Maintaining Self Discipline

[studentofthemarkets]

NQ is at All Time Highs and ES might be getting there.

Guesses for tomorrow:

NQ High 14369.50
NQ Low 14213.00

ES High 4259.00
ES Close 4238.00
ES Low 4219.75

I looked at the way the NQ candles behaved previously when at All Time Highs, and there's nothing consistent about it. Sometimes it reverses and sometimes it continues going up.

The Ninjatrader NQ charts have a black trendline underneath All Time Highs to visually make them stand out.

End of June last year we were trending up at All Time Highs.



I used a measured move approach to try to find a projection for tomorrow's high on the NQ. A similar pattern played out In the middle of May, so I made a similar projection with a little bit of an adjustment. Doesn't mean it will do the same thing...this week has it's own uniqueness, but it is something that gives a framework to the possibility of where tomorrow's high could go. Of course, it could go anywhere...






While trading today I had the High, Low and Close levels on my charts to monitor if I was going to be right or way off. I don’t think that’s the mindset I want to develop. For one thing, it’s not about whether or not my guesses are right, it’s about “trading what you see.” Mapping out what has happened on a chart is only to help with recognizing in real time what is likely to work, not to want price action to end up doing what I think it will.

So, I’ll finish the week with guessing at numbers for the High and Low, just because it was what I determined to do, but starting next week I think I’ll only be marking significant levels on the charts with arrows for directional bias and maybe my thoughts.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Guesses:

NQ High 14320
NQ Low 14160

ES High 4248
ES Close 4235
ES Low 4220

The only thing I feel fairly confident about is that I think the ES and NQ will likely break their lows from today.

With today's small price ranges, it would make sense to have an engulfing candle tomorrow on each of the indexes. However, I opted to go with today's highs for tomorrow's highs too because previous similar patterns show we are likely to have a drop tomorrow. Although I'm uncertain how much of a drop, it seems like the underlying trend is still very much to the upside. In fact, if it drops to my levels or beyond, depending on the time of day...I may place a demo trade with a large stoploss to see if I can catch it if it tries to head back up to break the highs.

Just a heads up: both charts show the beginning of my tomorrow already, even though it's still daytime where I live. So, what I'm referring to as today is the 2nd to last candle and the new tiny candles starting to form are what I'm referring to as tomorrow.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

This will be my last day to try to predict/guess the High and Low of the day. I'd rather place on my charts areas of interest and possible scenarios that could play out.

We've had 4 days of upwards movement. Wednesday closed below it's open to make a red candle but did not close below the previous day's low and made a higher high than the previous day, on both ES and NQ.

On the NQ chart shown, the longest period of upward movement, without breaking the previous day's low, was 8 bars.

On the ES chart shown, the longest period of upward movement without breaking the previous day's low, was 12 bars. That was surprising to see.

Since we're at All Time Highs again, there's not a lot of structure to frame resistance around and only a little for support.

I took a look at the NQ first and set the predicted high at today's high. I didn't think we were likely to break today's high, partly based on the number of up days in a row and the wick at the top of the daily candle. Then I looked at the ES and saw it not only broke into All Time Highs, but closed at its candle top, which led me to place tomorrow's candle as breaking higher on the ES but not higher on the NQ. I don't think this is right, but I'm not going to bother to change the levels. These are just guesses anyway.

NQ High 14220
NQ Low 14231

ES High 4284
ES Close 4266
ES Low 4248

 

[studentofthemarkets]

After last week's attempts to guess at future price direction, I have decided that guessing is similar to gambling and I need to work on NOT reading into price what I think it will do. Of course, we have to have biases, or we'd never take a trade. So, there is a time to have one. But it's not for when I'm charting half a day before I take a trade.

I think I'll continue to do some basic chartwork and post them here. It helps me to get it done. If I do even a little bit of chartwork on the daily charts, like I did last week, then I don't have as much to do in the early morning when I actually trade.

Today I'm adding the 15 min charts. First chart is the 24 hour chart, then the Regular Trading Hours chart, then just the overnight hours. I have very little feel for the overnight sessions and wanted to see them separately. The rectangles were left in place when changing the hours shown.

NQ Daily


NQ 15 min


NQ 15 min RTH


NQ 15 min Overnight Session


ES Daily


ES 15 min


ES 15 min RTH


ES 15 min Overnight Session

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Same charts as yesterday's, just updated. On the 15 minute charts most of the rectangles and trendlines were automatically copied from the 15 Minute All Sessions chart and sometimes the lines don't align very well. Some of them I adjusted, but for the most part I'm not touching them because I want to see them with the missing data.

I marked places on the 15 minute charts where removing a session did not produce a gap, opening where it had previously closed.

NQ Daily Chart


NQ 15 Minute All Sessions


NQ 15 Minute RTH


NQ 15 Minute Overnight


ES Daily Chart


ES 15 Minute All Sessions


ES 15 Minute RTH


ES 15 Minute Overnight

 

[studentofthemarkets]

On the 15 minute charts the trendlines aren't copying correctly from the all sessions chart, so I'm having to put the trendlines on each chart separately. The rectangles copy just fine. I used one Andrew's Pitchfork today, but that was placed after the day was over. I never use them while actually trading because I think there is too much subjectivity to the beginning points. However, once in a while, it seems like a pitchfork will reveal a trend direction a little better than normal trendline channels will.

NQ Daily Chart


NQ 15 Minute All Sessions


NQ 15 Minute RTH


NQ 15 Minute Overnight Sessions


ES Daily Chart


ES 15 Minute All Sessions


ES 15 Minute RTH


ES 15 Minute Overnight Sessions

 

[expiated]

After last week's attempts to guess at future price direction, I have decided that guessing is similar to gambling and I need to work on NOT reading into price what I think it will do. Of course, we have to have biases, or we'd never take a trade. So, there is a time to have one. But it's not for when I'm charting half a day before I take a trade.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

NQ Daily Chart


NQ 15 Minute All Sessions


NQ 15 Minute RTH


NQ 15 Minute Overnight Sessions


ES Daily Chart


ES 15 Minute All Sessions


ES 15 Minute RTH


ES 15 Minute Overnight Sessions

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Thought I'd try out the standard deviation channel indicator on the daily charts. It's new to me. I like the way it looks on charts, but I'm not sure how reliable it is for predicting where price will go in the future. It always repaints to keep it current with price, although on a daily chart I think the repainting should be slow enough that it wouldn't really matter.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Crazy day in the NQ, but today's candle on the daily chart doesn't look unusual.

NQ Daily Chart


NQ 15 Minute Chart


ES Daily Chart


ES 15 Minute Chart