Majority of UK covid hospitalizations are fully vaxxed

jem said:
A reliable CFR is not going to be calculated if you have no ability to detect all the cases.


His bullshit about known cases is... very misleading....
Its a useless number if known cases is an unknown small fraction of the actual cases.

Confirmed cases, if an intelligent analysis of policy is to be considered, presumes that eventually you will have a reasonably accurate tally of all the cases.



https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19

cfr.png

Reliable CFRs that can be used to assess the deadliness of an outbreak and evaluate any implemented public health measures are generally obtained at the end of an outbreak, after all cases have been resolved (affected individuals either died or recovered). However, this calculation may not hold in an ongoing epidemic, because it makes two assumptions:
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Understandably... the finalized CFR is available at the end of the outbreak when all the cases and deaths are analyzed. The typical problem is that many deaths are missed while an outbreak is underway and upon analyzing the data the CFR goes up. The current CFR while a pandemic is underway is still very useful for examining policy and response.

However the CFR and IFR for a disease are different; CFR is proven and IFR is estimated. CFR is based on known cases -- for COVID this is positive cases proven by a test.

The known cases for COVID in western countries with test capacity is definitive -- trying to claim the number of COVID cases is unknown is absurd -- the positive tests define known cases.

The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is based on estimated infections -- which attempts to account for the total infections across society including people who were not tested.
 
gwb-trading said:
By definition CFR is the PROVEN Case Fatality Rate. Go talk to some scientific disease educators to you stop expressing continual ignorance.

Trying to claim that false positive or false negative tests have introduced errors in western countries on some sort of scale which impacts the CFR figure is laughable. But this is the typical nonsense put forward by clowns who claim that COVID is just a "little flu".
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You are perpetually failing at this. Bullshit CFR numbers are useless and no one uses them. CFR in the UK is like 0.2%. But that doesn’t stop vaccine priests from telling lies.
 
When you look at this NIH study below... you realize we could have easily been at natural herd immunity for the healthy people out and about... when you add up the people who were found to have antibodies and all the people who may have already developed immunity you can see why the virus would peak and roll over for each variant...



But morons acting like their proven CFR is useful... will deny it.

==
"For every diagnosed COVID-19 case in this time frame, the researchers estimate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed cases, representing an additional 16.8 million cases by July alone."



https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...-prevalence-far-exceeded-early-pandemic-cases



NIH study suggests COVID-19 prevalence far exceeded early pandemic cases

In a new study, National Institutes of Health researchers report that the prevalence of COVID-19 in the United States during spring and summer of 2020 far exceeded the known number of cases and that infection affected the country unevenly. For every diagnosed COVID-19 case in this time frame, the researchers estimate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed cases, representing an additional 16.8 million cases by July alone. The team’s analysis of blood samples from people who did not have a previously diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection, along with socioeconomic, health, and demographic data, offers insight into the undetected spread of the virus and subgroup vulnerability to undiagnosed infection.


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jem said:
When you look at this NIH study below... you realize we could have easily been at natural herd immunity for the healthy people out and about... when you add up the people who were found to have antibodies and all the people who may have already developed immunity you can see why the virus would peak and roll over for each variant...



But morons acting like their proven CFR is useful... will deny it.

==
"For every diagnosed COVID-19 case in this time frame, the researchers estimate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed cases, representing an additional 16.8 million cases by July alone."



https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...-prevalence-far-exceeded-early-pandemic-cases



NIH study suggests COVID-19 prevalence far exceeded early pandemic cases

In a new study, National Institutes of Health researchers report that the prevalence of COVID-19 in the United States during spring and summer of 2020 far exceeded the known number of cases and that infection affected the country unevenly. For every diagnosed COVID-19 case in this time frame, the researchers estimate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed cases, representing an additional 16.8 million cases by July alone. The team’s analysis of blood samples from people who did not have a previously diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection, along with socioeconomic, health, and demographic data, offers insight into the undetected spread of the virus and subgroup vulnerability to undiagnosed infection.


