Sometime over the next 4 weeks, and since Christmas is coming and all activity will be to a minimum, it should be during the 4th week. And since the Monday seems to be the most favorite day to call for a sell of, the 15th will be the day the dow will drop 200 pts. I do have to mention that until then the dow will also rise 300.
Major Selloff Today!!!
- Thread starter BlueStreek
- Start date
Quote from infolode:
It's not my analysis, just a different perspective (one of many methods) to forecast.
Be that for hedging, positioning or being out of harms way.
Once again this is NOT my analysis. It was in responce to the inquiry of hels02 "So how do we gauge WHEN the market's going to do what? Think about it and let me know how you do it."
My post was an alternative method of analysis; nothing more.
Just to be clear, did you write the piece but it is just one small part of what you do, or did you not write it?
Quote from BlueStreek:
well folks, the basis for my prediction is this:
1) The market is priced for perfection.
2) At these levels, the news doesn`t matter anymore.
3) The rally (pop up) was going to happen anyway (NQ) has been used to pop the market (pre-market). (BIDU, GOOG, AAPL, DELL--All up pre-market--ended up selling off) Both Thurs. & FRi.--just a trading rally----no longterm money staying in here!
4) If the cpi number was anything but "soft landing scenario" the sell-off was going to be big.
5) That is where we are at right now: great news=little trading pop; bad news=major sell-off!
6) It will just take one event: oil, geo-political, bad economic number, dollar scare, terrorist event, tightening the carry trades, inflation, etc. to trigger a major sell-off day of 200 plus dow, 60 point plus nasdaq, 30 point plus s&p 500.
7) Sometime in the next 4 weeks we will definately have at least 1 of these days, the market is SETUP for this fall, by this very bull rally that has infatuated so many participants.
My thesis is that the BULL is priced in; it`s the BEAR that isn`t priced in right now!
Ergo, the market naturally gravitates to what NEEDS TO BE PRICED IN for a healthy market.
After all that great news the nasdaq was up 3, the QQQQ`s are STILL in their Nov. 24, trading range--and any day now the fund managers are going to lock in some profits--which will cause a mini stampede for the exits at these levels.
"Just be prepared" is all I am saying traders, with my bearish threads
Can you elaborate on #4? What numbers will be "soft landing" and what numbers will be "hard landing"? I have been a little confused recently on what that is...
well the gasoline part of the cpi will change as gas prices have risen 20-25 cents over the last 3 weeks which the report didn`t report.
education/tuition prices never go down and medical (anamolies).
the core cpi is still above their comfort level (it is declining---for 2 months)....but what if we have one geo-political event i.e., lebanon, iraq, iran, syria---and oil spikes to 68----gas back to 3.00 and we have economic pass through of fuel surcharges----airline tickets (cpi) go up 5%....etc......that would mean more inflation worries----fed may need to raise, not cut interest rates----------thus hard landing.
Housing declining even more with no relief in sight!
education/tuition prices never go down and medical (anamolies).
the core cpi is still above their comfort level (it is declining---for 2 months)....but what if we have one geo-political event i.e., lebanon, iraq, iran, syria---and oil spikes to 68----gas back to 3.00 and we have economic pass through of fuel surcharges----airline tickets (cpi) go up 5%....etc......that would mean more inflation worries----fed may need to raise, not cut interest rates----------thus hard landing.
Housing declining even more with no relief in sight!