Well, seeing things in hindsight are better than not seeing anything at all.
Maintaining Self Discipline
- Thread starter studentofthemarkets
- Start date
could not agree more.
what i meant to say was, are you positive that over the course of a month's worth of trades, the delays spoken of, do these 'events' actually cost you anything.
i have a trade onscreen right in front of me on this morning's mnq 2m chart that triggered to the downside, but retraced 148 ticks first in order to retest a trendline overhead, after which she stalled around for six more minutes, and only then did she start hauling ass for the deep blue sea.
point being, without evidence that each and every of your triggers are instant acting, you may consider a careful study of 20 to 50 or so trades to see if you actually Do need to knee jerk into each and every signal trigger. Some of them have likely recently broken through a Support or Resistance line and a respectable percentage of those will nibble around the edges of a run, but before taking off in earnest, often will retest the recently broached level.
if you can relax and see what happens, you can avoid chasing a trade and still get on the bus going your way on a pullback.
it's all good.
If you would like to measure and calibrate your focus, this can be done in real time and if you have chart replay in the package you use, it can also be done over the weekend.
It's a game called: Suppose your paycheck was based on the percent of entry triggers correctly taken?
For your case, you may want to substitute the phrase "of entry triggers ImMeDiaTely Taken"
then you can have a take on how many you Can take immediately, if you Want to.
And the bonus is that you can start to take a good look at how many of those triggers that Worked, Demanded an Immediate Entry. Many don't. and from there one could further refine the reflexes and apply the principles to whatever method you actually Do Use for your trade entries and exits.
The method used in the game above is not a tested system, just so straightforward yet demanding of attention that it will give you an honest look at your focus in numerical measure that can be repeated and improved whenever.
If you do decide to get dead serious about takin money from market, then please be considerate and leave a little for the rest of u$.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ercent-entry-triggers-correctly-taken.343345/
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"point being, without evidence that each and every of your triggers are instant acting, you may consider a careful study of 20 to 50 or so trades to see if you actually Do need to knee jerk into each and every signal trigger. Some of them have likely recently broken through a Support or Resistance line and a respectable percentage of those will nibble around the edges of a run, but before taking off in earnest, often will retest the recently broached level.
if you can relax and see what happens, you can avoid chasing a trade and still get on the bus going your way on a pullback."
Good suggestions! I do have a great replay platform that I use. Hadn't thought of trying to use it as you suggested, but I can see how that would be valuable. I think the key, for me, might be focusing on one trade entry type at a time, maybe something like hourly chart double tops or bottoms. I guess I should make a list and work on each entry type. Sierra Chart allows for a fast speed so it shouldn't be too hard to go through a month's time and see how the totals come out. Nice idea to start a thread on this topic...I'll be checking to see if anyone else tries it and posts their results.
Thanks!
Made 6 ticks today, but the trades weren't taken well and I don't like the way I'm trading. There are a few places on the chart during the time I was trading that could have made good trades. I watched them happen. I don't really get why I'm not reading the chart very well. I see possible trades when it's too late to enter. It might just be a matter of needing to see it happen over and over again to learn to read the candles and indicators better.
Yesterday I tried the game "Suppose your paycheck was based on the percent of entry triggers correctly taken" on the one hour chart, speeded up, looking for double tops and bottoms. I did horribly on that too, but I also learned that what looks like it could be a bottom or top for a reversal trade is often a breakout trade. The reversal trades that worked seemed to make a decent amount of money...since it was the hourly chart and I let the trades play out for a few hour's worth of movement. However, finding where to enter was hard. I had a lot of stop outs, both for getting the direction wrong (breakout or reversal) and entering a little late and getting stopped out on a retest. I tried to evaluate how I did as far as entering too soon, but this trial run wasn't good for that...I don't really have a plan for entering on hourly candles moving at fast speed on replay yet, so it's hard to critique a plan that isn't really a plan yet. I'll have to do another replay using a trade entry I'm familiar with to evaluate the timing of entries.
Yesterday I tried the game "Suppose your paycheck was based on the percent of entry triggers correctly taken" on the one hour chart, speeded up, looking for double tops and bottoms. I did horribly on that too, but I also learned that what looks like it could be a bottom or top for a reversal trade is often a breakout trade. The reversal trades that worked seemed to make a decent amount of money...since it was the hourly chart and I let the trades play out for a few hour's worth of movement. However, finding where to enter was hard. I had a lot of stop outs, both for getting the direction wrong (breakout or reversal) and entering a little late and getting stopped out on a retest. I tried to evaluate how I did as far as entering too soon, but this trial run wasn't good for that...I don't really have a plan for entering on hourly candles moving at fast speed on replay yet, so it's hard to critique a plan that isn't really a plan yet. I'll have to do another replay using a trade entry I'm familiar with to evaluate the timing of entries.
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Made 15 ticks today.
