Maintaining Self Discipline

[studentofthemarkets]

Lost 63 ticks. And one of those trades had positive demo slippage...so it shows 6 ticks less of a loss than it should have been. So, really, I should have lost 69 ticks today.

Trade 1: I think it was OK to take. Since it was the 3rd candle after the open, it was risky and I moved to BE kind of quickly. I think the set up was OK for an entry and moving to BE when I did was right. But because it was so soon after the open, I need to realize that it's a riskier time of day and might not be worth giving up a trade for a chance to get a breakout. FOMO: Didn't want it to take off without me so took a risky trade.

Trade 2: I think this is a trade that with some study I can make some rules for getting a more precise entry. Trade direction was right, but stop loss was too tight...or maybe it wasn't, and my entry wasn't timed as well as it should have been.

Trade 3: This trade reveals a fatal flaw in my thinking. After the beginning of a trend starts, I'm reluctant to "chase a move." This happens a lot. It was clearly going up, but I didn't want to get in late, so rather than focusing on trying to get in with the direction it was already going, I decided I would short ONLY. And then started reading into every candle short scenarios. I got into a short because I kept thinking of all the reasons it COULD drop, KNOWING that it had just made a higher high, higher low, indicators all pointed up except one, which changed back to up just after I checked it. FOMO--sometimes drops can happen fast and timing the entry can be difficult (for me) and so I decided to get in early...before it began dropping. ????Why????did I do that????? Some of this must have come from impatience at watching the chart thinking I have to wait to go short, and I felt like "I" had waited long enough. As if the NQ cared how I felt about it.

Should I change my mindset about only getting into a trend at the beginning of it? I think so. I already have a plan for getting into the retracement of a trend....and indicators that help with continuation trades, not reversal trades. I didn't follow them for the 3rd trade....I traded against them.

So, just to be clear, I'm changing my thinking from seeing a trend and thinking I don't want to be in this trend because I'll be getting in too late, leading to reading a countertrend scenario into every candle, to focusing on seeing a trend for the potential to go farther than I think it will and looking for a way to trade WITH the trend...while still keeping in mind the potential for a reversal.

As frustrating as it is to only get 3 chances a day, it does help me think through each trade a lot more than I was when taking many trades a day. It also made me try my hardest to find a nice trade entry with my 3rd trade....I tried so hard that I broke my rules and imposed my own scenario....but I didn't give in to revenge trading and taking more trades. These were the only trades I've taken today...and I'm happy to have accomplished that goal for today, especially since I ended in losses. Also, I kept my losses to a reasonable amount. Kept my 3rd trade at 30 ticks for a stop loss rather than my old habit of increasing the risk on my final trade of a losing day.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Made 135 demo ticks. No losses.

Honestly, today I wondered if I really want to be a trader. I was extremely stressed while in these trades....thankfully each trade was less than 5 minutes. I'm not usually this stressed when trading, which made me realize, that is probably why I've always wanted to take a lot of trades everyday.

It's much less stressful to have a few losing trades if you think you have several more chances to make it back....and when you have a bad day and DON'T make it back, the stress of each individual trade is already over and done with, so you're simply left with desires to revenge trade or trying to handle the emotions of a losing day.

Lately I've been comparing short term trading to a soccer goalie...I was back up goalie and only played for a year, but I would get very bored watching all the excitement on the field, then when the ball came close to the goal, it was intense, had to read the possibilities and act quickly. I actually didn't like being goalie, (except those moments when everything went smoothly) but preferred the other positions.

Anyhow, I'm hoping with more practice with only using 3 trades a day, I'll become familiar with how to manage them and maybe it won't be as stressful as it was today. If not, my back up plan is to go back to using a 30 tick stop loss and a 60 tick target because I think I can make that work consistently. In fact, my last trade today, I set up as a 30 stop loss and 60 target but closed it early...just in case it reversed.

The first trade was a little late on the entry, the 2nd trade was the wrong direction, the 3rd trade was about right. Both winning trades could have been trailed easily to make more profits, but that always comes with a risk of it retracing and taking out gains, so I really don't know if I should have trailed or if it was better to be safe and take the profits a little early.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Basically a breakeven day. Although the chart shows I made 12 ticks, the stop loss on the first trade should have been set to 40 ticks, and it was set to 30 ticks, so I really should be at +2 ticks for the day.

