Around the open today the NQ averaged around 107 ticks per 1 minute candle whereas the YM averaged around 29 ticks. The thing that I need to find out is if I can get into profit with the YM with a probability rate that is profitable consistently and better than what I can do on the NQ. If so, then that is safer for me to trade than the NQ.
Maintaining Self Discipline
- Thread starter studentofthemarkets
- Start date
Worked over YM charts today and just can't bring myself to trade it. The NQ is so much cleaner and trends better.
I've been disappointed in myself for not being able to get into trades I can trail on the NQ and I've been trying to figure out why I'm either getting the entries wrong or when I do get them right I close to early. I rearranged my charts today, changing the colors and adding an indicator to emphasize some of the price action that I keep getting wrong. The settings I have now would have worked to help with not taking Friday's losing trades. Now I'll need to see how it works this next week.
I'm thinking about using 3 contracts. I might have a set target for the first contract, trail the second and leave the 3rd at BE until....well, I might trail that one too, but I'm trying to plan how to be profitable without relying on it. If I can make enough profits off the first 2 contracts consistently to counteract my losses for 3 contracts at a time when I do lose, then I can always leave one at BE and I don't have to worry about trailing it. It'll get stopped out or it won't. And once in a while it should make a lot. So, that's my plan for trying to overcome whatever it is that's been keeping me from being able to capture a trend.
I've been disappointed in myself for not being able to get into trades I can trail on the NQ and I've been trying to figure out why I'm either getting the entries wrong or when I do get them right I close to early. I rearranged my charts today, changing the colors and adding an indicator to emphasize some of the price action that I keep getting wrong. The settings I have now would have worked to help with not taking Friday's losing trades. Now I'll need to see how it works this next week.
I'm thinking about using 3 contracts. I might have a set target for the first contract, trail the second and leave the 3rd at BE until....well, I might trail that one too, but I'm trying to plan how to be profitable without relying on it. If I can make enough profits off the first 2 contracts consistently to counteract my losses for 3 contracts at a time when I do lose, then I can always leave one at BE and I don't have to worry about trailing it. It'll get stopped out or it won't. And once in a while it should make a lot. So, that's my plan for trying to overcome whatever it is that's been keeping me from being able to capture a trend.
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Another losing day.
Premarket: -60 ticks
Trading the Open: -77 ticks
Trend Account: -36 ticks
Live Account: -23 ticks
I used 3 contracts per trade in each account, except the Live Account. I also used 20 ticks or less for stop losses. Using a larger stop loss of 40 ticks would have made the Trading the Open Account profitable but would have resulted in much larger losses in the Trend Account.
Why did I lose in every account today?
Premarket: The 3 losing trades were taken in the right direction, but price ranged before breaking out. Also, the time of day was wrong, they were taken in the 15 minutes before the NYO....I knew that wasn't great time to trade, but because it looked like it was going to go down, I kept trying.
What could I do to change that? Be more cautious around the NYO. Be more alert to ranging and not trending price action. I'm not sure how I can know if it's going to range or trend, but I can limit how often I try to get into a trend...I hate losing 3 trades in attempting to get into one trend and still missing the trend. I think there were clues I didn't listen to when trading and need to spend some time looking them over again. Also, I'm not sure I have a good set up I'm following in these kinds of trades. I have a habit of waiting for confirmation and when price is ranging, that usually means I took the trade at the wrong place in the range. I need to rethink what I'm doing.
Note: I took the first 2 trades in the Trend Account accidentally. It will throw off my weekly stats and make it look like the Trend account did better and the Premarket did worse than they really have done, but there's no way to fix it.
Trading the Open: a 40 tick sl would have made this account profitable today. I used 20 ticks. Got the direction right on 3 trades and wrong on 1 trade, however the tight stop loss hurt and I ended up with 3 losing trades and 1 winning trade.
Trend Account: If I had used a 40 tick sl in this account, it would not have resulted in any more winners and my losses would have been much larger. The problems here were more a matter of not having precise entry rules and trailing rules and sticking to them. I've known for a while I need to write of very precise entry and exit rules. Although I have tried, there are so many variations I use that I gave up. This means I'm trading with a general idea of what I want to see for a trade, but I'm leaving too much room for "me" to get in the way. This might be my biggest problem, and I've known for a while about it, and I haven't fixed it yet.
