Maintaining Self Discipline

[SimpleMeLike]

Well, I would if I could, but I can't...because it was a trial version of Bloodhound last summer I was using and I don't have access to it anymore.

However, you've got me interested in backtesting again and I'm looking into the capabilities of Sierra Chart. Unfortunately, I have zero programming skills so their more complicated backtesting methods I'm not sure if I will even attempt to try. They have an "easy" method, but I don't know if it can do much and it will probably take me the next week to figure it out...and I'm not sure if there's a way to access data from as far back as you want on Sierra Chart.

Also, the volatility changes around on the NQ, so what would work with 50 ticks for a stop loss then may not now.....I have to readjust everyday that I trade.

Thanks for the interest!

You're welcome studentofthemarkets,

I am shy about posting on ET as I am not a consistent day trader, so I should not be advising anyone, but you working hard like me. So take what I say as common sense.

And common sense is something I can share from my own experience trading. I have changed my trading approach and ONLY follow credible proven profitable traders who I have proof of making money. I no longer waste time reading or listening to anyone who I believe is not profitable.

What I believe in:

1. A back test, a forward test. A proven edge.
2. Broker statements.

Jim Simon (proven profitable trader) says Past performance is the best predictor of success

IMO, the reason you are struggling is because you do not have a proven verified edge over a minimum 1 year back testing for XXX to X,XXX trades. You only have 2 months of proven edge for 200 trades.

If you have a method, you need to prove edge in this method by back testing it manually or programming it. Period. Day to day trading hoping and wishing and shoulda coulda woulda is mental draining and stupid.

That is all I can say.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

You're welcome studentofthemarkets,

I am shy about posting on ET as I am not a consistent day trader, so I should not be advising anyone, but you working hard like me. So take what I say as common sense.

And common sense is something I can share from my own experience trading. I have changed my trading approach and ONLY follow credible proven profitable traders who I have proof of making money. I no longer waste time reading or listening to anyone who I believe is not profitable.

What I believe in:

1. A back test, a forward test. A proven edge.
2. Broker statements.

Jim Simon (proven profitable trader) says Past performance is the best predictor of success

IMO, the reason you are struggling is because you do not have a proven verified edge over a minimum 1 year back testing for XXX to X,XXX trades. You only have 2 months of proven edge for 200 trades.

If you have a method, you need to prove edge in this method by back testing it manually or programming it. Period. Day to day trading hoping and wishing and shoulda coulda woulda is mental draining and stupid.

That is all I can say.

"IMO, the reason you are struggling is because you do not have a proven verified edge over a minimum 1 year back testing for XXX to X,XXX trades. You only have 2 months of proven edge for 200 trades."

My method has been proven, just not by me, yet.

I really don't need to back test it to know it works.

I have hang-ups with some of the emotional aspects of trading it on the NQ. I'm wondering if I should jump ship and trade it on the ES because with the Nasdaq I often stay out of the move I want to be in in because it takes off so quickly and I have hesitated to get in.

My trials on Bloodhound last summer actually did better on the ES than the NQ or YM. I haven't been trading it because of the slow way it moves at times and also I've never figured out how to successfully use limit orders. I like market orders and that's all I need on the Nasdaq. But I'm thinking if I can get past that, the ES has a certain rhythm about it that might make it easier to trade.

I really think it's not my method, but it's me that's keeping me from success.

Anyhow, appreciate your input. Thanks. You've encouraged me to take another stab at back testing.

I think running back tests can help with identifying how the different market conditions affect my trading system. I noticed last summer that the only time the plan didn't work was in non-trending conditions. Other things, like that, might become more apparent with automated back testing. Then there's always paper trade back testing....finding the trades using your rules on historical charts. I think that helps with training your brain for pattern recognition.

But there are certain key elements to my plan that I'm not sure are possible to automate.

Best of luck to you in your trading!