I'm still having a hard time with only taking 3 trades in a day. The last trade I was ahead, then it retraced and I had a hard time knowing if I should close it while still in a little bit of profit. If I had closed it during the retracement I would have ended with a loss for the day. If it had dropped down to my stop loss then I would have ended the day at -100 ticks...and if I include the amount I should have lost, then -110 ticks. I guess that's when you have to evaluate how likely the trade is to keep going in the same direction....that's what I did, and thankfully was right. I didn't even try to get more out of this trade. I knew going into it that I would only increase the target if price was really pushing up quickly, otherwise, I would be happy with making back my losses. It turns out, that target was exactly where it turn around and headed back down far below my stop loss, so it all worked out right...this time.

I really need a rule that I can take more trades in a day if I close out at BE. But I will wait to add that because I really need to work on accuracy with just three trades. I don't think I took good trades today and it might be a while before I consistently take 3 really great trade entries.

I might need to avoid trading the open. It's too easy to be wrong. I guess FOMO is big part of why I keep trying to trade it. Sometimes the largest moves happen then, and the rest of the day doesn't give a good trend trade....but if I set my goal to being accurate, and happy with a smaller trend later in the day, that would be best. So, I'm not saying I won't trade the open, but I'm gonna try to focus on spreading my trades throughout the rest of the morning.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

I spent some time going over my trades list for the last 3 weeks and trying to find my best time of day to trade.

The 1st 5 minute candle at the Open has not been profitable for me.
The 2nd 5 minute candle after the Open has given some very profitable trades.
Between 8:45 and 9:00 CT has not been very profitable.
Between 9:00 and 9:05 has been profitable.
After 9:05 but before 9:30 was not profitable.
After 9:30 but before 10:00 was slightly profitable and easier to manage trades.
After 10:00 was not profitable.

Most of the profits I've made have come from entering between 8:35 and 8:45. However, I also took a lot of losing trades during this time. It would be better to trade this with a plan that gives several attempts with very tight stop losses. I'm not ready to do that yet.

I feel like I should begin trading live soon. I have many memories of bad trading when live, and I really don't want to repeat them, so I came up with a plan to help with the transition.

Even though I will hate it, I am only going to take 2 trades a day. The reason for that, is that when going to live, I really don't want to take 3 trades a day. If I lose all 3 every day, for a long time, it will be very hard on me emotionally. I would rather lose only 2 trades....and see if I can get more precise with my entries.

My consolation is that if I can get through the transition to live trading and build habits of disciplined trading while starting slowly, if I can ever get to the place where I'm consistently growing my account, then I can slowly increase the number of trades I take...or maybe the number of contracts.

I think I will have an easier time managing my trades by waiting until 9 am to trade. I won't be as profitable as quickly as trading the open can be, but I shouldn't have the drawdowns and high stop out rate either.

So, 2 trades a day, and no trades until 9:00 am CT.

Edit: I just thought of a better solution. I'm allowed 1 BE trade. So, I can take 2 trades in a day, unless one of them is at BE or BE+ up to 20 ticks or so, then I can have a 3rd trade. But no more than 1 BE. This should help with avoiding a winning trade becoming a losing trade because I can get out at BE and then get right back in if it still a good trade....at least, I hope I use it that way, and not as an excuse to take a risky trade and move to BE quickly.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Made 22 ticks today.
Net 163 + 22 = 185 ticks for the week.
Net 1007 + 22 = 1029 ticks for the last 4 weeks.

I switched over to a different demo trading account starting today for my demo trades and so beginning next week my end of the week wrap up will only include trades starting from today and will keep track my new plan of 2 to 3 trades a day and starting after 9 am CT.

It threw me off a little to switch charts around for the new demo account, so I wasn't as engaged with watching price, but I also have quit for the day a little early because I feel like it's very choppy. I drew a lot of paper trade lines....especially around the Open, since I'm not really demo trading it anymore and most of those "stopped out" or I got out at BE, and I guess that's partly because it didn't trend, so I'm happy to take a small profit and be done for the day.

I'm not trading as well as I want to. I take so many losses that it's embarrassing to post them. My win rate is less than 50%. But somehow, I guess because I did catch some larger moves? I keep getting ahead a little at a time each week.

Today's trade:



Trade List for the week (does not include today's trade):



Trade List for the last 4 weeks (does not include today's trade):

 

[studentofthemarkets]

I've decided to begin trading at 8:45 CT instead of 9:00 each day.

I took another look at the trades I had taken during that time for the last 3 weeks and it seems like it's a good time of the day to trade....not as crazy as the open, yet can still give plenty of ticks.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Made 14 ticks. Somehow my attached order box got unchecked. Probably happened on Friday when I was configuring a Break Even button. I panicked a little when I got in the trade and didn't see the stop loss or target orders....because they hadn't been placed. So, immediately I closed the trade and spent a while trying to find what happened to my stop loss. That threw me off and so I'm done for the day. Also, I have something else going on today and need to stop early.