So, I guess I found where my focus needs to be. I really need to figure out and write out exact entry and exit rules. I'm setting a goal to get that done today or in the next few days.
I took a live trade today which also stopped out. And once again, looking at it now, it wasn't exactly in alignment with how my original plan states. I had rules when I traded the NQ months ago. I guess I've been so busy studying the price action from last 3 weeks since coming back to the NQ that I've neglected reviewing my old rules and trying to improve on them. It all takes a lot of time.
Premarket: -60 ticks
Trading the Open: -77 ticks
Trend Account: -36 ticks
Live Account: -23 ticks
I used 3 contracts per trade in each account, except the Live Account. I also used 20 ticks or less for stop losses. Using a larger stop loss of 40 ticks would have made the Trading the Open Account profitable but would have resulted in much larger losses in the Trend Account.
Why did I lose in every account today?
Premarket: The 3 losing trades were taken in the right direction, but price ranged before breaking out. Also, the time of day was wrong, they were taken in the 15 minutes before the NYO....I knew that wasn't great time to trade, but because it looked like it was going to go down, I kept trying.
What could I do to change that? Be more cautious around the NYO. Be more alert to ranging and not trending price action. I'm not sure how I can know if it's going to range or trend, but I can limit how often I try to get into a trend...I hate losing 3 trades in attempting to get into one trend and still missing the trend. I think there were clues I didn't listen to when trading and need to spend some time looking them over again. Also, I'm not sure I have a good set up I'm following in these kinds of trades. I have a habit of waiting for confirmation and when price is ranging, that usually means I took the trade at the wrong place in the range. I need to rethink what I'm doing.
Note: I took the first 2 trades in the Trend Account accidentally. It will throw off my weekly stats and make it look like the Trend account did better and the Premarket did worse than they really have done, but there's no way to fix it.
Trading the Open: a 40 tick sl would have made this account profitable today. I used 20 ticks. Got the direction right on 3 trades and wrong on 1 trade, however the tight stop loss hurt and I ended up with 3 losing trades and 1 winning trade.
Trend Account: If I had used a 40 tick sl in this account, it would not have resulted in any more winners and my losses would have been much larger. The problems here were more a matter of not having precise entry rules and trailing rules and sticking to them. I've known for a while I need to write of very precise entry and exit rules. Although I have tried, there are so many variations I use that I gave up. This means I'm trading with a general idea of what I want to see for a trade, but I'm leaving too much room for "me" to get in the way. This might be my biggest problem, and I've known for a while about it, and I haven't fixed it yet.
So, I guess I found where my focus needs to be. I really need to figure out and write out exact entry and exit rules. I'm setting a goal to get that done today or in the next few days.
I took a live trade today which also stopped out. And once again, looking at it now, it wasn't exactly in alignment with how my original plan states. I had rules when I traded the NQ months ago. I guess I've been so busy studying the price action from last 3 weeks since coming back to the NQ that I've neglected reviewing my old rules and trying to improve on them. It all takes a lot of time.
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Another losing day.
Premarket: -22 ticks
Trading the Open: -46 ticks
Trend Account: -124
No live trades
I'm starting to like the premarket more than the other accounts it because the morning is less volatile and I have time to think about the trades. This account could have been profitable if I had managed the contracts differently. I'm thinking I might make this time of day the focus of my studies.
The Open and the Trend accounts trades aren't going the way I want them too. I had too many losses today in both accounts.
Trading the breakout in either direction from the beginning of the open isn't working. I'm thinking I might change my strategy when trading the Open to only taking long trades trades after a down move. I don't always get them, but those sometimes have a lot of potential and if I make those my only focus, then I can see how that plays out over time. The 2nd trade taken in the Trend Account is an example of that type of trade.
In the Trend Account I haven't been spacing my trades out through the day. Although the trends at the beginning of the day usually travel far, they have been difficult for me to get into safely. Price action seems more stable after the first hour or so even if it doesn't trend as much. What I think I'll do is spread out my losing trades so that I don't have to finish up trading before my quitting time. I'll allow one losing trade before 9 am CT, one before 10 am CT and one before 11 am CT. There's no limit on how many winning trades I can take. I'm using 3 contracts per trade and using the net loss or profit of all 3 for determining if it is a winning or losing trade.