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So as noted in the NIH information the researchers for this study estimate that there were 4.8 infections ("undiagnosed cases") for each proven case by testing during the spring & summer of 2020. This fully backs-up what I have been stating regarding the proven Case Fatality Rate and the estimated Infection Fatality Rate.

As noted in this study and others -- the number of infections for each proven cases very early in the pandemic was high (close to 10 to 1) due to the lack of available testing at the time. As more testing became available this ratio was reduced to about 3 to 1. In the time period studied in late spring of summer of 2020 in this study the ratio was 4.8 to 1 -- which is reasonable.

This is why the estimated IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) in the U.S. is one quarter of the proven Case Fatality Rate. Recent figures being in the range of 2.0% for CFR and 0.55% for IFR for the U.S.

CFR, which is proven, is a very useful measure for addressing a disease and establishing public policy -- even while an outbreak is underway.
 
LacesOut said:
The UK COVID-19 CFR has shown a strong, downward trend since January 2021 and is currently at an all-time low of 0.186% as of 10 July 2021.
https://collateralglobal.org/article/delta-variant-vs-case-fatality-rate-in-the-uk/

CFR IS AS USELESS A METRIC AS YOU ARE A COVID POSTER
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You push an article from a COVID-denier website with charts with no data sourcing.

Of course this article is pushing the fabrication that the Delta variant is less lethal -- which has been thoroughly debunked.

Why don't you get your information from reputable sources.
 
gwb-trading said:
You push an article from a COVID-denier website with charts with no data sourcing.

Of course this article is pushing the fabrication that the Delta variant is less lethal -- which has been thoroughly debunked.

Why don't you get your information from reputable sources.
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Where is your source for 12 vaccine deaths?
Super reputable - I’m sure …just that it doesn’t exist.
Everyone is a covid denier unless they are shitting bricks and lying - like you.
 
A search proves how full of shit you are...
... one of your first quotes on this subject... was the last time you told the truth about the usefulness of the CFR during a pandemic... ...





https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ate-will-be-about-6-to-7.342021/#post-5075015

How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct


How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak


At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present




gwb-trading said:
So as noted in the NIH information the researchers for this study estimate that there were 4.8 infections ("undiagnosed cases") for each proven case by testing during the spring & summer of 2020. This fully backs-up what I have been stating regarding the proven Case Fatality Rate and the estimated Infection Fatality Rate.

As noted in this study and others -- the number of infections for each proven cases very early in the pandemic was high (close to 10 to 1) due to the lack of available testing at the time. As more testing became available this ratio was reduced to about 3 to 1. In the time period studied in late spring of summer of 2020 in this study the ratio was 4.8 to 1 -- which is reasonable.

This is why the estimated IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) in the U.S. is one quarter of the proven Case Fatality Rate. Recent figures being in the range of 2.0% for CFR and 0.55% for IFR for the U.S.

CFR, which is proven, is a very useful measure for addressing a disease and establishing public policy -- even while an outbreak is underway.
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Look at this quote from May where you just twisted and tortured logic about the usefulness of a CFR during the pandemic.

yet a few weeks earlier your definition showed the CFR could be off by an orders of magnitude...



gwb-trading said:
The CDC, WHO and other medical organizations look at the death rate based on the Case Fatality Rate for a disease. In the long term the number of cases can generally be defined by medical testing and diagnosis. In terms of cases the number becomes pretty clear.

When new disease breaks out it may take some time for the cataloging and proper attribution for deaths in cases to catch up --- like it is for COVID-19. However in the long term the CFR rate is usually spot on.

The Infection Fatality Rate is based on estimated infections. It is hard to catalog infections when they are not reported -- there are significant questions if the Infection Fatality Rate really provides any value when it is not based on actual recorded cases but projections (usually with no proof) about the number of infections.

It is interesting to note that university professor and others are making all sorts of projections about the number of COVID-19 infections based on flawed anti-body study statistics. Some claiming that the entire population of NYC has already been infected. At the same time, studies of waste in 63 cities across 39 states in the U.S. are showing the COVID-19 infection rate is only 15% to 80% above than the reported cases. Not hundreds of times more than the reported cases.
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