14 ticks is better than losing.

I didn't trade the 2 big moves this morning. By only allowing a trade starting at 8:45 am, I would have had to have entered right at the beginning of 8:45 and I didn't want to jump in like that....didn't see that big of a move coming either. The trades to the short side I might have taken if they had consolidated a little at the top first, but a nearly straight drop down is hard for me to feel confident about getting into.

The trade I took wasn't the best...I wasn't sure it would go up more, but smaller timeframewise, it was a somewhat safe trade, and it wasn't a trade I planned to hold onto if price turned around.

Still not trading to the short side very well.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Made 20 ticks.

This was NOT a day well traded...even though I did end in profit.

This trade was not in the best location. Watching the charts for so long (50 minutes) without taking a trade and missing out of the drop down at the open and the reversal up made me very impatient. I thought I saw price action that would lead to another drop, but in hindsight, it was only building a triangle before trending up. Those are the hardest structures for me to recognize and stay out of.

Taking 20 ticks really quickly is not the best and most consistent way to trade. I'd rather work on selecting better entries and making myself wait for the target. I'm still not sure why I closed it early. I was relieved to be in profit, and then once I was in profit, I didn't want to take another trade and risk losing it all. It turns out that my stop loss would have been hit if I had stayed in the trade and I think ending in profit today was more due to chance than good decision making.

Overall, for the last 3 days of trading, even though every trade has been in profit, I've made less than what I'm allowing for a down day. That's upside down risk to reward. I might be able to tighten my stop loss. None of my last 3 trades have needed much of a stop loss. That might be the best solution if I continue to trade after the first 30 minutes of the Open.

I feel like I'm still adjusting to taking fewer trades and trading later in the morning, so maybe, once I'm more comfortable with the changes, I'll feel more confident about holding onto a trade for longer.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

I made 9 ticks today. Lost 32 ticks on the first trade. Made 41 ticks on the second trade. Net gain of 9 ticks.

I've decided to go back to trading with a 30 tick stop loss and 60 tick target, although I will adjust both the stops and targets. I had been having some success without adjusting them, and I think if I adjust them, it will work even better, although with the way I've been trading lately, I'm questioning that.

The last few days I've been getting out of trades when there is only a little profit. I know that taking winners too fast and staying in losers too long is not going to work, but it's so easy to do. So, in addition to the difficulties of calling the trade direction right, and the entry right, I have to work on psychological factors. Easiest way to do that is to base my trades around the 30sl 60tp trades because it gives me something consistent to work with.

I'm not going to complain about making 9 ticks. I was down by 32 plus 10 while in the 2nd trade, and I'm super relieved to not have any losses.

I think another month at this and I'll be much more consistent....but we shall see.

No charts today.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

I'm considering following these rules:

30 ticks stop loss, no adjusting
60 ticks target, no adjusting
I HAVE to take 3 trades every day
I HAVE to wait 15 minutes between trades

I know this has some problems with it.....like why sit in a trade that goes immediately against me...
Also, why not just trail if I happened to get into a really good trend? At least give it a try?
And what if I just can't find 3 great trades in a day? Will I settle for low probability trades just to follow the rule?

But, in spite of those issues, here are the benefits:

I know my losses will never go over 96 ticks (except for slippage).
I don't have to worry about managing a trade when I'm in it.
And here's the real reason: I won't be following my emotions for getting out of a trade too quickly, either not giving it enough room, and closing for a loss, or being satisfied with small profits.

Instead, it frees me up to do what I need to work on: find at least 3 areas every day that are high probability set ups.

If I can't make this work, then I'll change my plan. But it's worth a try.

Still not sure I'll do this...I'll probably try it tomorrow, but if I lose the first trade, I might change this plan.

Anyhow, if I can just get good at doing this plan, then eventually, actually managing the trades while I'm in them, will be the next step to work on, and I can work on it slowly, small changes at a time.

Also, I'm wondering....how strict should I be with this? Are these just guidelines, but I can break them if I really feel like it? If I get in the habit to making exceptions, I'll make too many. Or will I?

I think, for starters, I might try it and see how it goes for a day or two. OK...here is one exeption.....I will let myself trail if I've locked in 30 ticks....and I can only lock in 30 ticks when it reaches about 60.

And I can let myself close at a loss if it looks like it's going to end up in a loss. Oh no, this is too vague.

Probably best to go back to the plan of no adjusting.