Every trade felt like I was guessing. I think I might always struggle with capturing a few ticks vs holding for a bigger move. I'd really like to capture larger moves and maybe as I get to know the Euro better I'll do better at getting them but staying in profit is more important, I think. Although I'm not very sure about this. If I'm usually risking around 10 ticks to make around 10 ticks and my win rate is barely positive, it might be a lot safer to learn to get a 20+ tick trade with around 10 ticks for a stop loss. I guess the only thing to do is work at only placing trades that I think have the potential to trend...so if I see a place where I could make about 5 ticks....skip it. That's what I've been doing, but I had to think think it through a little more. My first profitable trade today could have been held longer, but I would have had to hold it through a retracement and risk getting out at BE or going negative and it just seemed best to capture 9 ticks. The 2nd profitable trade is trickier to try to figure out how to have traded. I used a 13 tick stop loss. If I had just left the trade on, it would have made 34 ticks but only after a drawdown of 4 ticks and I might have closed the trade for a loss. Risking 12 ticks to make 6 ticks isn't how I want to trade.
I think there are 3 things to consider for improving on this dilemma:
1. Get in at the bottoms of retracements....like right at where the 4 ticks came down to, or any of the previous higher lows before it or after it.
2. Use 2 contracts so I can capture the first 6 ticks or so and then a loss won't be as bad. Maybe someday I'll do this, but if I get to the point of using real money, I'll be using one contract for a while, so I'll stick with one contract in demo too.
3. Get a lot better at my analyses so I'm not guessing at what is going on.
Every trade felt like I was guessing. I think I might always struggle with capturing a few ticks vs holding for a bigger move. I'd really like to capture larger moves and maybe as I get to know the Euro better I'll do better at getting them but staying in profit is more important, I think. Although I'm not very sure about this. If I'm usually risking around 10 ticks to make around 10 ticks and my win rate is barely positive, it might be a lot safer to learn to get a 20+ tick trade with around 10 ticks for a stop loss. I guess the only thing to do is work at only placing trades that I think have the potential to trend...so if I see a place where I could make about 5 ticks....skip it. That's what I've been doing, but I had to think think it through a little more. My first profitable trade today could have been held longer, but I would have had to hold it through a retracement and risk getting out at BE or going negative and it just seemed best to capture 9 ticks. The 2nd profitable trade is trickier to try to figure out how to have traded. I used a 13 tick stop loss. If I had just left the trade on, it would have made 34 ticks but only after a drawdown of 4 ticks and I might have closed the trade for a loss. Risking 12 ticks to make 6 ticks isn't how I want to trade.
I think there are 3 things to consider for improving on this dilemma:
1. Get in at the bottoms of retracements....like right at where the 4 ticks came down to, or any of the previous higher lows before it or after it.
2. Use 2 contracts so I can capture the first 6 ticks or so and then a loss won't be as bad. Maybe someday I'll do this, but if I get to the point of using real money, I'll be using one contract for a while, so I'll stick with one contract in demo too.
3. Get a lot better at my analyses so I'm not guessing at what is going on.
Made 14 ticks.
However, the timing of entries was really bad. The first trade went against everything I use to enter a trade. I "felt" like price should go down after having moved up so far. After that I tried hard to do better at following my indicators, but the 2nd trade was too tempting and I entered another countertrend trade. It wasn't completely without reasoning. At the highs my indicators usually all read as "buy" and that's where the best entry for a short would be as far as getting the most out of the trade. The problem with that is that in a trend there are always new highs and the indicators always say "buy" and it's really hard to know when the high becomes the last high. Anyhow, I held onto that trade even after it went into a nice profit because I was hoping for a better reversal but closed it for BE+1. The 2nd trade I went short again still hoping a reversal was coming, but this one was agonizing to sit through because I got in way too early and easily could have had it end as a losing trade. While watching it I realized that I will never be able to have a live trade go through chop like that unless it is risk free. I need to figure out a way to still be in profit for the day if I'm stopped out so that I can hold onto a choppy move with a normal stop placement. Otherwise it's too risky. Of course, calling the trade right and getting in just when it makes it's move would be best.
However, the timing of entries was really bad. The first trade went against everything I use to enter a trade. I "felt" like price should go down after having moved up so far. After that I tried hard to do better at following my indicators, but the 2nd trade was too tempting and I entered another countertrend trade. It wasn't completely without reasoning. At the highs my indicators usually all read as "buy" and that's where the best entry for a short would be as far as getting the most out of the trade. The problem with that is that in a trend there are always new highs and the indicators always say "buy" and it's really hard to know when the high becomes the last high. Anyhow, I held onto that trade even after it went into a nice profit because I was hoping for a better reversal but closed it for BE+1. The 2nd trade I went short again still hoping a reversal was coming, but this one was agonizing to sit through because I got in way too early and easily could have had it end as a losing trade. While watching it I realized that I will never be able to have a live trade go through chop like that unless it is risk free. I need to figure out a way to still be in profit for the day if I'm stopped out so that I can hold onto a choppy move with a normal stop placement. Otherwise it's too risky. Of course, calling the trade right and getting in just when it makes it's move would be best.
