Maintaining Self Discipline

The Linear Regression Deviation lines did move a little on the chart today when compared to a couple days ago. Funny thing is that the top bar moved a little higher up. Diagonal lines on my charts will sometimes get out of place from day to day just from the way the platform behaves, so I'm not sure if the deviation lines movement was from the indicator adjusting or simply from the platform randomly moving them. The movement was small and not enough to affect the upwards bias. I'm wondering how much of a drop would affect it.

Decided just now to see how the drop last Spring affected the deviation lines, and it turns out that they still had a strong upwards slope even on March 23, 2020, the lowest day.

So, I'm not really sure how beneficial these lines are for trading, except to use as a reminder that the general bias is still up. Not sure that would matter if the market falls. Not saying I think it will fall. I'm trying not to write what I think. But I think I will anyway. I think that the uptrend is too strong up for this to be the end of it. It should at least make an effort to retest before a major drop...if there is one, and I wouldn't be surprised if the NQ passes the moon and heads for mars, it's been moving so strong. That's the only bias I'm going to share.

Just for Fun.....a Daily Chart showing the Standard Deviation lines at the drop last Spring:
Just for fun.jpg


NQ Daily
NQ Daily Chart.jpg

NQ 15 minute
NQ 15 minute chart.jpg

ES Daily
ES Daily Chart.jpg

ES 15 minute
ES 15 minute chart.jpg
 
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I have decided to trade only the ES. Last couple days were very volatile on the NQ, and I dislike needing larger stop losses to trade it. I suppose I could wait for the volatility to die down to begin trading it again, but it seems the better decision is to stick with one thing and get to know it well. It seems the ES is more predictable than the NQ.

I will only be posting charts of the ES from now on.
 
I just had the thought that maybe I should try to have an unbiased predictions for the next day on the ES. I stopped making "predictions" because it seemed too much like guessing, because I was trying to force an opinion. This time I'm going to try to think of how I could draw future paths the ES could take and mark them on the chart. That's what professional analysts seem to do. They chart a few different paths the ES could take. I can't share all that I use for an analysis, but I'm wondering if using horizontal levels, trendlines and volume profile might be enough. So, going to give this a try this coming week and see how it goes.
 
Still not sure how I want to project significant areas on the chart for the next day. Only posting daily charts today. I plan to continue with 15 minute charts, just ran out of time today from trying to think of how to show projected areas on the daily charts.

Also, I'm trading the NQ again as my main instrument because I like the way it moves.

NQ Daily Chart
NQ Daily Chart.jpg

ES Daily Chart
ES Daily Chart.jpg
 
Trying to predict areas of the next day's price movement using a 15 minute chart is definitely a work in progress and I am not happy with what I have come up with, but it'll have to do for today. There aren't really any prediction lines yet. I placed two purple rectangles at areas of interest to me should price look like it is headed there. I also added black dotted trendlines to show intraday trends, both broken and projected.

Also, I haven't been consistent with how I'm using the gray and yellow rectangles. I think I have a couple rules for them now. They will generally be placed at the low (gray rectangle) or high (yellow rectangle) of the daily candle--except when price movement makes a different location a better placement for the low or high. For example, if the high of the day was at the close, but price opened and continued moving higher before making a distinctive low, I would likely use the ETH high for placing the yellow rectangle. And that would be because I want to use the true high, not the high only contained within the 24 hour candle.

NQ Daily Chart
NQ Daily.jpg

NQ 15 Minute Chart
NQ 15 Minute.jpg

ES Daily Chart
ES Daily.jpg

Didn't get a 15 minute ES chart done today.
 
Marked areas on the 15 minute charts that are of interest IF this week follows a similar pattern. I think it's a little clearer to see a similarity between last week and this week possibly forming on the ES. But of course we all know that past price action patterns do NOT predict future price action patterns.

ES Daily Chart
ES Daily.jpg

ES 15 Minute Chart
ES 15 minute chart.jpg

NQ Daily Chart
NQ Daily.jpg

NQ 15 Minute Chart
NQ 15 minute.jpg
 
Did some thinking today about why I am posting charts. The primary reason is that it's helped me to be disciplined in spending time on the higher timeframes. I have decided that I don't want to do any more projecting of where price could go the following day. I will continue to draw trendlines and rectangles out into the future and maybe comment occasionally. I hope others can find some benefit in seeing how I'm using trendlines and horizontal levels to help make sense of price action.

I also have decided that since I need to work on pattern recognition I will be posting 15 minute charts with patterns marked for the last day or two. I might not post these every day, because it does get a little time consuming to do this type of chartwork.

Today's patterns were the ones found in Scott Barkley's Pattern Recognition Tool. I'm not trying to promote his site and I haven never taken a course from him. However, he does have a good video on the importance of putting in the time to train your mind to see patterns quickly. That's something I still need to work on. His website says it's still available for free download at this link: http://proacttraders.com/pattern-recognition-trainer

Pattern Recognition-NQ
NQ 15 Minute Chart - Patterns.jpg

Pattern Recognition-ES
ES 15 Minute Chart - Patterns.jpg

NQ Daily
NQ Daily.jpg

NQ 15 Minute
NQ 15 Minute Chart.jpg

ES Daily
ES Daily.jpg

ES 15 Minute
ES 15 Minute Chart.jpg
 
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Yes self discipline is important in trading. You need to be aware of your actions in a way that if you deviate in one way or another you manage to lead yourself back on track. It is therefore important to have a plan, stick to it, and whenever you deviate you are able to notice it and make yourself adapt back to that original plan.
 
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