lol so per point #5, you're open to group input about your trade decisions but not this one. Sounds good. all the best.
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Magic's Little Project
- Thread starter Magic
- Start date
Even with an abject failure hopefully my thread will provide a minute break from the monotony of the scores of people trying to use PA on the NQ in order to quit their jobs.
Well said there, the generic I use PA is annoying ( tea leave reading works better LOL ) and NQ is the most hateful market which can be traded, unless you like no range or trend and totally random I guess.
Update for Today:
Attempted to fade small consolidation ranges after up-spikes. First @ 2091.50 at 12:10 and second @ 2093.25 at 12:55. Both trades had two point stops that were hit during continuation of the trend.
After the day's rally seemed to run it's course, I shorted a third time @ 2096.25 at 1:50. Since the pace of the downward drift was so gradual, I decided not to hold into ETH. Exited at 3:50 with two points profit.
Day 1 Results: -$100
Plan going forward:
Depending on the action tomorrow I may attempt a couple more shorts as price leaves consolidation points to the down-side. However, if instead of a healthy counter-trend movement, volume and volatility appear to begin drying up with extended sideways movement that occurs occasionally at new highs, I may conclude the project pre-maturely and perhaps pick it back up when things begin moving again.
Attempted to fade small consolidation ranges after up-spikes. First @ 2091.50 at 12:10 and second @ 2093.25 at 12:55. Both trades had two point stops that were hit during continuation of the trend.
After the day's rally seemed to run it's course, I shorted a third time @ 2096.25 at 1:50. Since the pace of the downward drift was so gradual, I decided not to hold into ETH. Exited at 3:50 with two points profit.
Day 1 Results: -$100
Plan going forward:
Depending on the action tomorrow I may attempt a couple more shorts as price leaves consolidation points to the down-side. However, if instead of a healthy counter-trend movement, volume and volatility appear to begin drying up with extended sideways movement that occurs occasionally at new highs, I may conclude the project pre-maturely and perhaps pick it back up when things begin moving again.
Update for Today:
Attempted to fade small consolidation ranges after up-spikes. First @ 2091.50 at 12:10 and second @ 2093.25 at 12:55. Both trades had two point stops that were hit during continuation of the trend.
After the day's rally seemed to run it's course, I shorted a third time @ 2096.25 at 1:50. Since the pace of the downward drift was so gradual, I decided not to hold into ETH. Exited at 3:50 with two points profit.
Day 1 Results: -$100
Plan going forward:
Depending on the action tomorrow I may attempt a couple more shorts as price leaves consolidation points to the down-side. However, if instead of a healthy counter-trend movement, volume and volatility appear to begin drying up with extended sideways movement that occurs occasionally at new highs, I may conclude the project pre-maturely and perhaps pick it back up when things begin moving again.
Today was super slow all around, I'm +$19, not worth my time, People still on holiday from Yesterday and 1/2 term in the UK.
Recap:
Got an entry in a little after the opening rush. I'm more comfortable playing things cautious since we're still pretty clearly in an intermediate term up-trend. So, after I failed to get a particular confirmation signals following my short, I kept it on a pretty short leash and ended up closing it close to break-even as the market failed to continue down-ward.
Was away for most of the afternoon, and although another short around 2096 at 3:30 was looking reasonable, I decided not to trade so close to the end of the day. Unless a strong sentiment is present I would prefer not to hold into ETH since I'm much less familiar with the low-liquidity environment there.
Day 2 Results: +$37.50
Total So Far: -$62.50
Plan Going Forward:
Well, looks like the first day in a while that's been completely bounded by the previous day's RTH range. We'll see where things go after the market takes it's breather. 2100 seems to be holding so far, and volatility is lowering slightly as is common at points of hesitancy.
Will keep an eye out on the action and continue to take very conservative shorts for the time being. If we see another 15pt+ up-trending day through 2100 I will close the project out early as the tentative hypothesis of a decent counter-trend movement will have been invalidated.
Got an entry in a little after the opening rush. I'm more comfortable playing things cautious since we're still pretty clearly in an intermediate term up-trend. So, after I failed to get a particular confirmation signals following my short, I kept it on a pretty short leash and ended up closing it close to break-even as the market failed to continue down-ward.
Was away for most of the afternoon, and although another short around 2096 at 3:30 was looking reasonable, I decided not to trade so close to the end of the day. Unless a strong sentiment is present I would prefer not to hold into ETH since I'm much less familiar with the low-liquidity environment there.
Day 2 Results: +$37.50
Total So Far: -$62.50
Plan Going Forward:
Well, looks like the first day in a while that's been completely bounded by the previous day's RTH range. We'll see where things go after the market takes it's breather. 2100 seems to be holding so far, and volatility is lowering slightly as is common at points of hesitancy.
Will keep an eye out on the action and continue to take very conservative shorts for the time being. If we see another 15pt+ up-trending day through 2100 I will close the project out early as the tentative hypothesis of a decent counter-trend movement will have been invalidated.
Recap:
Another tough morning trying to fade such a strong-uptrend. I tried three or four times to catch a down-ward turn with a small stop, but wasn't having much success. The shorts really didn't take off at all, so I didn't get the chance to move up stops and reduce losses.
