Since you have an established trading range by the open, the first retracement in the move downward toward support, at 0837-38, should be shorted. No longs should be taken until after a bounce off support, at 0855. I don't see the demand line break and lower high you're referring to in your annotations.
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Since you have an established trading range by the open, the first retracement in the move downward toward support, at 0837-38, should be shorted. No longs should be taken until after a bounce off support, at 0855. I don't see the demand line break and lower high you're referring to in your annotations.
Fed news yesterday afternoon sent price south, and money changed from the weak hands who bought the trend channel breakout to stronger hands. Since price is now well back into the channel, the LOLR is down, toward the lower line, at present 2880. It will be interesting to see if price finds support ahead of that level, such as at the last swing low at 2900.
I missed the first bounce off 87 and went into the long after the retest bounce at 0900. I have drawn the DL and indicated the LH that led me to exit the long.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1371743972256.png
Your fear is manifesting itself in an excessive rigidity which will defeat you. As I said yesterday (and many times in the past), retracements are an opportunity for those who missed a particular move to get on board afterward. If you can't wait to determine whether or not new buyers will in fact take advantage of this opportunity, then you must grapple with your fear more directly or learn how to scalp.
In this case, the demand line begins at the first swing low and is defined by the second swing low. Following each bar with a demand line ensures that you will be out in minutes. Keep in mind that the purpose of this line is to track demand, not to substitute for a 1-period MA. The abovementioned line passes under the 0901 bar and the 0914 thru 0918 bars. It isn't "broken" until 0933, and even then price merely segues into a sideways move.
As for the "lower high", any bar which is not higher than the preceding bar is going to be a lower high, but this can't be a trigger for exit unless you're scalping. At the very least, wait to see if price holds above the midpoint of the preceding rally. Here it bounces off that midpoint exactly, at 2789. But even without the midpoint, price is holding steady at about 2789.25 throughout the retracement. There is simply no compelling reason to exit this trade.
In this case, the demand line begins at the first swing low and is defined by the second swing low. Following each bar with a demand line ensures that you will be out in minutes. Keep in mind that the purpose of this line is to track demand, not to substitute for a 1-period MA. The abovementioned line passes under the 0901 bar and the 0914 thru 0918 bars. It isn't "broken" until 0933, and even then price merely segues into a sideways move.
As for the "lower high", any bar which is not higher than the preceding bar is going to be a lower high, but this can't be a trigger for exit unless you're scalping. At the very least, wait to see if price holds above the midpoint of the preceding rally. Here it bounces off that midpoint exactly, at 2789. But even without the midpoint, price is holding steady at about 2789.25 throughout the retracement. There is simply no compelling reason to exit this trade.
And a reentry short opportunity would have been the 1520 bar after the bounce from the daily midpoint...?