Premarket: -22 ticks
Trading the Open: -46 ticks
Trend Account: -124
No live trades
I'm starting to like the premarket more than the other accounts it because the morning is less volatile and I have time to think about the trades. This account could have been profitable if I had managed the contracts differently. I'm thinking I might make this time of day the focus of my studies.
The Open and the Trend accounts trades aren't going the way I want them too. I had too many losses today in both accounts.
Trading the breakout in either direction from the beginning of the open isn't working. I'm thinking I might change my strategy when trading the Open to only taking long trades trades after a down move. I don't always get them, but those sometimes have a lot of potential and if I make those my only focus, then I can see how that plays out over time. The 2nd trade taken in the Trend Account is an example of that type of trade.
In the Trend Account I haven't been spacing my trades out through the day. Although the trends at the beginning of the day usually travel far, they have been difficult for me to get into safely. Price action seems more stable after the first hour or so even if it doesn't trend as much. What I think I'll do is spread out my losing trades so that I don't have to finish up trading before my quitting time. I'll allow one losing trade before 9 am CT, one before 10 am CT and one before 11 am CT. There's no limit on how many winning trades I can take. I'm using 3 contracts per trade and using the net loss or profit of all 3 for determining if it is a winning or losing trade.
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Finally broke my losing streak!!
Premarket Account: No trades
Trading the Open: +123 ticks
Trend Account: +3 ticks
I had a total of 3 losing trades and 7 winning trades (however 1 of those I closed all before 1st target). I'm counting 3 contracts as one trade, and using net profit or loss per 3 contracts.
I should have had more profit with this winrate. I'm not managing the 3 contracts to their fullest potential.
Many times I would get the first contract off at about 20 ticks but not get the 40 tick target that the 2nd contract was set for and closed it for either around 20 ticks or closer to BE. I think the best way to manage this is to trail the 2nd contract more tightly, and even close it right at 20 ticks, if price action begins to turn down there. Or perhaps set the target for 30 ticks and wait to trail it around 30 ticks, moving the target higher, if it continues.
Leaving the 3rd contract at BE after hitting the first target meant that AFTER getting the first target, this contract was closed for 0, 1, 58, 12, 1, and 1 ticks. I'm not including the last trade (closed early, just wanted out). So, out of the 7 winning trades, only 1 was closed with an acceptable 3rd target goal of 58 ticks. Of course, if I'd entered in trending conditions, then the 3rd contract might have done better.
NOTE TO SELF: Don't expect a runner if I'm entering in ranging price action.
In the trend account, I did wait patiently for a trend, but after the first push up in the morning, which I got a tiny portion of in the Trading the Open account, it was more difficult to find the trend. I didn't like the price action so stayed out, until I figured I wasn't going to get a trade in if I just kept waiting....so traded the trend account when it was ranging, hoping it would break out. And then once I started taking trades in it, I kept overtrading....I kind of noticed I was doing that, so slowed down a little, but I do still have issues with it. I try to get in to the current direction without stepping back and asking if I have a legitimate reason to believe it's going to go somewhere.
So, lots to work on, still, but I'm thankful to have better accuracy today.
Premarket Account: No trades
Trading the Open: +123 ticks
Trend Account: +3 ticks
I had a total of 3 losing trades and 7 winning trades (however 1 of those I closed all before 1st target). I'm counting 3 contracts as one trade, and using net profit or loss per 3 contracts.
I should have had more profit with this winrate. I'm not managing the 3 contracts to their fullest potential.
Many times I would get the first contract off at about 20 ticks but not get the 40 tick target that the 2nd contract was set for and closed it for either around 20 ticks or closer to BE. I think the best way to manage this is to trail the 2nd contract more tightly, and even close it right at 20 ticks, if price action begins to turn down there. Or perhaps set the target for 30 ticks and wait to trail it around 30 ticks, moving the target higher, if it continues.
Leaving the 3rd contract at BE after hitting the first target meant that AFTER getting the first target, this contract was closed for 0, 1, 58, 12, 1, and 1 ticks. I'm not including the last trade (closed early, just wanted out). So, out of the 7 winning trades, only 1 was closed with an acceptable 3rd target goal of 58 ticks. Of course, if I'd entered in trending conditions, then the 3rd contract might have done better.
