Day 15 of 20
Prep:
Price has fallen 150 plus points since the 19th. Now well below trend channel. Likely that old channel is not valid anymore as a reference point for mean reversion. This is new territory so no obvious S zone nearby. Bias is on the short side, although I expect the downtrend to lose momentum as buyers come in to buy at these levels and this may cause a bounce back to swing highs or even the MP at 2918.
The upswing at PM has retraced 50% plus.
S: 2842 (from PM)
R: 2856 (from PM)
R: 2861 (from Overnight)
R: 2875 (LSH from 21st)
R: 2898 (Swing high from 21st)
R: 2918 (MP of downswing from the 19th onwards)
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=137211848467.png
The opening showed immediate weakness. Normally price surges and shows a lot of back on forth action within the first min itself. But today, the small upward thrust was brought down quick. I started thinking short but before I could do anything price fell. This was a missed opportunity but not a big mistake considering that there is normally much more hesitation and back and forth during the open.
Got a good RET opp and entered the short. Being inexperienced with trading the first few minutes of the open, I was expecting volatility and got out as price seemed to find temporary support. This was an expensive error. Given my bias from prep and the action's confirmation of that bias, I should have stayed in the trade with confidence.
Now that two short opps had been missed I became aware of the tendency to want to join the trend late. I reminded myself not to get inside any small retracement thrust and to wait for the larger retracement swing.
Drew a MP line and saw price hit it and reverse. My short bias prompted an aggressive Reversal without waiting for much of a ret. Got out of 1 lot on the break of DS line. Then got out of the remaining two at the first hint of Support as selling was being brought back. But this was not a predetermined S level and I did not need to be this jumpy. This was a good opportunity to apply orderly scale outs based on rules.
Once price Reversed from the downswing, I was tempted to get into longs on RET's. But the pace had slowed and range was small. Traditionally, this is when I get sucked into trades, then get impatient with the slow pace and nervous about going against the larger trend. So I reminded myself of this and somehow avoided taking longs. At 0921 price fell sharp below the DS line and off the MP. The presence of R overhead via MP allowed me to take the short. Price moved back to entry and I got out on a cross of DS line as the pace was slow and the presence of the low beneath meant this was likely to be chop territory.
Prep:
Price has fallen 150 plus points since the 19th. Now well below trend channel. Likely that old channel is not valid anymore as a reference point for mean reversion. This is new territory so no obvious S zone nearby. Bias is on the short side, although I expect the downtrend to lose momentum as buyers come in to buy at these levels and this may cause a bounce back to swing highs or even the MP at 2918.
The upswing at PM has retraced 50% plus.
S: 2842 (from PM)
R: 2856 (from PM)
R: 2861 (from Overnight)
R: 2875 (LSH from 21st)
R: 2898 (Swing high from 21st)
R: 2918 (MP of downswing from the 19th onwards)
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=137211848467.png
The opening showed immediate weakness. Normally price surges and shows a lot of back on forth action within the first min itself. But today, the small upward thrust was brought down quick. I started thinking short but before I could do anything price fell. This was a missed opportunity but not a big mistake considering that there is normally much more hesitation and back and forth during the open.
Got a good RET opp and entered the short. Being inexperienced with trading the first few minutes of the open, I was expecting volatility and got out as price seemed to find temporary support. This was an expensive error. Given my bias from prep and the action's confirmation of that bias, I should have stayed in the trade with confidence.
Now that two short opps had been missed I became aware of the tendency to want to join the trend late. I reminded myself not to get inside any small retracement thrust and to wait for the larger retracement swing.
Drew a MP line and saw price hit it and reverse. My short bias prompted an aggressive Reversal without waiting for much of a ret. Got out of 1 lot on the break of DS line. Then got out of the remaining two at the first hint of Support as selling was being brought back. But this was not a predetermined S level and I did not need to be this jumpy. This was a good opportunity to apply orderly scale outs based on rules.
Once price Reversed from the downswing, I was tempted to get into longs on RET's. But the pace had slowed and range was small. Traditionally, this is when I get sucked into trades, then get impatient with the slow pace and nervous about going against the larger trend. So I reminded myself of this and somehow avoided taking longs. At 0921 price fell sharp below the DS line and off the MP. The presence of R overhead via MP allowed me to take the short. Price moved back to entry and I got out on a cross of DS line as the pace was slow and the presence of the low beneath meant this was likely to be chop territory.