 

[SimpleMeLike]

"IMO, the reason you are struggling is because you do not have a proven verified edge over a minimum 1 year back testing for XXX to X,XXX trades. You only have 2 months of proven edge for 200 trades."

My method has been proven, just not by me, yet.

I really don't need to back test it to know it works.

I have hang-ups with some of the emotional aspects of trading it on the NQ. I'm wondering if I should jump ship and trade it on the ES because with the Nasdaq I often stay out of the move I want to be in in because it takes off so quickly and I have hesitated to get in.

My trials on Bloodhound last summer actually did better on the ES than the NQ or YM. I haven't been trading it because of the slow way it moves at times and also I've never figured out how to successfully use limit orders. I like market orders and that's all I need on the Nasdaq. But I'm thinking if I can get past that, the ES has a certain rhythm about it that might make it easier to trade.

I really think it's not my method, but it's me that's keeping me from success.

Anyhow, appreciate your input. Thanks. You've encouraged me to take another stab at back testing.

I think running back tests can help with identifying how the different market conditions affect my trading system. I noticed last summer that the only time the plan didn't work was in non-trending conditions. Other things, like that, might become more apparent with automated back testing. Then there's always paper trade back testing....finding the trades using your rules on historical charts. I think that helps with training your brain for pattern recognition.

But there are certain key elements to my plan that I'm not sure are possible to automate.

Best of luck to you in your trading!

You're welcome studentofthemarkets

I hope I helped

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Some traders only talk about their wins and rarely their losses.

Today, I am one of those traders!!!!!

So, I switched over to the ES yesterday. And had beginner's luck. Well, I'm not exactly new to the ES, just never had much success with it. But I'm off to a good start and wanted to post my trade list for yesterday and today. These are the ONLY trades I've taken this week. Except I did replay last night for a bit, but that shouldn't count.

BTW, they weren't very good entries. That's why I'm not showing my charts. They went against me some because I didn't time them very well. But my focus was trading with the overall trend direction and giving them a wide enough stop loss to work, and that paid off. The 2nd contracts didn't work so well, most were at BE+. I need to do better at taking trades with more potential for trailing so that those will be profitable too.

Here's the trade list:

 

[studentofthemarkets]

I think I'm going to like trading the ES. I still feel a little lost when I pull up the charts because the way it moves is different than the NQ and I've hardly studied anything else but the NQ for a long time. I think if I just keep plugging away at this it'll pay off.

This week I watched a video called "How to practice effectively....for just about anything" and that influenced how I decided to approach learning to trade the ES. I've been breaking up my study time between the different time frames trying to see the general tendencies of what some would call rotations: how far price is likely to go and how far it is likely to retrace and how far it can retrace while it's still going somewhere.....and what it looks like when it's not going anywhere.

I'm not including Wednesday in my trading stats because I purposefully only worked on scalping entry drills and didn't try to take a real trade. I stayed on a small timeframe and didn't pull up larger timeframes to influence the entries. Just wanted to get a feel for how tight I could get a stop loss and get a first target.

Also, today, I didn't take any demo trades because I wanted to keep all my demo ticks and not take any risks while I'm still kind of not sure what to expect with the ES. Instead, I took "line trades" where I mark lines on my chart and trail using lines. Most of those would have worked nicely, definitely for scalping, and some for holding onto, although I haven't figured out a good stop loss size for holding onto longer trades. I had a some line trades that went 90 to 125 ticks IF I had used a larger stop loss size of 20 ticks. The price action for the 2nd and 3rd hour after the open moved nicely and worrying about a stop loss for the 2nd contract during that time wouldn't have needed to be a factor.

I decided to show a chart of 2 of my paper trades because it kind of documents where I'm at in seeing things on the ES. The 1st trade (long) shown definitely had the most potential, but to hold onto it for a couple of hours to get the full potential would mean sitting through retracements. Now that it's hindsight, the 2nd trade, the short, I probably shouldn't have taken because price had made a higher high. There's something about price dropping rapidly that makes me thinking I should stay out of a long move, but that would have been a very nice place to go long, once the drop was over ( the 9:30 CT time). So, if I could just see these things in real time and trade them, I think I'll do well as a trader.

