Magic Numbers 1/8/2007 Monday

T

thehangingman

This isnt a journal. Just want to record the following observations about the indexes. I will update this every Monday:

Above 50 day MA High pnt 50 day MA
Nasdaq COMPQ= Yes 2470 2415
DJIA Yes 12580 12275
SP500 Yes 1431 1401
RUSS2000 No 801 781
NDX Yes 1799 1771
SP100 Yes 665 651
RUSS1000 Yes 777 760
SPmidcaps No 822 802
SPsmlcaps No 407 397
Russ3000 Yes 830 812
Wilsh5000 Yes 14405 14091

High point is most recent highest high achieved in the index.

Observations:

Nasdaq-100 is the strongest index followed by the S&P100

Total market just scraping the 50 day moving average.

Small and Midcaps appearing weak and under the 50 day moving averages. Smallcaps are the weakest.
 
If the NDX can make a move past 1805 it could be back to the 1820 range where it has been twice since mid November. Would place shorts around the 1835-1840 area.
 
Each individual index needs to get above the high point to move up further. So far, each index has been stumbling up and down between the high point and the 50 day (except for the small-midcap exceptions).

This can mean one of two things:

1. The small-midcaps are the first to stumble and the larger caps will be the next to follow.

2. There is truly a turnaround into large cap growth type stocks.

I did look through the Vanguard mutual funds and saw the Vanguard Growth equity fund which is known as the "suicide fund" is outperforming all of the other mutual funds for the first time in many many years. This is a startling sign.

Quote from S2007S:

If the NDX can make a move past 1805 it could be back to the 1820 range where it has been twice since mid November. Would place shorts around the 1835-1840 area.
More...
 
NDX just made a break over 1799. I looked through the components and it appears that Apple, Sears, and RIMM are responsible.

Since this is all about a cell phone that hasnt been produced or sold yet, Im very cautious about this move.
 
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