Making of a method
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"Everyone can see the statistical patterns, and they are soon reflected in the betting line. The question is whether they represent signal or noise. Voulgaris forms hypotheses from his basketball knowledge so that he might tell the difference more quickly and accurately"
- The Signal and the Noise
Portraying price movement in a 18 min or 1min or 13s bar interval does not convert it's contents into noise. I used to think about noise as 'fluctuations'. I am beginning to see that Noise is merely incorrect understanding. The continuous nature of price means that causation is being reflected continuously. The thinking that truth can be bound in bar intervals is the Noise. The understanding that it is not so, is the Signal. The uncertainty is not in the price movement, but in the limits of my capability to understand it.
- The Signal and the Noise
Portraying price movement in a 18 min or 1min or 13s bar interval does not convert it's contents into noise. I used to think about noise as 'fluctuations'. I am beginning to see that Noise is merely incorrect understanding. The continuous nature of price means that causation is being reflected continuously. The thinking that truth can be bound in bar intervals is the Noise. The understanding that it is not so, is the Signal. The uncertainty is not in the price movement, but in the limits of my capability to understand it.
back to the fisherie comment , if you have a bias ,possibly an agenda for the people that own the fisherie, example was the 166.65=167 cleave, you can watch them coax it up there, they run it down, get people short ,,then run it up and get(retail) short covers to push it, stopping at overnite high, then get folks short again, then squeeze them and get them to push it higher, some times its obvious some times not, you need to see volume at intermediate high and low turns, if the volume spikes are only on the dips , bullish, watch the internals,just something to watch during noise or chop the example below is a weak one but it was a very dull day
The path has wound up to a small hill. A quick traverse brings me to a clearing in the woods. A vista of what lies ahead is offered. It is a wonderful feeling - this sense that the path is true.
I see glimpses of the merging between:
Price Action
Bayesian Thinking
Cognitive Biases
Process Over Outcome
These are my allies and they are plenty.
I see glimpses of the merging between:
Price Action
Bayesian Thinking
Cognitive Biases
Process Over Outcome
These are my allies and they are plenty.
