?
Best Setup of the day was Held Bid at the NQ NVPOC after the test lower. For me the Scenario was NQ Yesterday RTH Low by 0900 CT. Unfortunately I caught it small size because it happened so fast. I use Price, Time, and R multiple objectives to make decisions. In this case I exited half at 2R, half at 1R and the remainder at my time objective. For NQ I use 5 points as R. Obviously I try to exit losers for less than 1R.
I called this out in the ES Journal thread as it was underway.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=256242&perpage=6&pagenumber=1163
I called this out in the ES Journal thread as it was underway.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=256242&perpage=6&pagenumber=1163
Thanks for sharing that. The principles I use do not encourage trading R/R, i.e. targets. Although my own trading thus far is incurring execution obstacles, the plan is supposed to avg atleast 6R+, usually multiple times a day. Niko and 40D's charts illustrate it much better than mine.
The R/R of executing the current plan is overwhelmingly attractive. Curious to know whether you think you could improve your current ROC by incorporating more Supply/Demand principles? Or perhaps you already are...