I took 8 paper trades today. Here are 2 of them:



Trade list for this week:

 

[studentofthemarkets]

I'm going to use a different demo account this next week to trade the ES in. That way it won't mess up my regular statistics from last week. It wouldn't be such a big deal, except I like having a week with good trades and really don't want to give that up.

Anyhow, so, my plan for this next week is to ONLY trade off of 15 minute charts. I spent some time looking over them today and feel like it's the best way to get my focus on the real movements that the ES makes, rather than getting lost in the tiny time frames. So, my stop losses will probably be really large, I don't know yet, and if I get stopped out a lot, then that's not something I want to do in my regular demo account.

For next week, the plan is to only trade in this 2nd demo account, not taking any other trades, except maybe live trades, but probably not. Then I'll evaluate how I did at the end of the week and likely go back to the smaller timeframes, but hopefully with a better understanding of the way the 15 minute chart behaves.

I don't plan to keep switching things around and changing my approach once I have a better feel for the ES. Maybe what I should try sometime soon is to see how long I can go without changing anything.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

This week I really focused on trying to use the 1 hr chart and higher time frames to trade the 15 minute chart. I didn't let myself look at anything lower than a 15 minute chart to enter trades although after trading I have sometimes looked at lower timeframes to figure out how they had behaved around my trades.

I found it difficult to trade within the 15 minute candles. Each 15 minute candle seems to make highs and lows that look like they should be easy to determine where the highs and lows will take place, but I didn't get to the place where I was timing those very well.

I usually used a stop loss of 10 ticks. My largest loss this week was 24 ticks. My stop loss size ended up being too small for the way I was entering by waiting for movement before getting in. The ES retraces a lot and I need to use that for entering. Basically, I tended to buy at higher highs and get stopped out in the retracements, all within a 15 minute candle. I knew that was happening, but I found it very hard to place trades correctly when only having the 15 minute candles up.

I used volume profile also and that helped some by adding structure to the chart.

I tried to stick with a 20 tick target, but sometimes took less. My largest win was 95 ticks.

I didn't finish positive for the week. However, I'm pretty sure I am understanding the way the ES moves intraday better than I did at the beginning of this week.

What I'm thinking will happen, and really, really hoping for, is that going back to smaller timeframes next week will make it easier to find where the lows and highs of a 15 minute candle are likely to form. I plan to use the overall intraday moves as my underlying bias. Getting in at the bottom of a 15 minute candle that is biased to go up would mean I should be easily able to use a 10 tick stop loss....maybe smaller, and have about a 1:2 risk to reward, possibly more if it's trending.

The things I plan to work on this next week are:

1. Learning to expect a retracement.

2. Work on whether trailing or setting a specific target works best.

3. Figure out if I should use 1 contract or 2 contracts. It opens me up to too much risk if I use 2 contracts while usually entering trades late. Many of my trades that do get the first target have had the second contract gets taken out at BE simply because the ES retraces a lot -even when it's still trending.

After I work on these areas this coming week, I think I will have a better idea of what is working and what isn't and try to get some consistency with my trades and then try to not change anything for long enough to get to know whether or not something is working before I need to make some adjustments.

Video I watched this week:

My long term plan is build a habit of only taking trades that meet my entry criteria. This week I plan to try to narrow down exactly what those trades look like and their exits.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

I've had a hard time getting used to the way the 1 minute chart moves. I had a rough start to the week on Monday and Tuesday. Yesterday I made the decision to stick with using 10 ticks for a stop loss and target for a while to get my mind trained to timing the 1 minute candle movements.

I randomly picked 10 ticks to use for trying the 1:1 risk to reward. Could be that 8 ticks or 6 ticks or some other number might give more consistent results.