NOTE TO SELF: Don't expect a runner if I'm entering in ranging price action.
In the trend account, I did wait patiently for a trend, but after the first push up in the morning, which I got a tiny portion of in the Trading the Open account, it was more difficult to find the trend. I didn't like the price action so stayed out, until I figured I wasn't going to get a trade in if I just kept waiting....so traded the trend account when it was ranging, hoping it would break out. And then once I started taking trades in it, I kept overtrading....I kind of noticed I was doing that, so slowed down a little, but I do still have issues with it. I try to get in to the current direction without stepping back and asking if I have a legitimate reason to believe it's going to go somewhere.
So, lots to work on, still, but I'm thankful to have better accuracy today.
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I am not going to place another trade until I have specific entry rules written up that I can see work with a high probability rate when backtesting.
I know I keep saying I'll get to this, but I keep finding other things, trading related, to work on. Some of it has been studying charts and trying to find what works, but I haven't been writing things down.
I need to know what my exact set ups are, be able to identify them easily and be able to count how many times the set ups work and how many times they fail.
I think some of these trades would have worked if price was going to trend higher around the first 30 minutes of the open. But because it didn't, where I thought price would continue up, it turned down...which should have been a clue to stop and re-evaluate. I need to have specific rules of warning when to stay out.
If I can't figure this out, I'm gonna be stuck in this rut of ongoing losing streaks.
Premarket: +119 ticks
Trading the Open: -189 ticks
Trend Account: +17 ticks
Net Loss: -53 ticks
Didn't follow my plan in the trend account to stretch out my losers throughout the day. I have a real problem with revenge trading. At least I haven't taken more than my allowed number of trades today.
I know I keep saying I'll get to this, but I keep finding other things, trading related, to work on. Some of it has been studying charts and trying to find what works, but I haven't been writing things down.
I need to know what my exact set ups are, be able to identify them easily and be able to count how many times the set ups work and how many times they fail.
I think some of these trades would have worked if price was going to trend higher around the first 30 minutes of the open. But because it didn't, where I thought price would continue up, it turned down...which should have been a clue to stop and re-evaluate. I need to have specific rules of warning when to stay out.
If I can't figure this out, I'm gonna be stuck in this rut of ongoing losing streaks.
Premarket: +119 ticks
Trading the Open: -189 ticks
Trend Account: +17 ticks
Net Loss: -53 ticks
Didn't follow my plan in the trend account to stretch out my losers throughout the day. I have a real problem with revenge trading. At least I haven't taken more than my allowed number of trades today.
Attachments
Trailing stops are usually not a good way to stay in a trade or to maximize profit on a trade.
Generally, I find that trailing stops only work when it's a strong momentum move. These happen once in a while, but certainly not always.
When they do - you can squeeze out even more than initially planned by trailing aggressively.
Generally, I find that trailing stops only work when it's a strong momentum move. These happen once in a while, but certainly not always.
When they do - you can squeeze out even more than initially planned by trailing aggressively.
I think I have it figured out that trailing too tightly, or moving to BE too quickly when the trade gets a small amount of profit means it's usually going to get stopped out. That's happened a lot with the 3rd contract that I've been trying to keep at BE in case price takes off. Those strong momentum moves are the best for trailing. It's always hard to know how far back to trail. I have a few methods I try and usually end up just closing it when I'm happy with the amount it's made...only to have it keep going. lol
Thanks for sharing.
Premarket: no trades taken
Trading the Open: +74 ticks
Trend Account: -159
Live Account: +20 ticks
Net Loss: -65 ticks
I have my rules written out. They are still too generalized, but it's a start. The first trade was kind of in line, but not really, with my rules. The 2nd trade was OK. The 3rd trade followed a couple rules, and was OK if I allow for an exception, which means it sometimes should work but close it quickly if it doesn't....which is exactly what I did with that trade.
Trades 4 through 7 were taken in the trend account. I broke my rule for waiting after taking a losing trade and I had my maximum losses hit within 5 minutes. Other than that, they followed my set up rules except my entries were late.