Lost 19 ticks. 3 losing trades. 3 break evens....the break evens all could have made money....but I didn't read the charts well enough to capture any money.
If there is anything good that came from today it might be that each losing trade had the correct stop loss placement and they were only 7 ticks each including fees/commisions. What this means is that if I can keep the stop losses small then losing days will be easier to make up. In the back of my mind I've been worried that 3 losing trades in a day without winning trades could really hurt gains made in other days. If the stop losses were larger, say around 13 ticks each, that would be 39 ticks and much more difficult to makeup. I think in the long run it would be best to make it a habit to skip good trades that have too large of a stop loss placement and only take good trades that can have a smaller stop loss placement.
If there is anything good that came from today it might be that each losing trade had the correct stop loss placement and they were only 7 ticks each including fees/commisions. What this means is that if I can keep the stop losses small then losing days will be easier to make up. In the back of my mind I've been worried that 3 losing trades in a day without winning trades could really hurt gains made in other days. If the stop losses were larger, say around 13 ticks each, that would be 39 ticks and much more difficult to makeup. I think in the long run it would be best to make it a habit to skip good trades that have too large of a stop loss placement and only take good trades that can have a smaller stop loss placement.
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This video sums up how I feel about trading...just replace her words with:
You must not trade against the moving averages, unless, of course, you must...
You must trade using the structure making a HH and HL, or LL and HL, except, of course, when it doesn't...
You must not taking a losing trade, except, of course, you must be prepared to take a losing trade to get a winning trade....
You must not trade against the moving averages, unless, of course, you must...
You must trade using the structure making a HH and HL, or LL and HL, except, of course, when it doesn't...
You must not taking a losing trade, except, of course, you must be prepared to take a losing trade to get a winning trade....
Not sure anyone else will find value in this post. I just feel like writing about things I want to remember from today and if I write it in this journal, I'm more likely to reread it and hopefully learn from it.
I'm really trying hard to resist the feeling that I need to keep trading all day long and not limit my losses, but I think I learned a lesson from losing control on the Nasdaq a few weeks ago when allowing for unlimited losses and losing about $4,000 in less than an hour. I know learning to have self control for a predetermined criteria for quitting for the day is crucial to being a trader. But I also know I need a lot more screen time or else I'm not going to progress very fast. For today, I think what I'll do is put sim replay on and and mark up things I see, but not take sim trades either, just watch price move...probably on high speed, and various time frames and see if I can get a better sense of how to trade the 6E. If that doesn't seem to help, I should switch to still charts and mark them up.
I like the way the 6E has nice structure on the charts...I don't like the chop, but it seems like there are a lot of good trading opportunities that I should be recognizing but I'm not and I don't really know why. For example, there was a double top made at 1:20 and 5:40 am CT. The next attempt at 7:05 am was lower and then another failed attempt at 8:30 am. I should have understood all this to recognize a good short opportunity after the 8:30 am rejection. Taking the short in frustration doesn't count. Also, the chop where the longs got stopped out 3 times gave a warning that buyers weren't very strong. Of course, if price had popped up above the double highs, I still think it might have had the potential to run a little, and that's what I based my trades around today...but other than the run up from overnight, there wasn't a whole lot to base that scenario on and I should have been more prepared for a reversal. Only by trading a day like this over and over again will I learn to recognize this happening. So, hopefully, if I replay it in sim over and over, it'll do the job faster than just sticking with real time trading.
I'm really trying hard to resist the feeling that I need to keep trading all day long and not limit my losses, but I think I learned a lesson from losing control on the Nasdaq a few weeks ago when allowing for unlimited losses and losing about $4,000 in less than an hour. I know learning to have self control for a predetermined criteria for quitting for the day is crucial to being a trader. But I also know I need a lot more screen time or else I'm not going to progress very fast. For today, I think what I'll do is put sim replay on and and mark up things I see, but not take sim trades either, just watch price move...probably on high speed, and various time frames and see if I can get a better sense of how to trade the 6E. If that doesn't seem to help, I should switch to still charts and mark them up.
I like the way the 6E has nice structure on the charts...I don't like the chop, but it seems like there are a lot of good trading opportunities that I should be recognizing but I'm not and I don't really know why. For example, there was a double top made at 1:20 and 5:40 am CT. The next attempt at 7:05 am was lower and then another failed attempt at 8:30 am. I should have understood all this to recognize a good short opportunity after the 8:30 am rejection. Taking the short in frustration doesn't count. Also, the chop where the longs got stopped out 3 times gave a warning that buyers weren't very strong. Of course, if price had popped up above the double highs, I still think it might have had the potential to run a little, and that's what I based my trades around today...but other than the run up from overnight, there wasn't a whole lot to base that scenario on and I should have been more prepared for a reversal. Only by trading a day like this over and over again will I learn to recognize this happening. So, hopefully, if I replay it in sim over and over, it'll do the job faster than just sticking with real time trading.