I don't plan to always stay with using 10 tick targets. I want to eventually get the larger moves the ES makes, but for now I need to focus on getting this down.

I took only 4 trades today during the regular trading hours and all 4 trades won! Much better than yesterday's trading using 10 ticks stop loss/target.

I think it was just random luck that the trades weren't stopped out, but it helped that I got the overall direction somewhat right.

I'd show the trades on a chart except each trade had something that I should have done better on.

Demo Trade list for today:

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Wasn't sure about writing a wrap-up for this last week, since there didn't seem to be much to say. But I thought of something, so I'm writing this. Also, moving forward, I might skip a week in my journal if I don't do well, rather than mentioning it. That takes some pressure off when trading, to try to not make mistakes. But then, maybe that pressure is good. So, I have no idea, really, how I'll use this journal moving forward.

The jury is still out on whether or not I'm going to make this work. I watched 5 min charts on fast speed replay yesterday and came away thinking there was no way the ES is tradable, there are no patterns. There are rarely 2 or more of the same color in a row, they tend to alternate color and retrace too much! Also, Thursday was the last day I traded, and I ended up with 3 winners and 2 losers and the winners were nearly losers. So, those two things left me feeling a little discouraged.

But then.....I looked at my stats for the week and although Monday and Tuesday were bad because I didn't limit losses, my last 3 trades on Tuesday won. On Wednesday I had 4 winners only and when you add the 3 winners and 2 losers from Thursday....well, out of my last 12 trades, I've only lost 2!!!????!!! What? I never got beginner's luck this easily on the NQ.

Yesterday, after watching the 5 minute charts, as I said earlier, I really felt I should give up. But then I looked at the 1 min and some smaller timeframes and felt like they should be easier to read than the 5 min. So, IF I can improve on timing those entries....well, I really have no idea what the future holds. I don't want to imagine success just to have my hopes dashed (again). But it does seem like maybe this is going to work.

Decided on Wednesday to go back to a firm commitment to stopping trading for the day after 3 losing trades. Along with that, I really need to make a good effort to take at least 3 trades in a day. There is no point in allowing 3 losses in a day if I'm going to stop after one or 2 good trades in a day. That just makes losing days harder to make up. The last few days of looking at charts have confirmed to me that this is a good plan to stick with.

I have also found a partial solution to my problem of overtrading.

It didn't come from telling myself out loud that I was overtrading. Surprisingly, that did nothing to stop it (this happened twice back when I was trading the NQ). When I wasn't listening to myself during the act, I figured there was something going on I really needed to get to the bottom of. I came to realize that most of the time I'm overtrading it's because I see price action that I'm not understanding and I'm trading wrong, and I want to learn it. I tell myself, "if I can just learn how it's moving and how to take the trades correctly, then this (usually ranging behavior) isn't going to mess me up in the future."

That has led to understanding that I need to separate in my mind that when trading I'm not suppose to be learning, but executing what I've already learned, with accuracy. If I tell myself while trading, that this is not the time to figure this crazy market out, but I will figure it out later, then suddenly, I feel free to work on taking trades accurately. The thing to remember is that I have to be diligent to follow through and actually spend time on the difficult area, because if I feel like I will procrastinate on this and never get around to studying it later, than in the moment of trading, I will have a stronger temptation to work on it right then by overtrading.

That only covers demo trading overtrading. Revenge trading with live money is likely going to be different, and I'll have to deal with that someday. But at least I will be building good habits of careful trading in demo first.

What's important about coming to this understanding is that moving forward, I'm going to try really hard to make an emphasis on taking only the best trades. I don't think I'll try for only perfect trades at this point, because those seem to happen rarely. But making that effort to take really good set ups and not settle for anything less is going to be the key to success...at least that's my current understanding.

 

[easymon1]

That has led to understanding that I need to separate in my mind that when trading I'm not suppose to be learning, but executing what I've already learned, with accuracy.

What triggers a buy or a sell to open?
What triggers an exit?