If you had the data to say the vaccine lasts 5 years and it had those same risks over my lifetime... I would probably take the vaccine given your scenario.
But.... Covid is not that scenario.
However... I think the way you are looking at is with a reasonable framework. We have to ball park this and weigh the risk and benefits.
For my healthy kids...no way should they take it.... but they may be forced to.
I am pretty sure they just had covid 10 days ago and it was a cold.
My wife got the shot because she works in a hospital... and because her friend's family member is a pretty well known infectious disease doc and he reevaluated his position because of the risk of long Covid. (in my opinion)
Whatever. Vaccines are going the way of required if you want to work. There will always be some unvaccinated but the big corporations and “the man” are about to stick it to you weirdos right up the bo-bo, as @TreeFrogTrader would say.
Little @Buy1Sell2 is going to be walking funny for weeks.