Making full time trading viable

[guru]

Lots of great answers already, so I’d only say that if it cannot be automated then it cannot be tested and verified, for example over the past 10 or 20 years. No sane investor would or should invest in something that cannot be scientifically verified, and this is not even an investable strategy when using various norms and standards. While in Europe it wouldn’t even be legal to setup a fund using such strategy.
And no honest trader would or should vouch for a strategy that wasn’t extensively tested and confirmed scientifically. So search for the truth Truth Searcher and present the real truth once you find it. Don’t just present some assumptions and good feelings about a strategy that “cannot be automated”.

 

[Truth Searcher]

We get threads like this frequently. Some commonalities:

1. Your strategy probably isn't as good as you think it is. It will decay and/or the risk profile isn't actually that attractive. That the only datapoint you have given us is avg $ profits / contract / day shows you are unfamiliar what information is actually relevant to a situation like this.

2. On the chance you actually do have the work ethic/intelligence to design a competitive trading system; seriously just go apply that unusual effort elsewhere for a year or two and grind out some working capital. The market will still be here. Bleeding your time away trying to solve a catch 22 and spending excessive time on market study when you don't even have the capital to realize any significant $ returns shows you aren't managing your current resources very effectively.

But usually the people who start these threads aren't willing to do the above because it's more about a dream then locking in incremental progress. The only way you can possibly fast-track a trading career is through a personal relationship who has capital, a lot of pre-existing trust in you, and who you could demonstrate enough to inspire confidence in your method enough to fund it.

A successful transition to trading from this point depends on a lot of very slim chances. There's no reason to be swimming upstream so hard. And for individuals who keep clinging to this idea instead of actually traveling the path of least resistance.. their persistence ironically tends to prevent their end goal from ever being realized. Put the horse before the cart.

Leaving aside the off-putting tone of your reply, some comments:-

1. Just because I haven’t given you other data points or analytics, doesn’t mean I don’t have them.

2. Without understanding my full background, experience and circumstances you are not in a position to judge if I am managing my resources optimally.

3. My advice would be not to judge so quickly - no one has a monopoly on the markets.

 

[Truth Searcher]

This is critical. If you really aren't in the game enough to go find a second or third job to fund your system you probably don't really believe in it. This is the "mean" advice people need. Unlike the startup world where some billionaire VC will give you 500,000 to try out your business - that doesn't happen here. Investors want track records, risk models, etc. None of which the average "good strategy" Joe can provide.

OP listen to this advice carefully. I'm in this process myself. I have gotten a part time job (same industry so money is alright) to fund my trading dreams so I can keep saving for retirement/life/etc and trade (it's the real only "have your cake and eat it too" an aspiring trader can hope for).

Thanks for your response- grit and determination are essential


I'd like to add that most people view trading as an escape from the fear of not being able to provide for your family. On the surface it has the same allure as a pyramid scheme - make your own hours and spend time with your family. Unlike a pyramid scheme where you'll never make a cent, trading with enough dedication and hustle applied, can actually make that happen. It's the "dedication and hustle" part the average Joe can't grasp. This includes waking up to do odd jobs, work a second job, whatever it takes to get you there. The grit that builds alone will help you as a trader.

 

[Truth Searcher]

What if you completely prepared everything it takes to trade your system live for the duration of your next vacation? Then do so.

One or two weeks trading is not worth it - expectation for the process needs to be grinded out over an extended period and over many trades.

 

[Truth Searcher]

How much of the capital - do you need ?

How much time, it would take, to raise up,the necessary capital - yourself ?

How long you're trading / practicing so far ?



* You might need to abandon your current employment, but don't abandon employment in general.



Can you work in the night shift/after noon shift ?



Is there really, absolutely , no way, to lower those expenses ?


It looks to me, overall,

like many, tiny, obstacles - in your way, problems - let's say, that create this , illusion, of unbreakable obstacle, which could be , torn apart, with few radical choices/decisions, like,

asking for another shift in the work
(yes, making the sacrifice) , then if > not > changing the job.

Your rational thinking, most likely, would say, that's the way to go, but when it comes to emotional level, it becomes difficult, e.g fear, uncertainty,comfort zone etc.

Sitting down,with your family , explaining, that expenses has to go down, in order for you to succeed , then everyone - would benefit.
(i wish that would happen, but to much about you, is unknown to us )

Hi and thanks for your thoughts- trust me I have thought about all of your points in great detail!

 

[Truth Searcher]

Lots of great answers already, so I’d only say that if it cannot be automated then it cannot be tested and verified, for example over the past 10 or 20 years. No sane investor would or should invest in something that cannot be scientifically verified, and this is not even an investable strategy when using various norms and standards. While in Europe it wouldn’t even be legal to setup a fund using such strategy.
And no honest trader would or should vouch for a strategy that wasn’t extensively tested and confirmed scientifically. So search for the truth Truth Searcher and present the real truth once you find it. Don’t just present some assumptions and good feelings about a strategy that “cannot be automated”.

A strategy doesn’t have to be automated to be tested. It can be extensively tested manually and the forward tested live. Also, no amount of previous historical data live or otherwise can truly predict future results. Rigorous and scientific testing can take different forms. Would suggest you open your mind to other perspectives and approachs

 

[fan27]

Also, the futures contract in question is the British Pound which has a tick value of 6.25 usd v 12.5 usd. This might give some more perspective.

What is the intra-day margin requirement of the British pound and how much capital do you currently have to trade?

 

[guru]

A strategy doesn’t have to be automated to be tested. It can be extensively tested manually and the forward tested live. Also, no amount of previous historical data live or otherwise can truly predict future results. Rigorous and scientific testing can take different forms. Would suggest you open your mind to other perspectives and approachs

This has nothing to do with my mind. This is what is expected and required of me, and of any professional. What you just said is a mumbo jumbo that scam artists say, though I believe you’re genuine. No one will or should treat you professionally with this type of bs. You can’t do rigorous and scientific testing by going through 3650 days with a pencil and writing some numbers. Or if you can then the strategy can be automated. And people automate strategies that are 1000x more complex, analyzing and trading full universe of tradable instruments every millisecond. You just don’t seem to be interested in finding the truth at all, which now makes me understand why you’re always “searching” for it

 

[Truth Searcher]

What is the intra-day margin requirement of the British pound and how much capital do you currently have to trade?

From memory the full margin is around 2400 usd. Drops to 1200 usd past 1300 local Irish time.
Current capital that can be deployed is 30,000 usd

 

[Truth Searcher]

This has nothing to do with my mind. This is what is expected and required of me, and of any professional. What you just said is a mumbo jumbo that scam artists say, though I believe you’re genuine. No one will or should treat you professionally with this type of bs. You can’t do rigorous and scientific testing by going through 3650 days with a pencil and writing some numbers. Or if you can then the strategy can be automated. And people automate strategies that are 1000x more complex, analyzing and trading full universe of tradable instruments every millisecond. You just don’t seem to be interested in finding the truth at all, which now makes me understand why you’re always “searching” for it

10 years of data can be built on a spreadsheet. Trust me I have done it. Not automated..Very few really have the truth and I suspect you are not one of them.