Finally got a short in at 2097.75 around 11:50 and the position is still open. This is the entry I was looking for, in order to be positioned to take advantage of decent down-side without while being exposed to minimal risk.
So, the first stage of the project is complete. I feel glad to have made it this far; I was hoping to avoid the project ending via max loss before even completing the entry phase successfully. My current stop is in at 2099.75, and if it is hit the project will be concluded. There will be no more entries after this one either regardless of how the position is exited.
Day 3 Results: -$237.50 [inc. Unrealized Profit from open position]
Total So Far: -$300 [w/ Unrealized]
Plan Going Forward:
While I am happy to have made it this far, price is still relatively close to the point of entry, so I will continue to remain skeptical of a profitable outcome unless we get some additional down-ward movement. The next priority is to assess what happens tomorrow and watch for a break through 2090. If this does not happen, I will consider ending the trade before it is stopped out if what we're expecting next doesn't materialize.
Another tough morning trying to fade such a strong-uptrend. I tried three or four times to catch a down-ward turn with a small stop, but wasn't having much success. The shorts really didn't take off at all, so I didn't get the chance to move up stops and reduce losses.
Finally got a short in at 2097.75 around 11:50 and the position is still open. This is the entry I was looking for, in order to be positioned to take advantage of decent down-side without while being exposed to minimal risk.
So, the first stage of the project is complete. I feel glad to have made it this far; I was hoping to avoid the project ending via max loss before even completing the entry phase successfully. My current stop is in at 2099.75, and if it is hit the project will be concluded. There will be no more entries after this one either regardless of how the position is exited.
Day 3 Results: -$237.50 [inc. Unrealized Profit from open position]
Total So Far: -$300 [w/ Unrealized]
Plan Going Forward:
While I am happy to have made it this far, price is still relatively close to the point of entry, so I will continue to remain skeptical of a profitable outcome unless we get some additional down-ward movement. The next priority is to assess what happens tomorrow and watch for a break through 2090. If this does not happen, I will consider ending the trade before it is stopped out if what we're expecting next doesn't materialize.
Flip those short, you get a move down, it stops, go long with the trend, tight SL, odds are much higher of continuation than reversal
That's a good idea; I was just thinking to myself that I could study the points where I felt my shorts were invalidated and consider long opportunities there. It would definitely have been a profitable strategy these past few days; the more difficult part for me is finding how to recognize environments like this that it would work in, or designing risk parameters that would allow a continuation strategy to work in almost all environments.
Morning Update:
The trade is still open, and we have seen some favorable excursion. I am cautiously optimistic at this point. I have decided to move my stop to the low of yesterday at 2092, locking in a max loss of -$117.50 for the project if it is hit. I normally would've taken an exit signal at 2083.75 just, but since this is a public project and I am trying to grow in understanding of larger trends, I decided to leave the trade open.
Day 4 Current Results: +$462.50 [w/ Unrealized]
Total So Far: +$400 [w/ Unrealized]
Plan Going Forward:
What I expect to see in order to continue holding is an upward movement or sideways drift throughout the afternoon that does not breach the previous day's low. Then we can evaluate whether to exit at a point of probable exhaustion on the next wave down, or repeat the process if it continues to show a decent amount of strength. I will give another update at the end of today.
Conclusion:
Overall this was a pretty good exercise. I was able to get a decent entry, which was unfortunately stopped out, but it has given me a number of things to focus on. Primarily, I am going to start looking into playing both sides even when I am looking for a particular trade in the long-term. If there is enough volatility to keep going through my entries; it should easily be possible to profit from it.
Also, when looking to make a larger trade possibly spanning several days, I want to come into a trend later. Even though this strong rally has been going on for two weeks, it continues to provide fairly strong movement in the trend direction. I want to focus more on where to find an entry in a pre-existing trend than to spot a change in trend.
On the positive, I think my entry and stop strategy and my ability to execute them held up pretty well. Even with only shorting in such a strong up-trend, I was able to limit losses and get many shots at establishing an entry at a decent turning point. If I can better classify environments to aim for particular a particular direction of trade, I think the system would definitely get some pretty successful results.
Net Result: -$162.50
Overall this was a pretty good exercise. I was able to get a decent entry, which was unfortunately stopped out, but it has given me a number of things to focus on. Primarily, I am going to start looking into playing both sides even when I am looking for a particular trade in the long-term. If there is enough volatility to keep going through my entries; it should easily be possible to profit from it.
Also, when looking to make a larger trade possibly spanning several days, I want to come into a trend later. Even though this strong rally has been going on for two weeks, it continues to provide fairly strong movement in the trend direction. I want to focus more on where to find an entry in a pre-existing trend than to spot a change in trend.
On the positive, I think my entry and stop strategy and my ability to execute them held up pretty well. Even with only shorting in such a strong up-trend, I was able to limit losses and get many shots at establishing an entry at a decent turning point. If I can better classify environments to aim for particular a particular direction of trade, I think the system would definitely get some pretty successful results.
Net Result: -$162.50