Didn't want to stop trading so switched to my live account. I'm not sure if those trades followed my rules. They were taken when there wasn't a clear trend or clear reversal and beginning of a new trend. The entries themselves weren't great and were delayed. I had it in my mind price could keep going up and didn't want to lose out. I definitely have some more work to do to if I'm going to learn to trade by clearly defined rules.
I'm trying to delay trading right at the open, so the Trading the Open account is now going to be traded in the first 45 min or maybe even 60 minutes after the open.
Trading the Open: +74 ticks
Trend Account: -159
Live Account: +20 ticks
Net Loss: -65 ticks
I have my rules written out. They are still too generalized, but it's a start. The first trade was kind of in line, but not really, with my rules. The 2nd trade was OK. The 3rd trade followed a couple rules, and was OK if I allow for an exception, which means it sometimes should work but close it quickly if it doesn't....which is exactly what I did with that trade.
Trades 4 through 7 were taken in the trend account. I broke my rule for waiting after taking a losing trade and I had my maximum losses hit within 5 minutes. Other than that, they followed my set up rules except my entries were late.
Didn't want to stop trading so switched to my live account. I'm not sure if those trades followed my rules. They were taken when there wasn't a clear trend or clear reversal and beginning of a new trend. The entries themselves weren't great and were delayed. I had it in my mind price could keep going up and didn't want to lose out. I definitely have some more work to do to if I'm going to learn to trade by clearly defined rules.
I'm trying to delay trading right at the open, so the Trading the Open account is now going to be traded in the first 45 min or maybe even 60 minutes after the open.
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None of the demo accounts were profitable today. No live trades taken.
I'm thinking about taking a break from this journal. When I have a long losing streak like this one then the added pressure of posting trades doesn't help.
If I were to say what I think the problem is it would be that although I have a generalized concept of what I want my trading system to be, I don't have the details worked out. I've worked at this some, but haven't spent the time on it I think I need to. What's difficult is that what works sometimes doesn't work other times. What would help would be to find clues as to when a trade is likely to work and when it's not likely to work. Is it just more time studying this that I need? I don't know. Self control is definitely part of my problem. But without really understanding when and where I should take a trade becoming profitable is impossible with or without self control.
What's been disappointing about all this is that I watched this system work for someone else. My trades don't look anything like the system should look like. However, I can see how the system should work in hindsight on my charts. Sometimes I think I should just trade with a larger stop loss and see if that makes a difference. I did try that one day, a while ago. I used 5 min candles at the open, putting my stop losses below the last high or low. Well, it happened to be a day that price didn't trend for a while and every trade lost with a 5 min bar candle stop loss -- that came to a large loss of demo money, not something I'd want to do in real life. It could be I just haven't found the right combination of things, such as entry time frames and where to place the stop loss and where a reasonable target is. I don't know, and it all takes a lot of time to work through.
It could be I just don't have what it takes to be a trader.
So, off I go to study more charts. Not ready to call it quits yet.
I'm thinking about taking a break from this journal. When I have a long losing streak like this one then the added pressure of posting trades doesn't help.
If I were to say what I think the problem is it would be that although I have a generalized concept of what I want my trading system to be, I don't have the details worked out. I've worked at this some, but haven't spent the time on it I think I need to. What's difficult is that what works sometimes doesn't work other times. What would help would be to find clues as to when a trade is likely to work and when it's not likely to work. Is it just more time studying this that I need? I don't know. Self control is definitely part of my problem. But without really understanding when and where I should take a trade becoming profitable is impossible with or without self control.
What's been disappointing about all this is that I watched this system work for someone else. My trades don't look anything like the system should look like. However, I can see how the system should work in hindsight on my charts. Sometimes I think I should just trade with a larger stop loss and see if that makes a difference. I did try that one day, a while ago. I used 5 min candles at the open, putting my stop losses below the last high or low. Well, it happened to be a day that price didn't trend for a while and every trade lost with a 5 min bar candle stop loss -- that came to a large loss of demo money, not something I'd want to do in real life. It could be I just haven't found the right combination of things, such as entry time frames and where to place the stop loss and where a reasonable target is. I don't know, and it all takes a lot of time to work through.
It could be I just don't have what it takes to be a trader.
So, off I go to study more charts. Not ready to call it quits yet.
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