Making of a method

[game]

Two ideas to pursue:

1) Focusing on the first few mins after the open and becoming sensitive to the pace and extent of pressure during this time.

Could more volatility during a time period make it more predictable?


2) Establishing a checklist and point system to measure the quality of bias and making it reviewable.

Most important thing is to take context and create bias. If I can get the bias correct, I can be on the right side of the market.

If I can trust my bias, I can then be flexible on the tactical level instead of being bound to patterns.

 

[ammo]

bias is used when a person says i will open an acct and make a living trading,bias is used when a person says i will look at 1 minute 5 minute 1 hour 5 yr charts,bias is fine tuned when the ideas bouncing around in your subconscious are bouncing off stores of data,looking at a lot of data might seem overwhelming in the beginning as walking did when a person is 6 months old,

point being made ,run thru the large down to the minute in your instrument each day and a few correlating instruments,this will form your objective bias and take the subjective you out of the equation

 

[game]

Quote from ammo:

bias is used when a person says i will open an acct and make a living trading,bias is used when a person says i will look at 1 minute 5 minute 1 hour 5 yr charts,bias is fine tuned when the ideas bouncing around in your subconscious are bouncing off stores of data,looking at a lot of data might seem overwhelming in the beginning as walking did when a person is 6 months old,

point being made ,run thru the large down to the minute in your instrument each day and a few correlating instruments,this will form your objective bias and take the subjective you out of the equation

I am unclear on the 'lot of data' part. Does the 80/20 rule apply here where a few key figures or procedures determine the majority of your bias? If it's not too much trouble, would you be able to share how you do a run down of your instrument?

 

[ammo]

try to run thru it tomorrow am

 

[game]

June 7th
Price created low on the 6th but then climbed strong thereafter. Moved sideways during ON. Strong increase of volatility during PM. Shot to 69 but has now retraced to 57. Bias is long.

R: 2964
R: 2967

S: 2952
S: 2954 (MP zone)
S: 2942

0832 HL and LH. No clear bias.
0834 Makes a go for the downside from the hinge on the 5s. Bias shifting short.
0837 Indications of S zone forming at 55. But LH's still being made.
0838 Reversal off S. Bias neutral.
0842 Reversal retraces all the way back to S zone of 55. Bias short.
0848 More S appeared at 53. S has been established and bias shifts to long.
0901 Just below former high from PM at 69. Good sized ret. Some scale out here.
0908 Breaks through R of 69. Buying waves very small, losing pace. See if any ret goes back below former R, now S.
0915 Price up 23 pts since 53. Clear uptrend for day. No significant ret yet, but price at highs from the 5th. Bias still long but can scale some out here.
0918 Rev wave. Bias neutral. Still above SL level.
0924 Bias short.
0930 Sideways. New value level may have been found. Bias neutral.
0943 At high of 79. But climb was slow with a lot of trades. No strong long bias here. More neutral.

Summary:

1: Neutral
2: Short as price shows a breakdown from hinge on the 5s
3: Indication of S. Short bias weakening.
4: Confirmed neutral now. Not long yet as price still below OH.
5: Retest and S is now confirmed.
6: Long bias from prep + S established through retest at mp zone = confirmed long
7: Some scale out. But the ret does not go back below S zone (former R).
8: Pace slows and some more is scaled out
9: Pace slows at R zone. Scale out.
10: First significant counter move. Now neutral.
11: Short bias which eventually turns to neutral because of sideways action
12: Price creeps up back to R zone, but bias has remained neutral throughout because of R above and slow pace.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1375749150271.png

 

[ammo]

i dont follow naz so see where this goes, i just noticed you are breaking down the june contract,forgive me for not seeing this earlier, this may be the blind leading the sighted,start out with a 5 year chart,the object is to know when you are near major and minor support as a parameter or extreme, see what the institutions do there since they created all of them,and work your way back..most obvious thing is the channel since 2010, we can add to this

 

[ammo]

since we are at an all time high we can start there and draw backwards, and we get this

 

[ammo]

reduced that gives us a break of 3104 to 3140 now res,see what the institutions do here,and that broken 3104 as support short term,you just keep breaking it down,so far we have 1 major res(longer trendline and one less major supp,shorter trendline,and a 3rd possible support at a line touched only twice, a 3rd touch at 3090 would make it a trendline and supp,something to be aware of and watch for a reaction,so those 3 numbers give you a framework, a visible work in progress and you can watch the market move in any direction and have your numbers in front of you,no longer a bias needed,just wait for direction and follow to target,you can still do your bar charts but you can watch smaller pic unfolding inside the bigger pic,the bigger pic represents the bigger players,the smaller pic is them nudging us along in the desired direction so they can cash in

 

[ammo]

reduced again there is another supp at 2885 in red circle

 

[dbphoenix]

Trend channels can be misleading when drawn on a log chart: